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Thursday,
April 10, 2003, Chandigarh, India  
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Training guns on media VAT’s the problem? Papering over truths |
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Calculations about post-Saddam Iraq
MiGs will fly, so will pigs!
Likely impact of war on Indian economy
Improving on nature
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Training guns on media AS they say, truth is the first casualty in a war. But the US-British forces in Iraq, perhaps, want the world to remember that telling the truth in a situation of war is a serious crime and the offender deserves nothing less than capital punishment. This upsetting message has been conveyed disguisedly through the attack on Palestine Hotel in Baghdad and the Al-Jazeera TV channel office on the banks of the Tigris on Tuesday. In all, more than 10 journalists have lost their lives in the wake of the super power-led military action against the Saddam Hussein regime, four of them on that black Tuesday. A close examination of the horrifying incident at Palestine Hotel makes one believe that the lives of the three media persons killed there could have been saved had the US forces been clearly told that journalists doing their professional duty should not be targeted under any circumstances. But, it seems, what they have been instructed is something other than this. How else does one describe the firing on the hotel building, known for being used by most foreign journalists covering the war? The illogical explanation that the allied forces opened fire in response to sniper attacks on them has been exposed as having no grain of truth by some surviving media persons. Their version is that they did not hear any sniper shooting from the hotel. What these unembedded reporters say should obviously be the correct position. The US leadership has been demonstrating its aversion for impartial reporting ever since it went in for the military option to deal with the Iraq crisis. That is why it has been looking for any pretext to punish the uncooperating Arabic TV channels like Al-Jazeera, Abu Dhabi Television and Al-Arabia. The so-called liberators can offer no other plausible explanation for destroying with missiles the Al-Jazeera office in Baghdad. Yes, its acceptance by the world as the most credible TV network has been a source of great embarrassment for the US-British leadership and, therefore, it must suffer. However, complete disregard for the safety of unembedded journalists is only adding to the American unpopularity, particularly in the West Asian region. People rarely believe what Western TV channels and newspapers report unless they hear it from the war reporters of Al-Jazeera, the CNN of the Arab world. Incidentally, this channel has been targeted by the Saddam Hussein regime too. It is time the Reporters without Borders, the media watchdog group that has condemned the killing of an unusually large number of journalists in the current US-British military drive, launched a campaign for declaring physical elimination or intimidation of newspersons in a situation like that in Iraq as a war crime.
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| VAT’s the problem? HAPPILY, the Empowered Committee headed by Dr Asim Dasgupta of West Bengal has not succumbed to the pressure by the traders agitating against the value added tax (VAT). The committee is hopeful that at least 15 states will implement the VAT from June 1. Haryana is the only state in the country to follow the original VAT deadline of April 1 and praise, therefore, is deservedly showered on the state bureaucracy and political leadership. Sooner or later, every state has to adopt the new tax regime, but how fast and effectively it is done will distinguish the progressive states from the laggards. In states like Delhi and Rajasthan, which go to the polls later in the year, the VAT introduction has been deliberately delayed by electoral compulsions and they are unlikely to follow even the new deadline. However, the political leadership in Madhya Pradesh has not allowed itself to be swayed by such short-sighted considerations and announced to go ahead with the VAT from June. Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, like Madhya Pradesh, have Congress governments, but they have chosen to keep the company of the laggards. By giving in to traders’ pressure tactics, the Punjab Government has acted contrary to the state’s popular image of being progressive. Himachal has yet to prove that it is serious about reforms. The VAT is a piece of progressive legislation, which aims to unify the different sales tax rates in the states, simplify the tax system, do away with the plethora of taxes that hamper growth and result in harassment of traders. Multiple tax rates are not only confusing and irritating, but also lead to litigation, apart from raising costs. The traders’ opposition to the VAT is based mainly on two apprehensions: one, increased harassment at the hands of tax officials. Two, product prices would escalate. The fact is only tax evaders need to worry about possible witch-hunt by taxmen. Small traders are already exempted from the purview of the new legislation. According to reports, almost 90 per cent of traders in Punjab will have an opportunity of self-assessment. As in the case of sales tax, there is no provision for the prosecution of a taxpayer unless some fraud or attempt at tax evasion is detected. The second apprehension is also misplaced. The VAT will apply to some 425 commodities, of which 287 items, comprising mostly agricultural and industrial inputs, will attract the same tax rate of 4 per cent as before. The prices of 328 items, according to Dr Asim
Dasgupta, will not increase at all. On the remaining products, the 12.5 per cent revenue neutral rate will not have any real impact on the prices. The need of the hour is to spread awareness about the new tax regime, which has been adopted in many European countries. A uniform tax structure will present India as a single market to the manufacturer within as well as outside the country. It will make the Indian industry more competitive in the emerging economic scenario. |
Papering over truths THE White Paper on Railway Safety does not inspire much confidence among the people. True to Railway Minister Nitish Kumar’s style of functioning in the past few months, this document speaks more about the drawbacks and failures of others, rather than those of his own staff and officers. The reference to ‘sabotage’ as the principal reason for most of the accidents and derailments is aimed at fixing accountability on state governments and simultaneously giving a clean chit to the mandarins in Rail Bhavan and those down the line. Mr Kumar is entitled to express his views in Parliament about the functioning of his ministry. However, when it is a question of White Paper, one did not expect statistics from 1960 onwards to justify his claim of a low accident rate. The people would have expected an honest document listing the resource crunch, options available and alternative methods to streamline the working of the railways. For instance, the reasons for the increasing number of accidents are many: old bridges, faulty track, poor rolling stock and, above all, human error. It is said that even high-speed trains like the Rajdhani Express have a low tolerance level. Against this background, it is doubtful whether the authorities concerned would be able to infuse confidence into the passengers about rail safety. They also missed the opportunity of addressing the problem of competition from the road sector, which is not a healthy trend. The White Paper makes out a case for shifting the Commissioner of Railway Safety (CRS) from the Union Ministry of Civil Aviation to the Railway Ministry. However, if this suggestion is accepted in toto, this functionary will lose whatever little credibility he enjoys at present. Though the CRS is from the Civil Aviation Ministry, he can hardly be described as independent. His report is final but then it is vetted by the Railway Board. As soon as an inquiry into an accident by the CRS is over and provisional findings recorded, a press note is issued fixing responsibility for the accident. However, the CRS report offers no explanation for the cause of the accident. Over the years, the bone of contention has been the so-called sanctity of the report, which is classified as top secret. Neither the media nor the public has access to it. A welcome feature in the White Paper is that the Railway Ministry has hinted at making the investigation mechanism more transparent. As a first step, it has proposed to make the CRS report public so that the people would be able to know the official view on the causes of the accident. While this is fine, they would be happier if the Railways are able to tone up the administration to ensure that all safety procedures are followed. |
Calculations about post-Saddam Iraq AS the American-British onslaught on Iraq enters its fourth week, one can arrive at some initial conclusions about the conflict unleashed by the US President on the regime of President Saddam Hussein. Firstly, there is no parallel in the history of modern warfare where a numerically small force comprising around two divisions has moved with such speed, across inhospitable desert terrain, while leaving its supply lines exposed, in the face of a professional army defending its own homeland. America’s main strike force, its Fourth Infantry Division, is yet to make a significant entry into the conflict. At the same time, large sections of the Iraqi armed forces deserve high praise for the tough resistance offered to a force that totally dominates the skies and has an overwhelming superiority in firepower. The conflict has led to horrifying civilian casualties. It has resulted in the erosion of the credibility of the American media, particularly channels like the CNN. Efforts to demonise the Saddam Hussein regime have not succeeded. The Americans have encountered a sullen population that feels that it is faced with a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. The British and the Americans have made little, if any, progress in winning the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people. The United States is going to find that winning the war was far easier than winning the peace. It seems determined to ignore symbolisms that are essential to correct the image that this war is being fought primarily in order to gain control of the oil and gas resources of Iraq. The Iraq Liberation Act passed by the US Congress on October 31, 1998, stated: “It should be the policy of the United States to support efforts to remove the regime of President Saddam Hussein from Iraq and promote the emergence of a democratic government to replace that regime”. The Act also authorised the President to provide military, humanitarian and broadcasting assistance to secure the ouster of the Saddam Hussein government and allocated $ 97 million for the first year of this effort. The Clinton Administration designated seven Iraq opposition groups for bringing about “regime change” in Iraq. These included the Pentagon’s current favourite, the Iraqi National Congress, the Iraqi National Accord, the Movement for Constitutional Monarchy, three Kurdish groups and the Shia-dominated and Iranian-supported Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, led by the Tehran-based Ayatollah Baqir al-Hakim. While two of the Kurdish groups designated by Washington enjoy popular support in the Kurdish areas, other groups like the Iraqi National Congress lack both credibility and support. The leader of the Iraqi National Congress, Mr Ahmed Chalabi, has been in exile for 45 years and is widely perceived as being an American stooge. His financial integrity is regarded as being dubious as he faces charges of bank fraud in Jordan. The popular support of the Iranian-backed Supreme Council is, as yet, untested. In any case, the Americans are not going to allow circumstances to be created wherein a pro-Iranian religious party plays a dominant role in Iraq. There are even now serious differences between the US and Iran on the role being played by the Al-Badr Brigade, which is the armed wing of the Supreme Council. Even today the only organisation that enjoys a grassroots presence in Iraq is Saddam Hussein’s Arab Baath Socialist Party. And, lest one forgets, it should be recalled that the coups staged by the Baath Party in 1963 and 1968 enjoyed CIA backing. The United States has decided that as the victor it should call the shots in post-war Iraq. The country is to be governed by Lieut-Gen Jay Garner, who has for years been a representative of the American arms industry specialising in missile and space defence systems, including missile sales to Israel. He is to be assisted by a number of serving and retired American diplomats, military officials and security experts, including, perhaps, former CIA Director James Woolsey. While Iraqis at large may accept such an arrangement as being inevitable during a short transition period, their resentment may quickly turn into widespread violence if the impression grows that the main American aim is to secure a long-term toehold in the country and to profit from its oil resources. Efforts to promote people like Mr Chalabi in an interim set-up would only strengthen this impression. It is evident that the United States would like to assume a significant, and indeed dominant, role in Iraq’s oil industry. While an investment of $ 5 billion would be required to update Iraq’s dilapidated oil infrastructure, a further investment of around $ 40 billion would be necessary to raise its production from the present levels of 2 million barrels per day to 6 million barrels per day. Strategists like Mr Woolsey have long cautioned against allowing Saudi Arabia to play the dominant role that it plays today in world oil markets. Thus expanding Iraq’s production capacity makes sound strategic sense. There are, however, indications that the Bush administration has already reached an agreement with Iraqi opposition leaders in London that Iraq will privatise its oil industry and “establish a conducive business environment to attract investment in its oil and gas resources”. The United States will soon find that it will lose whatever little goodwill it has in Iraq if a perception grows that its main interest has been to put together a government in that country that is guided and dominated by American oil interests. The Americans will soon have to resort to imaginative diplomacy to ensure that the legitimate and often competing interests of Iraq’s neighbours like Iran and Turkey are accommodated. While the current emphasis on giving a marginal role to the United Nations may seem attractive, the US will have to recognise that it cannot indefinitely function in Iraq without a measure of international legitimacy. There has naturally been a rising tide of public opinion in India against the conflict in Iraq. It is important for the Vajpayee government to take steps to see that Indian public opinion is persuaded that moralistic posturing is no substitute for a measured policy based on a realistic appraisal of our national interests. Loudly moralistic German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer now proclaims that he “hopes that the (Saddam Hussein) regime will collapse as soon as possible” and President Putin avers that he has no desire to see the US lose in the Iraq conflict!! We should not forget that in prosecuting its war against Iraq the US has enjoyed either open or covert support from nine of Iraq’s neighbours. While all these neighbours are Muslim countries, eight of them are members of the much-touted nonaligned movement. As British forces approached Baghdad on March 28, 1917, after defeating the armies of the Ottoman Empire, the British Commander, Lieut-Gen Sir Stanley Maude, issued the following proclamation to the people of Baghdad: “Our armies do not come into your cities and lands as your conquerors, but as liberators”. Maude went on to assure the people of Iraq a “future of greatness”. Within six months Maude died of cholera and the British faced an Iraqi uprising that ultimately forced them to leave Iraq. There is much that Gen Tommy Franks and Gen Jay Garner can learn from the British experience. History, then, need not repeat itself. The writer is a former High Commissioner of India to Pakistan.
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MiGs will fly, so will pigs! THE netas were livid that MiGs were falling like the stock market and yet the defence authorities were not able to do much about it. The unanimous opinion at the hurriedly called meeting was that the Air Force people were just not equipped to unravel the truth and suggest correctives. It was necessary to hand over the onerous responsibility to an all-party fact-finding committee. The panel was set up post-haste. After the usual exchange of unpleasantries about the number of crashes during a particular party’s rule and the standard pandemonium, the committee got down to business. It was resolved that the committee members must have first-hand knowledge about the airworthiness of the plane. When they were told that a MiG could not carry passengers, the committee members and their family members left on a four-month, round-the-world trip on civilian planes to familiarise themselves with the intricacies of flying so that they could apply this knowledge to the evaluation of the aircraft a cloud. After studying the subject exhaustively at Lido, Las Vegas and Disneyland, it was decided that the study would not be complete till they got an extension of another six months and did a comparative analysis by flying planes of other countries. The extension was duly granted. After much deliberation the report was submitted to the authorities. Since it was related to a defence matter, it was classified as top secret. But as one of the investigative journalists happened to be known to the brother-in-law of a highly influential peon, parts of it duly came out in the open. The report said aircraft was absolutely fit. The problem lay with the sky over the country. There was something wrong with it. The hand of the Pakistani intelligence agency ISI could not be ruled out. This sensitive matter must be investigated in detail by a JPC. The committee also found fault with the present procedure of selection of pilots. It was suggested that a fixed number of pilots must be selected from each parliamentary constituency. It also expressed its dissatisfaction over the quality of spares that were coming from abroad. It was strongly recommended that orders should be placed with the local small-scale units. Roadside mechanics should be trained to handle the planes. This would increase employment opportunities. Till these recommendations were implemented, it was necessary that all civilians should be forced to live underground so that no precious life was lost if a flying coffin fell over their head. |
Likely impact of war on Indian economy THE World Bank on April 2 warned that a prolonged war in Iraq might adversely affect India’s GDP growth prospects in this fiscal. “India’s GDP growth depends on the outcome of the war. If war continues for a long time and oil prices continue to rise, it could affect the country,” Mr William Shaw of World Bank’s international finance team believes. Although the bank did not like to make any forecast linking the war right now, Mr Shaw said oil prices were extremely volatile due to the war in Iraq. Since India is a net importer of oil, the development can affect the country considerably. In his opinion, “War has added more bumps to an uneven global expansion.” This is mainly due to higher oil prices, falling consumer and business confidence, increased volatility in financial markets and higher fiscal deficits. The war might have an impact on the remittances flow as well. Otherwise, the World Bank has projected an average 5.3 per cent economic growth for India and other South Asian nations during 2003, which is marginally lower than 5.4 per cent calculated in December, 2002. As per the World Bank’s projected figures, South Asia is well ahead of all developing nations, slated to grow at 4 per cent against the global average of 1.8 per cent during 2003. The World Bank has, however, told India and its neighbours, “Investments will remain cautious, pending more solid progress in the reform process, while larger and persistent fiscal deficits have left little scope for substantial increases in government outlays.” Oil is a key factor in other ways too. One dominant thought is that the US and the UK have attacked Iraq because of its huge oil reserves. Given the current rates of economic growth and energy usage, especially in Asia, oil is the world’s most strategically valuable commodity. At 112 billion barrels, Iraq has the second largest reserve after Saudi Arabia. Control of the Iraqi oil will increase the US economic clout and political prowess. The extraction of oil and petroleum trade are also closely linked to the continued dominance of the dollar as the international reserve currency. Will Mr Bush’s prescription for regime change really make a difference for Iraq or take him ahead in his war against terror? It has been observed that the removal of a strong hand often gives rise to the same kind of forces, as it happened in Iran after the overthrow of the Shah regime. The attack on Iraq may give rise to the winds of fundamentalist terrorism that is already swirling around the globe. The US may bear the brunt of this terrorism, as it tasted on 9/11 with the devastation of the World Trade Centre by terrorists. For the rest of the world, including India, which has little or no clout to influence the unfolding events, an early end to the war will be the best thing to happen for a better future ahead. It is true that despite the sluggishness of the world economy, the demand for oil remains strong and inventories are low — 16 per cent below the level that existed a year ago and 12 per cent below the average during the past five years. OPEC does not have much spare capacity. The prospect of tight supplies together with the existing high demand and low stocks has already sent alarm signals to the transport sector, forcing the shipping companies and airlines to work out their contingency plans. Problems are more complicated for the airlines. It took the industry four years to start recovering from the impact of Gulf War I that lasted about 50 days. At the end the industry had lost $ 13 billion, eliminated 25,000 jobs and witnessed bankruptcies and mergers of several large and medium-sized airlines. Gulf War I happened when the airlines industry was strong economically. The situation today is, to put it mildly, bad. Post-9/11, the industry is saddled with an excess capacity and huge losses. Gulf War II, sharply weakening the demand for air travel and raising concerns of safety of services to West Asia, will, therefore, push the airlines further into red. Today the Indian economy is much more integrated into the global economy. Therefore, the fallout of the war is likely to be felt in more ways than initially realised. First, there is a huge petroleum import bill. The government may have allayed immediate fears by disclosing reserves enough to last a three-month supply disruption, but the medium-term picture is less rosy. India is the world’s eighth largest net petroleum importer at 1.2 million barrels per day. It is already ahead of China, and is probably set to overtake South Korea, France, Italy and Spain in the next few years to become the world’s fourth largest importer. In the immediate context, therefore, there is the danger of extreme volatility in oil price expectations, if not the prices themselves, leading to unexpected and ultimately unprofitable oil contracts. Second, there are false hopes in India about our industry getting contracts for the rebuilding of Iraq. These hopes should be taken with a pinch of salt, because the MNCs from the US and the UK have already been sounded for the rebuilding of Iraq after the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime. India can be given minor subcontracts regarding the reconstruction of roads, municipal water systems, ports and airports, government buildings, schools and irrigation projects, estimated to be of the order of $ 30 billion. Lastly, the economic implications for both the US and Europe are bleak. While the euro will benefit from multiple debt bubbles and a soaring US external deficit, it cannot prove to be a strong international reserve currency. The euro zone economies are already weak, and may become even weaker. The US economy will get worse as it spent $ 40 billion in Gulf War I and may lose over $ 75 billion in Gulf War II. It may recover if it gets cheap oil at the end of the war. India should, in any case, keep its fingers crossed. The writer is a retired Colonel. |
Improving on nature WITH
most of the planet’s hi-tech brainpower going into smart weaponry these days, it is easy to overlook the efforts of Germany’s less gung ho scientific community, who in recent weeks have not only invented the world’s first talking washing machine (better sign up for those language classes, girls) but, even more startlingly, have unveiled a special tool for making rhinoceroses pregnant. Excellent news, you might think, but wait a minute — don’t rhinoceroses have their own special tool? Well, if they do, it’s not working, otherwise there wouldn’t be such a worrying shortage (at least in Germany) of these much-loved creatures, famed throughout the safari-suit-wearing world for their poor memory, mischievous sense of fun and large horn positioned, slightly unhelpfully, right in their line of vision. Of course, it would be easy to blame the falling numbers of rhinos on people who go round shooting them. The answer is perhaps revealed in their rather ungallant mating rituals, which often results in the female being gored to death, perhaps for moaning about lack of courtesy and prior consultation with regard to sexual availability. Suffice to say, insensitivity to the needs of the opposite gender is by no means confined to the kingdom of the pachyderm. Hardly a day goes by without some new book proclaiming an end in sight to women having to endure men’s odious company, what with the advent over the past few years of virtual orgasms, better-designed milk cartons and dustbins with wheels on. Compelling scholarly theories argue, to the enthusiastic applause of wives up and down the country, that as a result of falling sperm counts and great leaps forward in egg-cloning technology, men may one day go the way of the woolly mammoth and the reusable condom. (Yeah, right - so who’d be fighting the Iraqis if there weren’t any men left? Ha! Answer that one if you’ve quite finished showing us how well you can reverse into a parking space without attracting the interest of The Guinness Book of Records.)
The Guardian |
Blessed are the poor — those who have not the spirit of riches, for theirs are the riches of the spirit. Blessed are they who make nothing their own, for they shall possess all things. Blessed are they who covet nothing, for they will receive all that others covet. —Paul Richard, “The Gospel of the Mountains”. |
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