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Great expectations Time to quit |
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Unbridled inflation Oil price cut can help control inflation THE government, it seems, has run short of options to control inflation, which has flared to a new 13-year-high of 12.01 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India has raised the interest rates three times in two months to squeeze consumer spending and suppress demand, which has resulted in a slowdown of economic growth.
War on terror
A dirge for Sukhna
Decline of PU Why the Chinese think the world loves China Looking at living longer with less
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Great expectations WITH the “biggest show on earth” — as the Olympic Games is billed — opening in Beijing on Friday, China will be the cynosure of the world’s eyes. The first Olympics to be held in the world’s most populous nation has aroused much more than the usual excitement stirred by the Games. The curiosity about China being no less than the interest in the Olympic events, the sports festival will be a test of how China copes with the challenge of the world literally pouring in to the country behind the Great Wall. This edition of the Olympics is as much about the world coming to terms with the difference between the way it has perceived China and the way it experiences a global economic powerhouse under tight political control. The barrage of negative publicity — focused on China’s record of human rights, political freedom and its handling of protests by Tibetans — evident in the run-up to the Games has now receded. The events and the participants are now in the spotlight and the Chinese are nothing if not business-like when it comes to managing any enterprise, no matter how mammoth the venture. The spectacle will be no less riveting as it unfolds over the next fortnight, snagging eyeballs across the planet and pulling in the money for advertisements and sponsorships. The race between China and the US to top the medals tally lends a particular edge to Beijing 2008, with other top contenders, such as Britain for example, aiming no higher than the fourth place. This adds a dimension of political power play to the Games, which is increasingly driven by commercial considerations. If the Olympics is no longer about playing and the sporting spirit but solely about winning, that is very much in keeping with the commercial-competitive character of present-day sports. What is new is the undercurrent of politics and ideology driving the quest for gold medals in an attempt to set new standards of supremacy. For all that, there is nothing else in the world like the Olympic Games, and for this reason alone it must be watched and celebrated for unifying mankind in a microcosm where every individual exerts his utmost and aspires to the highest.
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Time to quit PAKISTAN
president General Pervez Musharraf has two options. He can use his
extraordinary powers to thwart the impeachment move against him or quit
gracefully. He seems to have opted for the former if his bravado is anything to
go by. It is too early to predict the consequences of his decision to stay on
in office, against the express wish of the ruling parties. He is banking on the fact that the ruling Pakistan People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League-N do not enjoy a two-thirds majority in Parliament, a precondition for impeachment of the president. Though the president has held meetings with other political parties, he is not yet certain about their support. In any case, Musharraf has been skating on thin ice. A PPP-PML-N joint statement has charged the president with violating the Constitution, weakening the Federation and causing an economic impasse. While these are debatable, the point that he has not adhered to the promise given to the Pakistan Supreme Court cannot be lost sight of. He had given an undertaking that he would seek a vote of confidence from the newly elected parliament and provincial assemblies. What to speak of seeking such a vote, he even preferred not to address Parliament for fear that it would cause him embarrassment. Had he been true to his promise, he would have resigned the moment the February elections showed that the verdict was against him. For starters, he had given a commitment that if the “King’s party” was defeated he would not wait to resign. The danger of a cornered president striking back with dissolution of Parliament and assemblies as it used to happen in the eighties and the nineties is too real to be scoffed at. Given the problems the General faced when he sacked some judges of the Supreme Court in November last, he is unlikely to resort to such “extra-constitutional means”. But then, Musharraf has always been unpredictable. What is apparent is that there is no love lost between him and the elected government. His election as president was also through questionable means. It is, therefore, in his own interest and in the interest of Pakistan that Musharraf should quit honourably. In doing so, he can avert a constitutional crisis. |
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Unbridled inflation THE government, it seems, has run short of options to control inflation, which has flared to a new 13-year-high of 12.01 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India has raised the interest rates three times in two months to squeeze consumer spending and suppress demand, which has resulted in a slowdown of economic growth. Sounding almost helpless, government representatives — Mr P. Chidambaram, Dr C. Rangarajan and Dr Montek Singh Ahluwalia —are trying to talk down inflation through the media. Inflation, they maintain, will fall to a single digit in six to eight months. That, however, depends largely on the global fuel and food prices. Inflation had jumped to double digits after the domestic oil prices were raised steeply in June. Fortunately, the crude prices have started declining. From a July high of $147 a barrel, the oil prices have slumped to $118 a barrel now. The government is not yet ready to cut the domestic prices. If it does take the plunge, the government can accelerate the downward pressure on commodity prices, send a positive signal all round and discourage hoarders. The stock markets have already cheered the fall in the fuel prices. The positive sentiment has got a further boost with the revival of the monsoon in August. This has brightened the prospects of paddy. However, pulses and edible oils will have to be imported in sufficient quantities to keep the prices in check. The government will have to move fast to enhance the availability of vegetables, fruits and foodgrains at affordable prices, especially to the poor through the public distribution system. It is not enough to depend solely on political rhetoric or the RBI, which has applied the brakes on money supply rather too hard. |
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Greatness is not in where we stand, but in what direction we are moving. We must sail sometimes with the wind and sometimes against it — but sail we must and not drift, nor lie at anchor. — Oliver Wendell Holmes
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War on terror
If the war against terrorism and extremism could be won merely by making bombastic statements and solemn declarations of resolve and commitment, then Pakistan would have won this war a long time ago. Alas, in the real world, pious intentions alone never work, especially if there is no resolute action or well-thought out game-plan - political, economic, military, administrative and cultural - underpinning these intentions. Therefore, if Pakistan is seen to be badly losing the war on terror and Islamic radicalism, then it should come as no surprise. As Khaled Ahmed, perhaps the most astute and far-sighted political commentator in Pakistan, puts it: “after its defeat in Somalia and Iraq, its [Al-Qaida’s] victory seems inevitable in Pakistan so far.” Bizarre though this may sound, the fact is that despite having lost more than 1000 security force personnel and a few thousand civilian lives in terrorist strikes, Pakistan has still not joined the fight against the Islamic terrorists with the earnestness that is required. Simply put, the war on terror is being lost in Pakistan because so far only one side has fought this war and that is the Taliban and other Al-Qaida affiliates. The half-hearted half-measures taken by the Pakistani state — whether it is the much-vaunted military operations or even the political measures — have only worsened the situation. Not only have these measures emboldened the Islamists and reduced the aura and authority of the state, they have abandoned the people to the mercies of the Islamists. The so-called peace agreements that the government has entered into with “peace-loving elements” are nothing if they are not surrender documents. Through these the state has, for all practical purposes, conceded the basic functions of governance like maintaining law and order and dispensing justice to the Islamists. And to give the devil his due, the Islamists are doing a far better job than the government in the areas they control. Common crime has been curbed and disputes are being settled in un-official Shariah courts in the areas that have come under the sway of the Taliban. So much so that people even from places like Peshawar are approaching the Taliban for justice. The institutions of the Pakistani state have become totally dysfunctional and have been replaced by Islamist warlords who have set up their own parallel government in the areas they control. Nothing symbolises the crumbling authority of the state better than the conference held in the heart of Islamabad by the most extreme Islamists to mark the first anniversary of the Lal Masjid operation by the Pakistan army. While the Islamists were openly inciting people to wage a holy war against the state, the government was a mute spectator to the challenges and threats being hurled against it. Worse, on one hand the policy of unabashed appeasement of the Islamists is compromising the authority of the state by the hour, on the other hand the total absence of faith and trust in the state is leading people to believe that what is happening is nothing but a drama being orchestrated by the infamous agencies of the state to either destabilise the elected government or worse, as part of the policy of strategic defiance of the Americans. While there could be an element of truth in these conspiracy theories, there is no escaping the fact that the state is losing control of the situation at an alarming pace. Shockingly, as the state withers away, the political and military establishment is showing no signs of urgency. For them, its still pretty much business as usual. It is difficult to say whether this is the result of ignorance about the ground reality or it is a function of some convoluted political calculation, or even whether it stems from a misplaced faith in the ability of the Pakistan army and its intelligence agencies to switch on and switch off the jihadi activity. But clearly, there are signs that the patron-client relationship between the Pakistan army and the Islamists has been turned on its head. And yet, if those in charge of Pakistan’s destiny continue to believe that they can play the dangerous double-game — on the one hand making a show of fighting the Islamists and on the other using them for strategic gains in Afghanistan and Kashmir — then as the sidelined PPP leader Amin Fahim says: Only Allah can save Pakistan. Through their inaction and political games, the army, America and the politicians are probably paving the way for Allah to step in. The army is more interested in regaining its image than in saving the country. It wants the politicians to take ownership, and responsibility, for sustained military operations against the Islamists. The politicians are engaged in their own petty point scoring and are chary or too scared to take an open and unambiguous position against the Islamists. Except the MQM, no other political party is willing to stand up and be counted. The PML(Nawaz) is trying to keep its right-wing vote intact and therefore prefers to appease the Islamists. The ANP is trying to keep its Pashtun nationalist credentials intact and wants to use the dysfunctional tribal jirgas in a bid to revive Pashtun traditions of conflict resolution. The clerics party, JUI, is trying to keep its mullah network intact by playing both sides of the game in a desperate attempt to stay politically relevant and retain its monopoly over Islamic politics. And the PPP is trying to keep its government intact by keeping its allies happy and at the same time pleading helplessness before the Americans because technically President Musharraf calls the shots in the troubled Tribal Areas. As for the Americans they have an election on hand and the world can go take a jump for all they care. More importantly, even if the Pakistani state manages to militarily defeat the Islamists, it will merely amount to winning one small part of the larger war that is being fought for the soul of Pakistan. If anything, even as the military effort against the Islamists gets underway, Pakistan will have to make radical changes in the administrative, political and economic spheres to restore the majesty of the state in the eyes of the people. Even more important, Pakistan will have to reform its educational system which glorifies jihad and martyrdom, something that the Pakistani scholar Dr Manzur Ejaz calls “intellectual talibanisation”. In short, Pakistan will have to undergo a drastic ideological transformation if it wants to defeat the Islamists comprehensively. The separation of religion and state must become a reality and must be made acceptable to the people if Pakistan does not want to be engulfed by the fires of jihad. The war that Pakistani claims to be fighting against radicalism and extremism has to be fought not only militarily but also ideologically. Until now, the Pakistani mainstream has simply shoved this critical aspect of this war under the carpet and even the first small step in trying to combat the Islamists forcefully on ideological grounds has not been taken. Quite clearly then, Pakistan faces a long-drawn battle and the longer the principal players take to get their act together, the more difficult this battle will become. The great danger is that time is running out fast and unless the first steps are taken soon to reverse the tide of talibanisation sweeping through the country, it might be too late to save Pakistan, even for
Allah.
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A dirge for Sukhna
IT is the middle of summer. I take a deep bracing breath of the air fragrant with monsoon flowers whilst starting my walk down Sukhna Lake. The gentle warmth of dormant summer in the air numbs my senses. Birds chirp as I walk slowly, along the never-ending array of trees that seems to slowly curve with the grey blue lake besides it. The sky seems to enclose my world from all around in a perfect blue umbrella, scattered with giant cumulo-nimbus clouds. Suddenly raindrops splay my clothes in wet blotches. They hit the parched earth releasing the fragrance of wet mud. As I hurry for shelter, I see the lake choked with green weeds. Where’s the water, I wonder. Has global warming notched up another victim? My eyes moisten in the summer rain as I think back nostalgically to the times when the Sukhna runneth over with muddy blue and the sluice gates at the regulator end were opened to release the excess flow into the Sukhna choe. Newspapers report the wettest June in 160 years and the Sukhna isn’t its usual silver blue. Instead, its surface is mottled with brown and green, the water barely holding its head high above brown silt embankments and the perky green of tall green rushes. Soon plastic wrappers, cardboard cartons, earthen diyas and “pooja samagri” tangle themselves in the green undergrowth. There was a time when schoolchildren in their cheery multitudes led the annual “Shramdaan”. Yes, we have known for some years that the water flowing into the lake was laden with silt from the Shivaliks. This silt was being deposited on the lake bed, raising its floor each year and reducing its capacity to hold water. Hence when the monsoon sets in recharging the water-table elsewhere, the Sukhna can store but a scanty measure of water in its shallow basin. As the mercury rises with summer temperatures, this skinny liquid layer evaporates to show the balding silt patches of the Sukhna in all their shameful misery. Then banks of weeds, grasses and reeds raise their verdant fronds to form an embankment, and the lake shrinks further afar. I am no longer concerned about the changes. I am worried that, the ever- changing Sukhna, my friend, may not be there for me always. The Sukhna is dying and what saddens me is that no one is singing it a dirge. So while on the one end, the administration plans Shikaras and other water- based sport at the other end, the “Sukhna Lake”, an institution as old as Chandigarh, is slowly ebbing away. Unless, Chandigarhites hear its choked cry for life and do something to save it — and this time “Shramdaan” isn’t going to be
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Decline of PU AS an alumnus and also a former teacher who retired more than a decade ago after serving Panjab University for over 30 years, one feels dismayed if the institution of great learning started losing its moorings. The history of the university reveals that the visionary in Sardar Dayal Singh Majithia, an ardent follower of Raja Rammohun Roy, conceived the propounding of Punjab University (then spelled with vowel 'u' instead of 'a') in 1882 on the pattern of the University of London, or like the ones in the three presidency towns of Calcutta, Bombay and Madras. The avowed objective was the promotion of an enlightened system of education embracing "mathematics, natural philosophy, anatomy and chemistry and other useful sciences which the nations of Europe had carried to a degree of perfection that has raised them above the inhabitants of other parts of the world." Until only a few decades ago, the university enjoyed the proximity and ambience of such men of letters as Dr. Mulk Raj Anand, Acharaya Hazari Prasad Dewedi, Prof M.R. Sahni, Prof P.N. Mehra and Prof G.P. Sharma, who enriched the faculty and made a distinct contribution in their respective fields and also prepared a generation of students to carry forward their crusade. However, of late we have started witnessing that the tradition of scholarship and learning is on the wane. A perceptive reader, while expressing his concern about the falling standard of education and research, has grudgingly asked only recently (Chandigarh Tribune, May 24, 2008): "Does PU have an environment and requisite infrastructure for carrying out genuine research? Having got a Ph.D., how many faculty members of the university have contributed on regular basis to journals." But why is this decline? A drastic cut in financial resources is certainly one of the most major contributory factors. Imagine how the university could survive if for its bare sustenance it receives only Rs 16 crore per annum against its statutory share of about Rs 38 crore from the Punjab Government! Likewise the Central Government pays only Rs 33 crore against its committed share of about Rs 58 crore. This means the total deficit of Rs 96 crore for the year 2008-2009, to be met in the ratio of 40:60 by the Punjab Government and the Central Government, is to be managed with a paltry sum of only just one-half of the total! Moreover, this amount hardly takes into account the expanding needs for research and development. Such a severe constraint in resources prompted Panjab University, following the lead of various other educational institutions across the country, to adopt the alternate course of generating finances through the allocation of seats for non-resident Indians (NRIs). In this category, however, students came to be admitted in every department of the university who were either sponsored by NRIs, or even those who were ready to pay fee in Indian currency equivalent to US dollars. Unwittingly perhaps, in this we are increasing the prospect of commercialisation of education. Certainly this is not the enlightened objective for which Panjab University was founded. In this backdrop, the question that comes to the fore is that if the Central Government is most willing to set up as many as 16 central and 14 world-class universities in India for creating new opportunities for quality education, why should there be any resistance or reservation on the part of either the Punjab or Central Government for not assisting Panjab University in pursuing the same objective? If the Central Government, in order "to attract and retain good faculty for higher education" could think of such lavish or luxurious ways as 'offering membership of premium clubs like the Delhi Golf Club and the Delhi Gymkhana Club to prospective teachers', it sounds strange not to save PU, a sinking centre of excellence, by providing the requisite financial assistance either directly or by adopting it as a central university. The non-response of the Punjab Government as to what would happen to its existing obligation of 40 per cent share towards PU should be of no concern to the central government for the purpose of granting the status of Central University and thereby bailing it out of the financial crisis. Both in terms of location and infrastructure, including its nomenclature, the character of the university would remain unchanged. The Punjab Government (The Tribune, August 8) has conveyed that it has absolutely no objection if PU is declared a Central university provided no change in status of all colleges hitherto affiliated to PU in the state is effected. Such a pre-condition in our view does not distract us from the basic objective of promoting excellence: it rather encourages to carry forward the tradition of teaching and research to colleges in the muffisils. Moreover, this condition of continued affiliation, in turn, augments the financial resources of PU at least to the tune of Rs 5 crore per annum. Since both these consequential benefits are also in conformity with the Central objective of promoting educational excellence, the Central Government should have no hesitation to accept such a conducive condition. The golden opportunity of upgrading PU is available now at the moment when the Central Government is contemplating setting up institutions of higher education and national significance irrespective of cost considerations. If this opportunity is lost, the gloomy prospect of turning the great social institution of learning into a "big educational commercial mall" looms large catering to the needs of the elite and prosperous only. The writer is a former Professor of Laws and UGC Emeritus Fellow, Panjab University. |
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Why the Chinese think the world loves China THE Chinese people, it seems, are among the most satisfied on Earth. More than 80 percent told the Pew Research Center that they are satisfied with the country's economy and overall direction, and 65 percent think the government is doing a good job. Ninety-six percent think the Olympics will be a success, and 93 percent believe the Games will improve the country's image. Three-quarters think China will win the most gold medals. Even accounting for distortions that arise in polling in authoritarian states, the numbers are impressive: China is brimming with optimism. Three in four Chinese think the world likes China, while only one in 10 thinks foreigners don't like the country. More than 80 percent believe China takes other countries' interests into account when formulating foreign policy. Just 3 percent think China's economic growth has a negative effect on other countries. Only 1 percent knew a lot about the recall of Chinese products for quality and safety reasons. Pew's Global Attitudes Survey of public opinion in 24 countries, released in June, makes clear that international opinion toward China is very different from what people in China think it is. Excluding results from China, the mean "favorable" rating for China in 21 countries for which tracking data are available is 46 percent, and in 15 of these countries China's favorability rating declined this year from last. Also in 15 countries, more people believe that China exerts a bad influence on their country than think it exerts a good influence. Across all countries in the poll, only 30 percent believe China takes the interests of other countries into account. Knowledge of problems with Chinese products is widespread. Other polls reveal a similar disconnect between how the Chinese think the world views China and how other countries actually view it. A recent BBC survey found that 90 percent of Chinese believe China's global influence is positive. The average opinion in the 23 countries for which tracking data is available was 47 percent. Essentially, the people of China think twice as many people in the world like their country as actually do. This isn't a gap; it's a chasm. And the information bubble around the Chinese people explains a lot. Consider the Chinese reaction to the Olympic torch protests this spring. More shock than anger, the sentiment underlying the people's responses was clear: How could foreigners behave so badly toward a country as loved and respected as China? An official from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs mournfully told me after the London and Paris protests in April: "China is smiling at the world, but the world is not smiling back." She stressed how hurt the feelings of the Chinese people were by protests of Beijing's human rights practices and its policy toward Tibet. Yet polling before the protests found widespread disapproval of Chinese policies toward Tibet in countries as diverse as India, South Korea, the United States and Germany. The fact that the Chinese people think the world loves China helps explain why it is so difficult to persuade Beijing to address human rights and other issues. The Chinese people, after all, see no need for changes to improve the country's image. In contrast, polls have shown that Americans are aware that the United States' image overseas has been badly damaged in recent years, and there is widespread agreement that work must be done to improve that image. In China, the Communist Party controls most of the information to which people have access, and that information does not include material showing how unpopular the country has become. If the Chinese eventually come to understand how the world sees their country, they will ask why its image is so poor. They will learn, then, that there is concern about China's economic growth and its impact on Western jobs and on the environment, as well as concern about China's military expansion. But most striking to the average Chinese may be the widely held view that their government does not respect personal freedoms. Majorities in 12 of 23 countries (including all of the top medal winners in the Athens Games except Russia) believe the Chinese government does not respect individual rights. In 10 countries, at least two-thirds hold that opinion. Only in four countries do a majority think the Chinese government respects personal freedoms. It is not known whether the Chinese people think their government respects human rights: Pew wasn't allowed to ask this question in China. By arrangement with
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Looking at living longer with less NOT long ago, I wrote that "near retirees," as we are now known, should consider working past the ages of 62 or 65 for all sorts of economic reasons, and we should salve our disappointment by doing some of the things now that we thought we would do in retirement – golfing in Florida or traveling in Europe. We should consider reducing our retirement savings to pay for these rewards because those dollars won't have much time to grow before we really do retire. But that was before the economy started dropping like an elevator that's had its cable cut. Now a new study warns that if we near retirees (ages 58 to 65) don't make substantial cutbacks in our current standard of living – by as much as a third – most of us will out-live our savings. "Unless workers aged 55 to 59 increase their saving substantially or work beyond age 65, they will be unable to maintain their current standard of living and will have to reduce their standard of living significantly more than today's retirees to minimize the risk of exhausting their financial assets," the study said. This means no golfing in Florida and no traveling in Europe. And no new cars and no eating out every night, while we're at it. The study was done by Ernst & Young and was commissioned by Americans for Secure Retirement. Researchers found that Americans aren't saving enough for retirement – nothing new there. But we are also underestimating how long we will live. Even if you have been saving like mad – stashing money in 401Ks and IRAs – this is a very bad time to be a near retiree. The market is in free fall, so whatever you have saved is evaporating. Inflation is rising, and it will eat away at what's left like Japanese beetles on a rose bush. General Motors pointed the way to the future when it stripped its salaried retirees of their health insurance, a commodity that costs thousands of dollars a year on the open market. And more and more companies are turning to lump-sum retirement distributions, handing employees a pillowcase full of money and telling them to figure out how to make it last until they are 105. The answer is the worst of both worlds. We are being told we have to live like we're retired, with all the coupon-clipping and the penny-pinching, but we still have to get up and go to work every day. That is, if you still have a job to go to. It is hard to focus on working an extra decade when your industry – newspapers for me, financial institutions for others – is melting away. Not everybody can work at Home Depot, you know. So, the solace I took when I realized that I wasn't going to be retiring early – that there could be trips and toys while I still earned a full paycheck and had my health – is all but gone. It is hard to gin up any enthusiasm to prepare for a phase of life that, if it ever gets here, will last too long. By arrangement with
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