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Frontier of militancy Trouble for Koda |
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Cheap connectivity
Another Great Game
The shopkeepers
Containing Russia Lessons for US, Russia from Cuban crisis Veils increase harassment in Egypt
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Frontier of militancy Pakistan’s North-West continues to remain in the news mostly for wrong reasons. Large parts of the NWFP, bordering Afghanistan, are under the virtual control of the elements associated with Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. And not far away, one of their activists, a young suicide bomber, killed 32 persons outside the emergency ward of the district hospital in Dera Ismail Khan on Tuesday. Most victims were there to mourn the death of a Shia leader in an incident that occurred earlier in the day. This indicated that the killings could be linked to the Shia-Sunni clashes continuing in the province for some time. The police also claimed that what happened near the district hospital showed that the sectarian crisis was getting deeper with every passing day. But the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan claimed that the suicide bomb attack was the handiwork of this outfit and had nothing to do with the sectarian problem. This means that terrorists, well entrenched in the border areas, were out to avenge the deaths of their comrades-in-arms in the army operations in the Bajaur Agency and the Swat valley. A number of those injured in the blast near the hospital were police personnel. The Tehrik also warned that it would continue to strike against the security forces until the anti-militancy operations were stopped in the NWFP. This is an open challenge to the might of the state, which must be met by the government in Islamabad. A decisive fight against militancy is more in the interest of Pakistan than any other country. The carrot and stick policy adopted by the Pakistan government, according to its own admissions, is not really successful. Entering into deals with the militant outfits has not only worsened the situation in Pakistan’s tribal areas and elsewhere, but also in Afghanistan. Taliban militants, trained and armed in Pakistan’s tribal districts, have been causing havoc in parts of Afghanistan. The NATO forces engaged in the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan are upset about Pakistan’s role in giving shelter to militants in the name of buying peace. That could be one reason why Pakistan Army Chief Gen Ashfaque Kiyani flew to Kabul to meet the commander of the NATO forces in Afghanistan soon after President Pervez Musharraf submitted his resignation. Whatever the truth, terrorism deserves to be fought on a priority basis.
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Trouble for Koda The
withdrawal of support by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha to the Madhu Koda government has plunged Jharkhand into yet another bout of political uncertainty. Governor Syed Sibtey Razi has asked the Chief Minister to prove his majority in the State Assembly within a week. The JMM supremo, Mr Shibu Soren, has been eyeing the chief ministerial chair for quite some time. Independents hold the key to governance in the state (the Chief Minister himself is an Independent). In the 81-member hung House, the JMM has 17 MLAs, Independents nine, the Congress nine and the Rashtriya Janata Dal seven. The Congress and the RJD are supporting the government from outside. The Opposition BJP has 30 MLAs and its ally, the Janata Dal (United), seven. This is the fourth time that Jharkhand is facing political uncertainty since the 2005 Assembly elections. Earlier, Governor Sibtey Razi, in a questionable decision, had installed Mr Soren as the chief minister but had to sack him after nine days since he did not have the numbers. Mr Arjun Munda (BJP) replaced him, only to be dethroned by Mr Koda in September 2006. Even as Mr Soren has been exerting pressure on the Congress to help him take over as the Chief Minister in exchange for his party’s support to the UPA government’s confidence motion in the Lok Sabha on July 22, disqualification is staring five ministers in the face. Speaker Alamgir Alam (Congress) holds the key to a decision on the issue which has gained urgency with the Jharkhand High Court issuing notices to these ministers while hearing a petition seeking their disqualification from the House under the anti-defection law. As the five ministers back Mr Koda, Mr Soren wants the Congress to step in and convince them to support him. Meanwhile, the manner in which the Koda government, even before seeking the confidence vote, took several major decisions on Monday and released funds to the tune of Rs 80 crore is highly improper. It approved the creation of 35 new blocks, 12 new ITIs, and nine family courts. As doubts have arisen on the majority of his government following the JMM’s withdrawal of support, the Chief Minister should have taken these decisions after proving his majority in the Assembly next week.
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Cheap connectivity The
internet has become the latest tool in the inexorable march towards making long-distance telephony cheaper and consumers will soon be able to make STD calls for as little as 10-40 paise, if the recommendations of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) to remove all curbs on internet telephony in the country are accepted. The TRAI move would allow internet users to use voice-over-internet protocol (VOIP) to link calls made over telephones and even mobile phones. Till now, only computer-to-computer VOIP calls were allowed. No wonder, Nasscom welcomed the step and said that it would benefit the IT and BPO industry to a large extent. There is no doubt that the suggestion will face opposition from the telecom industry, and it is not even certain that the Department of Telecommunications will accept TRAI’s recommendation. Among the factors that will be marshalled against this idea are the demand for “level playing field” by traditional long-distance players since VOIP may affect their revenue adversely, as well as likely negative impact on the price at which the 3G spectrum will be sold. Long-distance communication has changed dramatically from the expensive, inefficient monopolistic regime that the consumers faced in not-too-distant past. Today telecommunication has been revolutionised through competition and proactive measures. India has one of the cheapest rates in the world for mobile telephony, and this has directly resulted in a dramatic growth in the number of users, and thus the volume of traffic. It is expected that legalising VOIP and making it widely available will also lead to more voice traffic. From the consumer point of view, VOIP will herald a new era of really cheap long-distance telephony. While VOIP is not a panacea, it can open new vistas for communication, and TRAI’s recommendation deserves to be implemented at the earliest.
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Art does not reproduce the visible; rather, it makes visible. —Paul Klee
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Another Great Game
One
of the major premises of American foreign policy has been that with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, a policy of “containment” of a weakened, impoverished and dispirited Russia could succeed by an aggressive expansion of the NATO alliance to Russia’s borders, accompanied by the domination of oil and gas resources not only of Russia but also of the former Soviet Republics in Central Asia and the Caucasian regions by US and other western oil companies. The aim was to integrate the Caucasian republics like Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan into NATO and construct pipelines bypassing Russia, to carry oil and gas from countries like Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to ports like Ceyhan in Turkey, for onward shipment to the NATO partners of the US in Europe. The American strategy for access to Caucasian energy resources was spelt out by Ariel Cohen, a leading analyst of the Washington-based neo-conservative think tank, the Heritage Foundation, in 1999. Cohen then proclaimed: “US interests in the Caucasus boil down to providing guarantees of greater independence to Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan; controlling Iran; ensuring access to energy resources and precluding the possible revival of Russian imperial ambitions in the region.” To achieve these objectives, Cohen urged more political support for an oil pipeline project bypassing the Russian pipeline networks, from Azerbaijan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. He argued that if this was not done Russia and Iran would control access to and investment in a major part of the Caucasian energy resources, making the West dependent on Russia and Iran. As the pipeline was to be constructed through Georgia, Cohen urged the promotion of “security collaboration with Georgia” and expanding ties with Azerbaijan and Armenia as a “signal” to Moscow that its support for separatism in South Caucasus would lead to an end of US economic assistance. Worse still, Cohen urged that for the US to achieve its strategic objectives, it should open talks with leaders of North Caucasian ethnic groups --- a euphemism for promoting Muslim separatism in Russia’s Chechen and Dagestan regions. What Cohen and US policy-makers failed to anticipate was that under the leadership of Mr Vladimir Putin, Russia would stage a remarkable economic recovery. In less than a decade, Russia emerged as a global player, shrewdly using its position as holding the world’s largest resources of natural gas, the second largest resources of coal and as the world’s second biggest producer of oil, to effectively make America’s European allies look to it with respect and realism. Under Mr Putin’s leadership, Russia’s economy has grown at over 7 per cent annually since the year 2000. Russia has wielded diplomatic clout as a Permanent Member of the UN Security Council and its participation in groupings like the G-8, The Middle East Quartet, the six-power initiative on North Korea’s nuclear programme, APEC, OSCE and in the Russia-NATO Council. Russia has also expanded its power potential in crucial areas like its defence and space industries. Moreover, with significant Russian minorities in former Soviet Republics like Kazakhstan and Ukraine, Moscow has signalled that it will not remain unconcerned about how ethnic Russians are treated in these countries. Unmindful of these changes in power equations, the Americans have attempted to virtually encircle Russia by proposing missile defences in former Warsaw Pact countries and by encouraging Russia’s neighbours like Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. On the eve of the last NATO Summit in Bucharest in April this year, President Bush commended the “bold decision” of Ukrainian President Viktor Yuschenko to apply for NATO membership and for dispatching Ukrainian troops to Iraq and Afghanistan. Mr Bush added: “In Bucharest this week I will continue to make our position clear about our support for MAP (NATO membership) for Ukraine and Georgia”. The Kremlin strongly opposed NATO expansion and warned that it could lead to Moscow’s recognition of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia which had asserted their independence and were protected by Russian peacekeepers. While the US and the European Union were opposed to independence for these regions, Russia’s Parliament proclaimed that if the western powers could recognise the independence of Kosovo after military intervention, there was no reason why Russia could not do likewise in Georgia. Georgia’s immature US-educated President, Mr Mikhail Sakashvili, gave the Russians the opening they were looking for when, bolstered by arms supplies from Ukraine and expectations of full-scale American support, he mounted a military operation to establish control over South Ossetia. Within days, the Georgians were humiliatingly defeated by the Russians and forced to accept EU mediation by French President Nicholas Sarkozy. The proposals agreed to between Mr Sarkozy and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev include a provision for “international talks on the future status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and ways to provide for their security”. Russia views this as the EU acceptance of the impossibility of return to the pre-war status quo. With Chancellor Merkel of Germany and the French Prime Minister having opposed NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia, the US now finds that apart from support from the ever loyal British, its other major partners in NATO like Germany, France and Italy, which are increasingly dependent on Russian oil and natural gas, have no desire to embark on another Cold War against Russia. These developments are going to have profound implications on global politics in the coming years. The Americans are not going to give up their attempts to encircle Russia. The Russians, in turn, could make American diplomacy on issues like the nuclear programmes of North Korea and Iran very difficult, should the Americans become confrontational. Former Soviet republics like Kazakhstan, which have huge energy resources, will now become more cautious in their dealings with the US out of rear of Russian reactions. In the face of such rivalry from Russia, the Americans will now seek closer ties with Beijing --- a development of some importance for India and the balance of power in Asia. India has traditionally had close relations with Russia. New Delhi would be well advised to ensure that on energy-related issues like the proposed pipelines with Iran and Turkmenistan and developments in Central Asia, it pays greater attention to Russian policies. Moreover, Indian diplomacy should seek to promote a dialogue between the US on the one hand and Russia and Iran on the other on issues like the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, where US policy has been to exclude these countries as far as possible. Even though the Americans were inclined to show accommodation of Chechen separatism earlier, they now have a better understanding of Russian imperatives after the terrorist strikes of
9/11.
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The shopkeepers Napoleon’s contemptuous reference to the British as a nation of shopkeepers has been echoed over and over through the centuries to express dislike for that race. I too have often used this phrase because my very limited experience with Britishers, has made me perceive them as arrogant and patronising, lacking in human warmth and selfish to the core. But my experience has also taught me that shopkeepers, they indeed, are, but shopkeepers who have developed their tradesmen’s skill to a fine art — an art that Indian tradesmen, poised as they are on the brink of a retail revolution, would do well to learn something from. On my fist trip to England I went into a large department store to buy a few pieces of porcelain. As I tried to make my choice the sale’s assistant came discreetly up to me and said: “You could, perhaps, wait till next Monday sir, Royal Doulton will be on sale.” I did go back the following Monday and availed of a 60 percent discount. Twenty odd years on I still exchange the annual Christmas card with that shop assistant. In India I went to buy new curtains. I made my choice and, just before I gave the length required, I asked if there was any chance of a sale in the near future. “Not till Diwali,” the shop assistant said firmly. The paper, next morning, carried a full page advertisement from the same store announcing the start of a 40 percent sale. The store has without doubt, the best selection of furnishing fabrics in the entire country but I have not gone back to it in 18 years. Last year, from a Reebok factory outlet I bought a pair of shoes. When I opened the box at home I found, to my dismay, two right shoes. I took them back but the manager only shrugged and said I should have checked my purchase before leaving the shop. I could leave my number with them and, if the customer who got the two left shoes returned, they would get in touch with me. I was reminded of the Swaroski butterfly I had bought at their outlet at Heathrow, just before I returned from my most recent trip to England. On opening the box, I found that one of the tentacles was slightly damaged. There were no splinters of glass in the box so I presumed that it was already damaged when it was packed. I still had the invoice so, purely on an off chance, I dashed off a letter to the address given on it. A few weeks later I received another small box. The enclosed letter apologised for the mistake. Yes they said, it was a damaged piece, but the salesgirl was new and had forgotten to take it off the display shelf. They were enclosing another Swaroski piece with their compliments. I am sure that when Napoleon, astute man that he was, made that remark all those long years ago, there was, beneath the contempt, a grudging, sneaking admiration, an admiration that I cannot help but
share.
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Containing Russia After
eight years of division within Europe on geo-political strategy, is the Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, building a new sense of purpose in Europe and between the EU and the US? Tuesday’s Nato meeting saw the hitherto pro-Russian German foreign minister agreeing with the firm line taken by Britain’s David Miliband about Russian behaviour both in launching the land, sea and air assault of Georgia and the cynicism with which the Kremlin has ignored its pledges to pull out its tanks and troops. Far from being a chess match in which the Russian grandmaster knocks a pawn off the board, all of Europe is looking hard at what the Putin doctrine means and it does not like what it sees. Last week, President Sarkozy was patting himself on the back after his high-speed shuttle between Moscow and Tbilisi, while Berlin believed its decision to block Georgia’s access to Nato was the correct policy. Today the mood has darkened. Mr Sarkozy now says Russia must withdraw completely from all of Georgia. Mrs Merkel says Georgia can join Nato. Poland rushes to sign a deal with America on missile defence. Ukraine now moves to the frontline as Kiev looks west to Nato and the EU in Brussels for support, rather than north to Moscow for orders. The Putin doctrine was summed up avant la lettre by America’s post-war expert on Russia, George Kennan. He noted that Russia sees its neighbours as vassals or enemies. Neither Ukraine nor Georgia will accept vassal status. When Poland and the Baltic states sought to join Nato, they were told it might make life awkward for relations with Russia. They joined Nato, then the EU, and have never looked back. Putin apologists in the West like to blame America and the Bush-Cheney years for worsening relations with Russia. Yet Senator Obama will not allow himself to be outflanked with accusations of being soft on the Kremlin. Putin has given the American arms industry and Democratic as well as Republican neo-cons a perfect opening to launch a new Cold War. The Kremlin wants to drive a wedge between its neighbours and other European states, and between America and Europe. And in its version of Euroscepticism, Moscow wants to disaggregate EU member states into competing nations that reject EU unity. How should Europe and Britain respond? David Miliband is seen on the Continent as leader of the EU nations that want firm language. He should now take a lead in forging EU unity on the basis of a policy that could be called Kennan-plus. George Kennan developed the concept of containment in place of the confrontation and “roll-back” advocated by hardliners after the Soviet occupation of half of Europe. Today we need a containment and co-operation policy with Russia. As Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform points out, Russia is weaker than Putin’s rhetoric implies. It has an unhealthy shrinking population the size of Bangladesh and a GDP per capita lower than Equatorial Guinea. To be sure, Europe needs Russian oil and gas and Russia needs European investment under FDI. So co-operation aimed at drawing Russia closer to European norms of an open market economy should remain policy. David Cameron is wrong to say visa restrictions should be enforced against Russian businessmen. But on the political front, it is time to admit that efforts since the early 1990s to be friendly to Russia have failed. Far from the West seeking to humiliate Russia, the doors of every western institution have been opened to Moscow. Her generals sit as observers at Nato meetings. Russians have been made welcome at the Council of Europe. Russia is European by culture and it is in Europe that the bulk of Russians live. It took many patient years of containment before Sovietism expired. Sadly, Russia has refused the chance to become a full, open, partner of Europe on the basis of democracy, rule of law and respect for European norms and values. A new policy based on as much containment as necessary and as much co-operation as possible is needed. Conservative neo-con language is as useless as those who find excuses for Putin’s doctrine of anti-West aggression. Russia has insisted on asserting national interests and defied international institutions and rules. Britain should fashion a containment-cooperation policy but do so as part of Europe. If not, the sabre-rattlers in both Moscow and Washington will resume their old game. By arrangement with
The Independent
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Lessons for US, Russia from Cuban crisis The
war of Russia against Georgia followed by a missile defence agreement between the US and Poland has given rise to new tensions between the US and Russia. Russia launched an attack on Georgia just before the finalisation of the missile defence agreement. Russia has repeatedly mentioned that it will respond to the missile defence programmes by military-technical methods. The Russian message is clear that it is willing to take military actions against the US allies in eastern Europe. However, Poland signed an MoU on August 15, 2008, under which it agreed to host 10 interceptors of the US missile defence programe. Russia, in turn, has threated a nuclear attack on Poland and plans to supply nuclear warheads to submarines, cruisers and fighter bombers of the Baltic fleet based in Kaliningrad, which is a Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania. This situation is similar to the Cuban missile crisis of October, 1962, which had brought the two super powers on the brink of a nuclear war. The US U-2 spy plane informed that missile bases were being built in Cuba by the Soviet Union. The US ordered a naval blockade of Cuba so as to prevent the Soviet Union supply more missiles. Khrushchev announced on October 28, 1966, that he would dismantle such installations and take back the missiles to the Soviet Union. The Cuban missile crisis offers lessons for defusing the present situation. First, the advantages of exercising restrain. Besides a naval blockade, the US could have taken any military action like air strike against the established missile base in Cuba. The US took no such action that could result into instant retaliation by the Soviet Union. A similar approach can be adopted in the present context by Russia. Russia should understand that if it carried out a nuclear or military attack against Poland, the US would retaliate. Also, any military action of Russia similar to Georgia would result its international isolation. Secondly, there is need to understand each other’s viewpoint. Fidel Castro and the Soviet Union were right in creating a secret missile base in Cuba as they feared an attack by the US. Similarly, Russia should understand that the US is worried about the missile development nuclear weapons programme of Iran. Although, Iran does not have the capability to strike the US or its allies, its possibility cannot be ruled out in future. On the other hand, the US should understand that Russia is worried due to the US policy of expanding NATO. If the US wants to have Russian confidence on missile defence, it should give up its policy of NATO expansion. Last, but not the least, there was an important lesson for the US from the so-called “missile gap” of 1957. In the late 1950s, the US was worried about advances in the Soviet missile and bomber strength. The Gaither Committee was appointed by the Eisenhower administration to examine the issue and it mentioned the existing missile gap between the US and the Soviet Union. However, the reality was that Soviet leader Khrushchev had deliberately exaggerated Soviet accomplishments. This prevented the American side from having war with Russia over the Cuban missile crisis. Most of the Russian nuclear assets are becoming obsolete with each passing year. Russia has decided to cut the strategic arsenal to 1,700 warheads from 10,000 warheads during the cold war. Russia has also been forced to give up hundreds of aging Soviet-era intercontinental ballistic missiles. The military could afford only 10 new Topol ICBMs a year by way of replacement due to budgetary constrains. Therefore, it does not seem likely that Russia will commit the grave mistake of a nuclear strike against Poland. Russia could form its own block against the US with China and Iran. Russia could also proliferate nuclear and missile technology to Iran. Besides, Russia can disturb global oil markets as it is the second largest oil producer in the world. On July 8, 2008, the supply of oil to the Czech Republic was cut by half by Russia. History says that small regional conflicts are converted into big wars if appropriate action is not taken in time.
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Veils increase harassment in Egypt In
a Muslim country where the numbers of women wearing the veil are rising, and so - by most accounts - are incidents of groping and catcalls in the streets, the message in ads circulating anonymously in e-mails here in Egypt is clear: “A veil to protect, or eyes will molest,” one warns. The words sit over two illustrations, one comparing a veiled woman, her hair and neck covered in the manner known to Muslims as hijab, to a wrapped candy, untouched and pure. The other picture shows an unveiled woman, hair flying wildly and hip jutting, next to a candy that has had its wrapper stripped off and is now covered in flies. No group has asserted responsibility for the online ads, which so far have drawn little attention outside Egyptian blogs. But the campaign comes at a time of converging debate on two keenly felt issues in Egypt: the growing social pressure on Muslim women to veil themselves; and the rising incidence of sexual harassment of women by strangers. Surprisingly, some Egyptian women say their veils don’t protect against harassment, as the ads argue, but fuel it. A survey released this summer supports the view. “These guys are animals. If they saw a female dog, they would harass it,” Hind Sayed, 20, a sidewalk vendor in Cairo’s Mohandisseen district, said, staring coldly at a knot of male vendors who stood grinning a few feet from her. In accord with her interpretation of Islamic law, which says women should dress modestly, Sayed wore a flowing black robe and black veil. They covered all but her hands and her pale face with its drawn-on, expressive eyebrows. Still, Sayed said, she daily endures suggestive comments from male customers and fellow vendors. “I think a woman who wears hijab can be more provocative to them,” Sayed said. “The more covered up you are, the more interesting you are to them.” Female travelers consider Egypt one of the worst countries in the world for harassment on the streets - second only to Afghanistan, where the Taliban forced all women behind the veil and into seclusion in their homes. The United States and Britain both warn female visitors in travel advisories of possible unwanted attention or sexual attacks in Egypt. This summer, Egyptian lawmakers called Britain’s advisory a slur; Britain responded that more female British tourists were harassed and assaulted, even raped, while in Egypt than in any other country. Egypt’s most notorious case occurred last year when two fully veiled Gulf Arab women were surrounded by dozens of men on a street and molested. Bystanders filmed the episode and posted it on YouTube. It embarrassed Egypt’s government and sparked the first public debate on sexual harassment in Egypt. A female lawmaker now is pushing legislation that would allow jail sentences for some forms of sexual harassment and discrimination. By arrangement with
LA Times-Washington Post
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