China’s decision to boost investment in railway infrastructure at home and abroad has both security and economic implications for India, according to experts.

Beijing’s rail hopes for Asia were highlighted last month following the announcement of a $2 billion deal to link Tehran with the town of Khosravi along the border with Iraq. Iranian officials have explained that this could one day be part of an expanded rail network that links Iran with both Iraq and Syria.

In the longer term, the Iran rail link could even expand into the landlocked countries of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and even Kashgar in China.

The China-Iran deal follows hard on the heels of another announcement that Beijing has started work on a strategic rail network, another $2 billion project, that will connect Lhasa with the city of Xigaze along the borders of India, Bhutan and Nepal.

The length of operational railways jumped from 53,000 km in 1980 to 79,000 km in 2008, making China third in the world for railway mileage after the US and Russia. It is also now the world’s largest passenger carrier and accounts for more than 25 per cent of world’s rail passenger traffic.

“The Chinese have wishes, they have hopes”, explains Prof Niklas Swanstrom, Programme Director of the Central-Asia Caucasus Institute at John Hopkins University in the US. He says the grand plan is a trans-Eurasian link that would dramatically reduce transport time and costs.

Asked how large is the intended rail infrastructure that China hopes to build in Central Asia, Swanstrom told The Tribune, “I don’t know the exact length but it goes from China and Central Asia into Iran, but also in their wildest imagination it also connects India, it connects the Middle East. Quite a few people see this as a potential life nerve for the Chinese government when it comes to trade.”

Some countries in Central Asia are concerned that new rail links could facilitate future Chinese military intervention, although Swanstrom questions whether such fears are justified.

“When you go to Kyrgyzstan, as well as Mongolia, they have historical luggage of the Chinese as aggressors, which is not necessarily true, but it lingers on as a fear of the large Chinese neighbour. In Mongolia…they are terrified of having a railway link to China because they are afraid the Chinese will use it to invade them.

“Of course that’s not going to happen, that’s not in the Chinese interest at all. But of course with infrastructure, transport infrastructure, comes a level of dependence, a level of interaction, that would be uncomfortable for many of the states.” If and when the Chinese authorities manage to construct a pan-Asia rail network, it will dramatically reduce the travelling time for commercial goods exported to Europe.

Currently, it takes 44 days by sea to transport heavy goods from Shanghai to Rotterdam. An overland rail route would cut the travelling time to 11 days. Although Europe would benefit from improved rail links, Swanstrom believes that the Chinese have their eyes on India as the ultimate grand prize that will result from a successful rail transport strategy. “Let’s not forget that the grand prize is India”, he argues. “They may be rivals but there’s a lot of potential trade between China and India. A couple of years from now there will be a boom in trade. Improved and different infrastructure will boost that further.” Swanstrom’s assessment, including his conviction that a Chinese rail network could one day extend to India, is shared in part at least by Professor Alka Acharya of Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi.

Asked if India’s policy makers worry about the security impact of a Chinese rail connection to India’s borders, she comments, “Obviously in the present context that’s the primary consideration. But the moment we start visualising a scenario of the lines coming up to here, even extending the line upto Kathmandu, it’s a reality impinging on us faster than we thought.

“So somewhere, the security implications notwithstanding, the implications of such connectivity in terms of economic benefits should start percolating to the policy makers. The point is you can’t stop it. You’re not doing it yourself, your neighbours are openly welcoming them. So what do you do? Sit and sulk or be part of this process? I think there would be a very positive reaction, particularly from South East Asian countries, if India were to announce its involvement here.”

“The first thing would be to announce one’s intent to be part of this, either through investment, which would be the easiest thing. The other thing would be some kind of joint venture and maybe some technological inputs as well.”