M A I N   N E W S

Cheers on monsoon front
Likely to hit Kerala around Monday
Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service

New Delhi, May 29
Amid all the sadness that India witnessed for the past one week there appears to be some cheer from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which yesterday said that the southwest monsoon is also set to arrive over the southern-most tip of India, Kerala, around Monday and progress further in ensuing days.

In its latest forecast, India’s weather forecast department also said the annual rains could advance up to south Konkan and Goa, along the west coast, as also some parts of the northeast by June 10.

After a bad monsoon last year, this is precisely what people across India had been praying for.

The outlook, based on interpretation of meteorological conditions and numerical weather models, also has some relief for people in north and central India, sweltering under unprecedentedly high temperatures. Several people have lost their lives in the past one week due to heatwave conditions in many parts of the country.

The IMD said heat wave conditions would subside from northwest and central India with the occurrence of occasional thundershowers in association with western disturbances.

The IMD on May 14 had predicted that monsoon would arrive over Kerala on May 30 with a model error of 4 days and a normal monsoon in its first official forecast for the 2010 season. But the occurrence of cyclone Laila was not seen as a good sign by some meteorologists.

However, the latest IMD prediction finally puts to rest all doubts regarding any adverse affects Laila might have had on monsoon by stealing away moisture in the area.

As per the weather office, preliminary analysis of data indicates that mean monthly temperature of March and April were highest during the last 100 years. This year summer has been severe with heat wave conditions prevailing over many parts of northwest and central India.

May also has been warmer than normal with severe heat wave conditions prevailing in many parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and heat wave conditions in northwest and central India. Maximum temperatures of more than 45° C have been experienced in many parts of these regions.

Better circulation features are conducive for monsoon during June 4 and 10 with strengthening of the cross equatorial flow over south Arabian Sea. Models are also indicating increase of rainfall over the west coast of India during this week. “Under these meteorological conditions, there is also possibility of advance of monsoon upto south Konkan and Goa along the west coast and also over parts of northeastern states,” the IMD said.

After the severe drought last year, the performance of the monsoon is extremely crucial for agriculture. With monsoon showing some positive sign, there are reports of farmers beginning with early sowing kharif crops in places.

As per official data till May 28, rice plantation is down by around 6 per cent to 337,000 hectares this kharif season from 361,000 hectares in the same period last year. Officials say sowing will pick up pace once full monsoon season starts.