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Cure for Laloo SAARC session IT axis |
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West Bengal grows faster
A trip without SARS
India-Pakistan relations A non-professional talk show China’s economy keeps surging
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Cure for Laloo RAILWAY Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav has a knack of making headlines, often for doing the wrong things. He has a grievance, perhaps justified, that he was attacked in Vadodara recently by Narendra Modi’s men after the Sabarmati Express accident. But Monday’s charges framed against him and 69 others in the fodder scam case by the Ranchi special CBI court have placed him in a difficult situation. Nothing would help him deflect public attention from the episode because his involvement in and pecuniary benefit from the Rs 950-crore fodder scam has been a subject of CBI investigation since 1996. Mr Yadav faces six cases involving the conspiracy angle, cheating, forgery and falsification of accounts under various sections of the Indian Penal Code and the Prevention of Corruption Act (1988). He has served relatively long spells of detention in the jail apart from being arrested on several other occasions. Union Law Minister H.R. Bhardwaj has said that the Railway Minister had not been convicted and hence there was no justification for his dismissal from the Union Cabinet. However, propriety demands that Mr Yadav should himself resign forthwith to uphold the dignity of the high office he holds. The question of tainted ministers in the UPA government has been a serious issue and discussed in and outside Parliament several times. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may find it hard to tackle the situation because of the compulsions of a coalition government. Mr Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal has eight ministers at the Centre and as many as 23 members in the Lok Sabha. The Congress stand that Mr Yadav need not resign on the issue should be viewed against the reported threat by the RJD ministers at the Centre to quit office and support the government from outside if he was dropped or asked to resign. This clearly is political blackmail in a coalition era. The nation must find a remedy for this when Mr Laloo Prasad Yadav has chosen to stick to his job, although his continuance as a Minister at the Centre has become untenable. |
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SAARC session SOON after India indicating its willingness to resume arms aid to Nepal has come New Delhi’s readiness to attend the annual session of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). This is being interpreted as a U-turn in India’s policy, which does not seem to be true. The change in India’s stance vis-à-vis Nepal reflects its concern for preventing the growth of the Maoist menace there. King Gyanendra is yet to restore democracy, but he has been made to realise that he has committed a blunder by snapping the democratic process in Nepal. He must have got this message immediately after India forced the postponement of the SAARC meeting and suspended supplying arms. India, however, could not come in the way of the SAARC meeting for a long time. New Delhi had to allow the meeting to be held in Dhaka as India is committed to promoting regionalism, one of the primary objectives of SAARC. The postponement of the SAARC session, which will now be held soon, also appears to have had the intended impact on Bangladesh. It was getting a bad name as the international community thought that Dhaka was not able to host the SAARC session because of the chaotic conditions there. India too wanted to tell Bangladesh that New Delhi could no longer tolerate Dhaka allowing anti-India forces to operate from there freely. Bangladesh Foreign Minister Morshed Khan’s request to his Indian counterpart Natwar Singh to agree to attend the SAARC meeting reportedly indicates that Dhaka has got the message New Delhi wanted to convey. Perhaps! Every SAARC member must learn to conduct itself as a responsible member of the regional community. Any country that allows destabilizing forces to use its territory must be exposed. But nothing should be done to prevent the evolution of SAARC into “an organization relevant to the aspirations of the peoples of South Asia”, as Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran said recently. India wants its neighbours to see this country as an area of opportunity. If they harbour anti-India forces they will be indirectly harming their own interests. |
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IT axis EVERY computer has some Indian flavour in its software and often its hardware comes from China. The two Asian giants have been on separate IT paths and have both developed unique capabilities. Now that they are coming closer, it is only fitting that they find synergy in the world of computers. It came as no surprise that, during his visit to India, the Chinese Premier, Mr Wen Jiabao, focussed on IT and hi-tech areas for pushing economic cooperation to a higher level. It could be that business needs are influencing the political climate. Trade between the two countries has increased 14-fold over the past decade, reaching almost $ 14 billion by the end of last year. At the end of Mr Wen's visit, two of China's largest telecom firms, ZTE and Huawei Technologies, announced that they had got orders worth $208 m and $70 m, respectively, to supply equipment to Indian firms. China makes computer parts, including hard drive and RAM, and even the quintessentially American iPod music player. Other Asian countries like Tiawan and South Korea are also major players in hardware, and it is unfortunate that India has not been able to attract the right kind of FDI for hardware. However, on the software front, which is more paying, India is ahead of China by a huge margin. It must invest in attracting hardware companies, including from China, to set up plants here. Many Indian companies, including Infosys, TCS, Satyam and Wipro, already have a presence in China and many more are likely to make a base there. Though the vision of China, India and other Asian countries making Asia the dominant force in information technology business is tempting, legal issues, language, cultural barriers and historic baggage stand in the way. However, the two nations have expressed their determination to work together, and if they do so, they will be in a position to dominate the future of IT in the world. |
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Strength is the product of struggle — Anonymous
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West Bengal grows faster MOST of us are conditioned to viewing economic development in terms of industrialisation. While industrialisation is essential for economic transformation, it is not as if economic growth is not possible without industrialisation. The sectoral structure of India’s GDP and the slow transformation of this makes a good case study. The share of industry in India’s GDP has changed slightly even when the economy was growing at almost twice the “Hindu rate of growth”, as was the case during the last two decades. At a regional level, we can look this taking place in West Bengal. Despite its obviously slackening pace of industrialisation, in the post-reforms period West Bengal has registered the fastest rate of economic growth in India, both in terms of GDP and per capita income. Now juxtapose this fact, evidenced by official statistics put out by the Government of India — not the West Bengal government or the CPM propaganda department — against the huge investments in industry taking place in states like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. And we are left with a startling picture of a state whose one-time industrial primacy is now a fading memory. But since we cannot grasp what we cannot see, after all new factories and five-star hotels are the only visible proof of development most of us accept, people like Sir V.S. Naipaul castigate the CPM-led government for what it has done to West Bengal. This is only their perception and not our reality. Speaking at the India Today Conclave on February 25 on “India Tomorrow: Perception and Reality.” Naipaul said: “Bengal was the economic and intellectual leader of India till it discovered Marxism. It discovered Marxism and, like poor Russia in 1917, committed suicide. The economic lead of Bengal has vanished and so has the cultural lead.” While cultural development cannot be quantified, economic growth can be, and the evidence before us suggests that Sir Vidia’s opinion takes more than just poetic licence with the facts. According to data available from the Central Statistical Office during the years since 1993-94, West Bengal has the highest growth rate of 8.55 per cent with second-placed Karnataka’s 7.29 per cent well behind it. It would also seem that the Marxist rate of growth has been better than the Hindu rate of growth sice India only grew at 6.87 per cent during this period? Even in terms of growth of per capita income, West Bengal has fared much better than all other states during the post-reforms era. It achieved an average growth of 5.5 per cent after 1993-94 as opposed to the nationwide growth of 4.3 per cent. This is even more revealing when you consider that during this period West Bengal was also racking up an average annual population growth of 1.78 per cent (1991-2001), which is much higher than the rate of the high achievers like Tamil Nadu (1.11 per cent). If one were to consider population growth since 1981, West Bengal grew at 2.34 per cent, which is uncomfortably close to the national average of 2.51 per cent. Undoubtedly, the seemingly uncontrollable and unabated migration from Bangladesh has contributed to this relatively high growth of population. Whatever are the reasons for this, we can only surmise that the rise in per capita incomes would have been even higher if there was no influx from the neighbouring countries like Nepal and Bangladesh, and even neighbouring states like Bihar and Orrisa. Even more interesting is the fact that per capita incomes of West Bengal and Maharashtra, after excluding the two great metros of Mumbai and Kolkata, are fairly close. West Bengal’s per capita income, excluding Kolkata, is Rs. 12,671 while Maharashtra’s without Mumbai, is Rs 13,897. Thus, even if we accept for a moment that Naipaul is correct in assuming that West Bengal has a Marxist system, its performance is not too bad compared to what must be the most laissez-faire of our states-Maharashtra. We can be certain that if the per capita incomes of the other two big cities of Maharashtra-Pune and Nagpur — are excluded, its per capita income will be below that of West Bengal. Unfortunately Naipaul’s moving mouth having spoken will move on while the perception painted by him will remain. This performance is quite extraordinary when you factor in the dominant reality of rural West Bengal in that it ranks third from the bottom in terms of irrigated acreage with only 28.1 per cent of its agricultural land irrigated. This is when it is the third most densely agricultural state in India with almost 77 per cent of its land area under the plough. If, like Punjab or Haryana with 89.72 per cent and 65 per cent respectively, of agricultural acreage irrigated, West Bengal too were to benefit from centrally financed irrigation and centrally subsidised procurement, it would be fair to assume that its economic performance would have been even of a higher order. Then even without a communist system, the communist regime in West Bengal would have perhaps had a sustained growth rate closer to that of China ? Between 1984 and 2001, industrial capital investment in West Bengal only increased four-fold when it grew by more than seven times in the rest of India. This also coincided with the decline in the value addition of the West Bengal industry from 8.8 per cent in 1984-85 to 4 per cent in 2000-2001. During the same period the number of industries in the state was almost static — 5369 to 6091 — when the number grew from 97,000 to almost 131,000 for India. Even worse was that during this period the numbers employed in the organised industrial sector in West Bengal declined by almost half, from 917,000 to about 456,000. The effect of Partition on commerce and industry in eastern India is well known. This was followed by the developments in technology and market preferences that made many traditional products like jute obsolete. An even bigger reason for the blight that settled over the one-time industrial heartland of India was the economic policies inspired by vague notions of socialism. The pernicious of these was the freight equalisation policy of the Government of India with regard to steel and coal that lasted over three decades from 1956 to 1992. This neutralised the benefit of proximity and eastern India’s main competitive advantage. This gave the engineering industry little incentive to stay around Kolkata and production inevitably shifted to areas closer to the markets. Thus, if we have to accept that Marxist notions on economic equalisation dearly cost West Bengal, it was not the doing of the Communists
there. The writer is Chairman, Centre for Policy Alternatives, New Delhi. |
A trip without SARS
ON February 20, 2003, when the International Atomic Energy Agency invited four of us to attend a regional seminar at Beijing, WHO had not issued its alert on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). Shortly, alerts on SARS from WHO and the US-Centre for Disease Control and Prevention followed. We doubted whether the seminar would take place at all. A Pakistani delegate sent the US-CDC alert to fellow delegates. I sent extracts on SARS from the New England Journal of Medicine to all. Another Pakistani delegate queried whether we had to wear masks while landing at Beijing. Interestingly, three specialists from two “nuclear” nations feverishly exchanged notes on the vicious, lowly bug that flits past national boundaries without a passport or visa. Of the four invitees from India, two dropped out. Vithal Nadkarni from the Times of India and I decided to attend. With an executive upgrade, Air India treated us well; we remained reassured, as more passengers joined us from Chennai. During the three hours at Singapore, Vithal went jogging; I sat
discretely away from people passing by an escalator. Very few wore masks. None had gloves. Those who had were clearing the dustbins! A naughty child pulled off his mask when his mother looked away. During the flight to Beijing by Singapore Airlines, more masks were out. They hid the pleasing smiles of airhostesses. I looked at every passenger for telltale symptoms such as wheezing, sneezing or cough. I saw that no one emitted a cloud of nano-assassins! The deeds of the dirty bug dominated all newspapers. Journalists relegated the stories from the “embedded men” in Iraq to the inner pages. The Prime Minister of Singapore greeted the press with folded hands (“namaste”, Indian style!) after a meeting. Shaking hands entailed known risks! At Beijing, More masks were out. I covered my fingers with tissue paper every time I pressed the lift button. I washed my hands so often with liquid soap that my fingers ached. While Vithal went to see the Great Wall, I relished the sumptuous lunch our Chinese hosts spread in Tenggelitala, which served traditional Mongolian cuisine. I savoured spotless fruit, drank fresh juices and ate choicest vegetables. Dance and songs by Tenggelitala Art Ensemble enchanted us. SARS virus did not dampen the zeal! We watched China Central Television-9 every day. There was some disquieting news. More wore masks and gloves. A day before we left Beijing, we went to a nearby market to buy some mementoes. Luckily, SARS shunned Vithal and me. Many Chinese were not so lucky. Vithal claimed that our immunity levels increased due to the mugs and mugs of green tea we drank. May be, the yoga postures of Vithal at dawn were too scary for the
bug! |
India-Pakistan relations
On the eve of Independence, there was a sizeable inter-regional trade between the two regions. India’s share in Pakistan’s total imports and exports was 50.6 per cent and 23.6 per cent, respectively, during 1948-49. Over the period of time it declined drastically. Pakistan’s share in India’s imports and exports during 1951-52 was 1.06 per cent and 2.21 per cent, respectively. A short bout of Indo-Pak war in 1965 led to a trade embargo which lasted about nine years. It is unparallel in world history. Though trade was again resumed between the two countries in January, 1975, yet, the full potential of their mutual trade has never been realised, mainly because of political irrationalities/compulsions. The bilateral trade between the two countries during 2002-03 was worth US $ 262 million whereas their global exports were more than $ 52,853 million. Their mutual trade potential is, however, being estimated around $ 7,000 million. Unofficial trade via third countries worth $ 1,000 million and contraband trade between $ 1,000-2,000 million is taking place between India and Pakistan. If the unofficial trade is officially channeled both countries can earn a lot in terms of Customs duty etc. Ever-weakening trade ties and non-exploitation of trade potential between India and Pakistan have caused immeasurable financial loss to them. Both countries would have gained Rs 15,000-20,000 crore during the last five decades had they fully exploited their mutual trade potential. The gains were mainly in terms of lower prices and much lower transport and transhipment costs. It is strange that trade between the two neighbouring countries has been mostly through Bombay-Karachi routes whereas before Partition most of the trade used to be through the Wagah-Attari land route. The distance between Amritsar and Lahore is just about 50 km. Trade can also take place through the Hussainiwala (Ferozepore) border. It is important to note that the transportation of goods from certain locations from India via the Bombay-Karachi route takes much longer time than via the land routes of Wagah and Hussainiwala. It is an irrationality of the highest order that goods are first transported to Bombay, then to Karachi and then to Lahore and other surrounding regions and vice-versa. It involves huge transport and transhipment costs. More so, opening up the Wagah-Attari and Hussainiwala routes for trade, inter alia, can give a boost to border trade also. In that event, both Punjabs and the neighbouring states would gain a lot in terms of economic growth and a massive generation of employment. Had there been strong trade ties between the two neighbouring countries, they would have also gained a lot from their trade with West and Central Asian countries and from intra-SAARC trade. Pakistan, too, would have gained a lot from the transit fee on Indian trade to third countries through Pakistan territory and vice-versa. Pakistan can also trade through land routes, through Indian territory, to Bangladesh. The not-so-good relations, political irrationality, fundamentalist approach to solve problems and a fear psychosis on both sides resulted in a huge loss of men and material during all these years. During the decade of the 1980s, Pakistan has been spending more than 6.5 per cent of its GDP on defence and it was a little more than 5 per cent during 1990s. The defence expenditure in India was a little more than 3 per cent during the 1980s and more than 2 per cent during the 1990s of its GNP. As a percentage of the central government expenditure, defence expenditure was between 32 per cent and 38.67 per cent in Pakistan and between 14.68 per cent and 18.39 per cent in India during 1986-1997. The poor economies like them can ill-afford such a “luxury”. Both should understand that the real might and security of a country lies in its economic strength and stability and not merely in its military strength. It is worth mentioning that both India and Pakistan have already fought three and a half low-intensity wars with each other, besides numerous skirmishes. They could not solve any long-standing problem. Rather, the complexities of problems have gone from bad to worse. According to certain estimates, the human costs of the wars between India and Pakistan was a death toll of 22,600 persons and another 50,000 were maimed or wounded on both sides. Instead of wasting their energy and resources on nurturing and perpetuating conflict, they should rather focus on peace, stability, growth and development. This is the only solution for their pressing problems of poverty, unemployment, inequality, illiteracy and poor health status. Let us hope that Dr Manmohan Singh and Gen Pervez Musharraf would take the ongoing task of normalisation of mutual relations to the logical end. Let us now translate “traditional enmity” into “traditional friendship and cooperation” and jointly usher in an era of peace, prosperity and development. Peace is a pre-requisite to prosperity and development.
**** The writer is a Professor in the Department of Economics, Punjabi University, Patiala. |
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A non-professional talk show ABHISHEK and Preity, just great friends, nothing happened and nothing will,” says Karan Johar to the camera as he ends another episode of his successful talk-show, Koffee With Karan on Star World. His guest list is a who’s who of Bollywood star and star-wives. Shahrukh and Gauri Khan, Hritik and Susanna Roshan, Aishwarya Rai, Sanjay Dutt and others grace the slick couches of the lavender-lit set. They subject themselves to a series of rapid-fire questions. In this episode Preity and Abhishek jump onto Johar’s lap, screaming and giggling. The questions range from “what are your pick-up lines” to “who is the co-star you least like”. There is an intimacy between the director and the stars he interviews. He often refers to them as “friends” and they joke about the supposedly stodgier show hosted by “Simi Aunty” on a competing network. What is missing from “Koffee With Karan” is a discussion about the films Johar and his guests make. Perhaps Johar gets his cue from the film magazine catering to the English-speaking fan culture in India. The headlines of these magazines rarely veer too far from the inevitability of key-hole journalism. “Was too much made of the Kareena-Shahid episode?” asks one publication. Another headline screams, “Hritik caught red hot in his bedroom!” Except for a rare glimpse of Gulzar’s illustrious writing career or a rarer interview with Manna Dey on the evolution of playback singing, the magazines avoid any in-depth analysis of the craft of film-making. The magazines, along with TV channels such as Zoom, cater to the middle-class Indians’ growing curiosity about the lifestyles of the rich and famous best personified by Bollywood’s start system. Dressed to the hilt, the stars on “Koffee” parade their designer outfits, diamonds, and discuss their personal travels to exotic locations. Little is ever said by the host and guests about their professional lives. Compare Koffee with Karan with Star World’s afternoon talk-show, Oprah. Based in Chicago, the host, Oprah Winfrey, adopts a similar style, format and in addition includes the presence of a live audience. Oprah often invites directors and stars especially prior to the release of a film. Like Johar, Oprah herself actively acts in and produces feature films. Unlike Johar, Oprah meticulously avoids references to personal lives. Except on rare occasions, her questions strictly stay within the realm of films. Oprah herself had been the fodder of tabloid press as she struggled with her weight, image make-overs and legal trials. Johar, on the other hand, doesn’t seem overly concerned about matters of his own privacy or those of his guests. He is even less concerned with his guests’ talents and acting careers. Instead, he disarmingly questions Kajol if her husband is jealous of her and Shahrukh Khan’s on-screen chemistry. Shouldn’t the question be how Kajol and Shahrukh Khan were able to create such chemistry? Watching the show with a family in Bangalore, one of the members, a young professional eagerly explains to me her appeal for “Koffee With Karan”. “He brings out something different from the guests. He asks questions no one else will ask.” The urban, upwardly mobile, English-speaking audience this show attracts wants to know more about the star personalities than their performance in front of the camera. Today’s question for the audience, posed with almost comic seriousness by the host, is “What kind of a girl should Abhishek marry?” The show perpetuates a film industry which has become almost entirely driven by actor’s personalities and personal lives. Film-makers such as Johar benefit directly from a system which rewards not good film-making and acting, but rather the casting and making of personalities. Johar is the giddy avatar of this system, which fits so neatly into the intense culture of materialism gripping urban India’s middle and upper classes. While this has enriched Johar, it leaves Indian filmgoers impoverished. Lost in the deluge of star-giggling are the real and everyday aspect of the film as a profession. Serious performers like Amitabh Bachchan and Rani Mukherjee appear uncomfortable but are compelled to smile and bear. Johar’s own reputation as a slick but escapist film-maker remains intact. Like his films, Koffee with Karan avoids meaningful content. |
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China’s economy keeps surging DEFYING forecasts that its growth would slow this year, China’s economy expanded at a rapid pace of 9.5 percent in the first quarter, boosted by substantial gains in net exports and consumer spending, Chinese officials reported. The stronger-than-expected annualized growth rate matches China’s pace of expansion in the fourth quarter and all last year. Some analysts regarded it as a heartening indication that China — one of two key drivers of global growth along with the United States — will continue to boost activity around the world. China is the world’s seventh-largest economy, and its booming growth has helped drive up demand and prices for oil and other commodities. By contrast, the U.S. economy is expected to grow about 3.6 percent this year, down from 4.4 percent last year. However, Beijing has been trying to slow China’s growth to avoid bubble-type conditions, such as inflated real estate prices and factory overexpansion, that could lead to a crash landing. The latest rapid growth clip could prompt the government to further tighten controls on investment and credit. The latest report also may be of little comfort to political leaders in Washington and the European Union. Amid signs of economic weakening in the United States and continued sluggishness in much of Europe, American and EU officials recently have stepped up pressure on Beijing to revalue its currency. Those officials say the Chinese yuan, which is pegged to the dollar, is artificially undervalued, making Chinese exports cheaper in global markets. That had led to massive trade deficits with China. While Western trade officials have pressed the currency issue for more than two years, to no avail, in recent days President Bush has directly urged Beijing to take action. Lawmakers in Washington have threatened to slap high tariffs on Chinese imports if the Asian nation does not adjust its currency. Many analysts, however, doubt that a yuan revaluation of even 10 percent will provide much benefit to the United States. Of more immediate concern to Beijing, though, may be China’s deteriorating relations with Japan over long-simmering historical issues as well as more recent conflicts over energy resources. Anti-Japanese protests in major Chinese cities in the last month have spooked foreign business executives in China and investors abroad. If demonstrations continue and the situation worsens, economists say, Japanese and other companies could pull back from China. For now, there’s no indication of a withdrawal. Just this week, car companies at Shanghai’s Auto Show announced plans to expand production facilities in China. And with Beijing opening up the domestic market more to foreign companies, many manufacturers and service companies are beefing up investments in China. The sustained foreign investment was one factor behind the strong first-quarter numbers. Although China’s state-owned banks have reduced their lending to government businesses, under orders from Beijing, there’s still plenty of speculative money and underground banks supporting land development and new plants and equipment. — LA Times-Washington Post |
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From the pages of
THE fact that public servants under local governments are often dismissed without opportunity being given them for a hearing, having come to the notice of the Government of India, they have written to the several local administrations to avoid such a procedure and to adhere strictly to the orders of the Supreme Government on the subject. This is a fresh instance of the goodness of Lord Ripon’s heart and head. The poor employees in the provinces do often suffer a good deal from the injustice done to them by their official superiors, whose one-sided reports prove enough to seal their fate. There was no one to look to the misery or listen to the cries of these downtrodden men who frequently fell victims to the caprices or whims of those above them, and we are very glad that the Government of India took up the matter for consideration. |
He who wishes to secure the good of others has already secured his own. — Confucius A rich man shall hardly enter the kingdom of heaven. It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God. — Jesus Christ The Devas are ever pure and in harmony with each other. — The Vedas The name of God is the only remedy for the suffering humanity. — Guru Nanak Be sincere in your practice, words and deed. You will feel blessed! — Sarada Devi  |
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ECONOMIC inter-dependence and cooperation between India and Pakistan is a natural phenomenon as prior to Partition, they were one country, rather a subcontinent. The people of both countries have a common historical past and socio-cultural and political affinity. They jointly participated in their struggle for Independence.