M A I N   N E W S

Reservoir Study
Northern states face a climatic blow
Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service

New Delhi, December 9
Northern states, largely dependent upon perennial Himalayan rivers, will be the worst affected once predicted impacts of climate change become a reality in the next 30 to 40 years. It is with this view in mind that the Ministry of Environment and Forest is now undertaking a study to identify all reservoirs in the country for better adaptability with the future.

Considering that there is already a well-established correlation between climate change and farmers’ suicide, for states in Himalayan Gangetic plains like Punjab, Haryana, Utter Pradesh and Bihar, dependent on river systems that in turn depend upon glaciers, this could spell bad news. An on-going World Bank study has also pinpointed out the relationship between climate change and farmers' suicides in drought-prone villages of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.

In fact, “grim” is the word IIT professor A.K. Gosain used when asked to comment on the future of Himalayan systems dependent upon glaciers. Dr Gosian is one of the authors of NATCOM investigation on “Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of Indian river basin”. He has now been also entrusted upon to conduct the second phase of the study that will go in-depth to determine the baseline of how much intervention is required to manage the future.

Vulnerability of agriculture and water resources to climate variability and change are immense. With a 19 per cent contribution to the country’s GDP, agriculture employs two-thirds of the national workforce in the country and constitutes 10 per cent of the total exports, says a TERI draft report on vulnerability to climate variability and change in India.

Agriculture caters to the needs of other agro-processing industries that form the backbone of the Indian economy and serves as a major livelihood resource. As much as 66 per cent of the cultivable land is dependent upon rains.

It was to understand the impacts of the almost certain changes in temperature and precipitation following expected changes in the monsoon cycle, the Ministry of Environment and Forests commissioned the initail study as a part of its National Communications (NATCOM) project.

“ The initial analysis, using a distributed hydrological model for simulation over 12 river basins of the country revealed that under the Green House Gas scenario, severity of droughts or intensity of floods in various parts of the country may get deteriorated. Now a more detailed study is required on the impact of climate change on existing reservoirs to understand the level of intervention required,” he said, adding that the final report is likely to be submitted within the next three years.

Dr Gosain says change in precipitation is likely to have a lesser impact on Himalayan river systems compared to temperature changes. Himalayan rivers are dependent on glaciers, receding due to rise in temperatures.

“Due to changes in precipitation, rivers systems like Mahi, Pennar, Sabarmati and Tapi will face acute water shortage while river basins like Cauvery, Ganga, Narmada and Krishna are expected to experience seasonal or regular water-stressed conditions. On the other hand, river systems like Godavari, Brahmani and Mahanadi are predicted to face severe flood conditions.”

But for Himalayan rivers the problem will be receding glaciers due to an increase in temperature. Because once glaciers are gone the perenniality of the rivers will also be gone, he said, adding that Himalayan rivers were already beginning to face the changes which will only keep increasing.