M A I N   N E W S

Chances of durable coalition government in UP remote
State may go in for President’s rule and fresh Assembly elections
L.H. Naqvi

Lucknow, February 22
The scene of action has now shifted to the state capital of Uttar Pradesh. The mood is far from cheerful. In certain quarters there is already talk of early Assembly elections, possibly at the end of the year!

Even before voting in the third phase could be completed most leaders privately admitted that no party might get the people’s mandate to form a government on its own. And the political compulsions of most principal players do not offer much hope of a durable coalition being put in place — a coalition that would last the full term of five years.

Various options are being discussed. Believe it or not, the option that should have been placed at the bottom of the list is being given top priority by both pundits and politicians. In the event of elections throwing up a hung Assembly they feel the state should straightaway be placed under President’s rule for at least a year. That would give adequate time to the major political players to get ready for another round of electoral battle within a short period of time.

However, Raj Bhavan will have to go through the motion of inviting the leader of the largest party to form the next government. As per the established procedure the new Chief Minister’s first task would be to seek a vote of confidence from the newly constituted legislature.

The reason why imposition of President’s rule is being given top priority has something to do with the electoral compulsions of most principal parties.

There is a strong possibility of the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party together being able to put in place a working majority. However, Ms Mayawati will most certainly insist on being made Chief Minister as an essential condition for the formation of a BJP-BSP coalition. In other words she will demand support from and not extend support to the BJP for the purpose of forming a government.

The Central leadership may agree to even this arrangement, but what about the feelings of the state level leaders? Mr Rajnath Singh, who is seen as the only leader capable of reviving the BJP in the state, is not likely to accept this arrangement. He may do what Mr Kalyan Singh had done earlier, rather than allow Ms Mayawati to replace him as Chief Minister. Of course extending support to the BSP would strengthen the BJP at the Centre as it would get the backing of the Lok Sabha members from Ms Mayawati’s party. And that would reduce the BJP’s dependence on other minor parties for keeping the NDA government alive.

The possibility of the Samajwadi Party and the Congress coming together too are remote. The resistance in this case will not come from the Samajwadis, who had opposed Ms Sonia Gandhi becoming Prime Minister, but from the Congress rank and file. A section of the state level Congress leaders feel strongly that they should follow the example of Rajiv Gandhi and offer to sit in the Opposition.

No, they are not worried about desertions from the party as had happened earlier, when Mr Naresh Aggarwal led a breakaway faction into the BJP camp. Compromise with parties that have taken away the Congress’ traditional vote bank, and have opposed it in the Lok Sabha, and not desertion from its ranks would cause more harm to the future prospects of the Congress.

Most state-level Congress leaders see the building up of a Congress wave. By the time fresh elections are held the wave would have gained enough momentum for the Congress to sweep the polls and return to power on its own.

Of course, much would depend on the number of independent candidates and those representating what are called “rezgari parties” [small change parties] getting elected. They would obviously throw their weight behind the highest bidder. Since the BJP is in power Mr Rajnath Singh may just be able to outbid Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav to ensure a second term for his party.