EDITORIALS

Health system on test

WHILE the final report on the nature of the disease that has struck Himachal Pradesh’s Rohru area claiming four lives will take some time, initial tests of the samples collected give a positive verdict at the “culture level”. Global health agencies rely on molecule tests before declaring whether a disease is plague. Highly infectious and spread by bacteria, the disease has caused a scare in the region and concern at the highest level. With the Prime Minister too keeping himself abreast of the developments and the Union Health Minister saying in Delhi on Sunday that there appeared to be “more than 50 per cent possibility” that it was a plague epidemic, the health agencies, assisted by the civic bodies, are not taking any chances even in the national Capital, having learnt their lessons from Surat in 1994. In Himachal Pradesh too the state authorities have moved in quickly, called back doctors on leave, made medicines available in the affected area and finalised a plan to relaunch a surveillance programme in the Rohru belt of Shimla district which is said to be prone to such dreadful diseases. According to the Himachal Health Minister, a similar disease that had struck the Rohru area in 1982 was never declared plague, but health experts will study its history to understand the present disease. As a result of the combined efforts, the disease has been almost contained. The patients admitted to the PGI, Chandigarh, are responding to treatment. Overall, the situation appears manageable.

The mysterious disease has put to test the country’s health system at the Central, Union Territory and state levels. While in totality the responsiveness of the system and the team work displayed by the health staff are commendable, the killer disease has not revealed its epidemic proportions usually associated with plague.While the doctors will surely like to claim that they have managed it, nature too lent its helping hand as people did not flee the area in panic and remained indoors because of snowfall. But some chinks in the disease management system are all too glaring.There is no provision for immediate identification of a disease of this nature. Medicines being distributed are for a disease not yet diagnosed. Rural health has hardly ever been a national priority. The ruralites, used to a life without health infrastructure depending generally on traditional methods of treatment, owe their well-being to a hard life, pollution-free environment and traditional food habits. The cash-strapped hill state of Himachal can hardly be expected to spend enough on building a dependable health infrastructure. The Rohru Civil Hospital, for instance, has only nine doctors against the sanctioned strength of 18. The surveillance programme initiated in the area after the last incident in 1982, was abandoned for want of will and funds. The resort to a fire-fighting approach, as is evident in this case and in Surat before, is not good enough and has to be given up. The country has to build an efficient and dependable institutional network to face epidemics.

The killings in Rajouri

THE gunning down of eight persons, including five children, by militants in Rajouri district's Narla village in Jammu and Kashmir on Saturday night appears to be an act of desperation. Preliminary reports suggest that the killers were men of the Lashkar-e-Toiba, an organisation having its base on the other side of the border. After the ban imposed on it in Pakistan, perhaps many members of the notorious terrorist outfit sneaked into this side of Jammu and Kashmir. Now when there is tremendous pressure on them from the security forces, they may be trying to convey the message that they are very much alive and active. But the truth is that the enemies of peace are on the run. They may be mercenaries trained in Al-Qaeda camps and pushed to this side by their Pakistani mentors as part of the proxy war, which General Musharraf tries to hide as "freedom struggle". Or the killers may be the remnants of the Lashkar who have indulged in re-arousing communal passions as part of their strategy to find sanctuaries to survive.

Whatever the truth, simply saying that this is another proof of Pakistan's continuing involvement in cross-border terrorism will not do. There is need to have a fresh look at the security strategy. While it is necessary to further tighten vigil in the valley and elsewhere in the border state, measures should be taken to remove any scare among the people regarding the activities of terrorists. Once people feel confident about taking on the killers, they may approach the security forces with all kinds of help. This is crucial for neutralising the remaining terrorists. But the strategy should also involve political moves as demonstrated by the late Punjab Chief Minister Beant Singh. Most of the Hurriyat Conference leaders are inclined towards participating in the coming Assembly elections in the state. If they get the impression that the Centre has no favourites among the political forces in Jammu and Kashmir, the ranks of those in the Hurriyat who stand for jumping into the electoral fray for finding legitimate answers to their grievances will most probably grow. The Hurriyat appears to be gripped by the feeling that it must justify its claim of being the "most representative" conglomerate of the Kashmiris reflecting their aspirations , and the October polls provide the best available opportunity to do so. The Centre must do something to bring them to the poll arena so that an atmosphere of peace and goodwill can be created. Of course, the Hurriyat-appointed election commission can have no legitimacy. But one can think of having electoral observers enjoying the confidence of the Hurriyat and other political parties. In any case, people should get the impression that the days of militancy are over, notwithstanding incidents like the one that claimed eight innocent lives in Rajouri.

Militancy at a new high

MORE than 2,500 persons have been killed in the six-year-old conflict in Nepal, but the attacks on Sunday have been perhaps the bloodiest ever, claiming the lives of more than 134 persons. Mangalsen town and an airport nearby were turned into a smoldering mess by rebels who used stolen weapons to riddle bullets on army men and civilians alike. The massacre has put paid to the hopes that the declaration of an emergency and the induction of the army would help retrieve the situation. The government has vowed to fight back, but there are serious doubts whether it is fully geared to counter the challenge. Nevertheless, the bloodbath would help various political parties to sink their differences and mount a counter-offensive which is not derailed by political one-upmanship. There are indications that the state of emergency would be extended and Kathmandu would be providing more sophisticated weapons to the army. But the geography of the country is such that it is going to be extremely difficult to provide round-the-clock vigil in far-flung areas. A blood-thirsty insurgent armed with an AK-47 can gun down 50 or 60 persons whenever he wants to. Such trigger-happy maniacs are all the more unpredictable when they do not have sufficient ideological orientation and are only interested in terrorising common people into submission. Current reports indicate that the Maoist rebels do not enjoy much public support and are only thriving because they have managed to silence the common man through their terror tactics. The Nepalese government would do well to organise the public to fight them instead of depending solely on the security forces.

That also brings into question the reaction of the international community. After all, what is happening in Nepal is terrorism pure and simple, which every civilised country has vowed to fight. Neighbouring nations would have to crystallise their response in the face of such ticklish situations. India would have to be particularly forthcoming. There is a convergence of India’s and Nepal's security interests. If the latter seeks it, Delhi ought to be liberal in tendering advice or help to the extent feasible because India has a long history of fighting such insurgencies. It also has a large number of army and police specialists who can extend a helping hand. That does not mean by any stretch of the imagination that it has to get involved in what is essentially Nepal's internal matter, but it can surely provide full moral and consultancy support to the most reliable neighbour that it has.

RUN-UP TO THE BUDGET

Dialectic of development strategy
Whither second generation reforms?
Satya Prakash Singh

WHILE the world battles with the urgent security crisis arising out of terrorist attacks, including the most unbelievable one on New York’s WTC, the search for an appropriate strategy for economic development continues. For the last two decades or so, the world has adopted the strategy of LPG (liberalisation, privatisation and globalisation) for the purpose. India also has accepted that strategy since 1991. The SGR (second generation reforms) of the government aims at accelerating the LPG. What shape will the SGR take? Where will it lead to?

It is interesting to look at the dynamics of development strategies. Karl Marx believed that market was the villain of the piece. His model (socialist/communist) seemed to work well for some countries that tried it for some time. Then it failed, by and large. J.M. Keynes found that market was not effective enough; it needed the government’s intervention. His recommendations worked for a large part of the world for a long time. But in the last two decades of the last millennium it was discovered that the government systems were not effective enough. They needed the support of market mechanism. This realisation led to the LPG strategy.

India had its own strategy based on the socialistic pattern of society, Jawaharlal Nehru’s dream. No doubt, Nehru’s model was theoretically attractive. It did achieve significant successes in terms of several quantitative growth indicators. But it failed to achieve its avowed ultimate goals of eliminating poverty, inequality and injustice. It could very well be due to implementation dysfunction: “the plan was good but it failed because it could not be implemented properly” is the familiar cliché. The repeated failure of the model during more than four decades after Independence impelled Mr Narasimha Rao and Dr Manmohan Singh to initiate a bold policy shift and the reform process in 1991, their politically adroit claim for its being in continuity with the economic policy since the Nehruvian era notwithstanding.

The successive governments have also followed the LPG strategy. The reform process has continued. The new strategy has been successful in mitigating some of the urgent macroeconomic problems. But, unfortunately, the LPG strategy does not seem to do much in solving the basic problems of poverty, inequality and injustice. The SGR launched by the NDA government aimed at accelerating the LPG needs a critical reappraisal in this light.

The emergence of the global market system and revolutions in information and communications technology do not seem to effectively shoot all the problems. The Human Development Report (HDR 2001) of the UNDP admits thus: “Development and technology enjoy an uneasy relationship: within development circles there is a suspicion of technology-boosters as too often people promoting expensive inappropriate fixes that take no account of development realities. Indeed, the belief that there is a technological silver bullet that can ‘solve’ illiteracy, ill health or economic failure reflects scant understanding of real poverty.”

The Report reaffirms its hope on technology, albeit cautiously. To quote it, “While it is undeniable that many of the high technology marvels that dazzle the rich North are inappropriate for the poor South, it is also true that research and development addressing specific problems facing poor people — from combating disease to developing distance education — have proved time and again how technology can be not just a reward of successful development but a critical tool for achieving it.” Therefore, it suggests identification of global and national policies and institutions that can help accelerate the benefits of technology while safeguarding against the new risks that inevitably accompany them.

The Report’s conclusion regarding the conditions for the success of the new revolution in information and communications technology is acceptable. It will indeed depend on two things:

(i) How technology is used to empower people, allowing them to harness it to expand their choices in their daily life.

(ii) How the new opportunities of the network age are tapped to help create a critical mass of entrepreneurial activity that can generate its own momentum.

It is important to note that the suggested HDR strategy hinges on effective global and national policies and institutions. The World Development Report also suggests the same. Highlighting the importance of institutions for effective working of the global market mechanism, it says: “Effective institutions can make the difference in the success of market reforms. Without land-tilling institutions that ensure property rights, poor people are unable to use valuable assets for investment and income growth. Without strong judicial institutions that enforce contracts, entrepreneurs find many business activities too risky. Without effective corporate governance institutions that check managers’ behaviour, firms waste the resources of stakeholders. And weak institutions hurt the poor especially. For example, estimates show that corruption can cost poor three times as much as it does the wealthy.”

How can these effective institutions be built? The WDR 2002 gives four lessons on building effective institutions. These are:

“Design them to complement what exists — in terms of other supporting institutions, human capabilities, and available technologies. The availability and costs of supporting institutions and capacity determine the impact of any particular institution. By understanding how institutions interact, we can identify priorities.

“Innovate to identify the institutions that work — and those that do not work. Sometimes this requires experimentation. Even in countries with similar incomes and capacities, innovation can create stronger institutions because of differences in local conditions, differences that range from social norms to geography. Countries can gain from expanding successful public innovations and adopting private innovations. But they must have courage to drop failing experiments.

“Connect communities of market players through open information flow and open trade. Exchanging information changes behaviour. It creates demand for institutional change by holding people to account and supplying ideas for change from outside the community. Linking communities of people in networks of information and trade is thus a priority for those building market-supporting institutions.

“Promote competition among jurisdictions, firms, and individuals. Developing country market actors often face too little competition, and changing this will significantly improve institutional quality. Greater competition modifies the effectiveness of existing institutions, creates demand for new ones, and increases choice for consumers. Competition among jurisdictions highlights successful institutions and promotes demand for them. Competition among firms and individuals does the same.”

One cannot but agree with the World Bank Report. Clearly, the future of the second-generation reforms in India will depend on how successful the country is in creating the right kind of institutions. But the problem is who would do what HDR 2001 and WDR 2002 want done. Who would design the institutions complementing the existing ones? Who would innovate to identify the institutions that work and discard those that fail? Who would connect the communities of market players? Who would promote competition? Is it assumed that the government will do? Now, does the government have the will and necessary wherewithal to effectively build effective institutions? Will the states and the Centre be able to devise the required integrative strategies? And last but not the least, will the international organisations support Indian efforts (unconditionally)?

How can the Central government effectively introduce the required comprehensive reforms in a society afflicted by rampant corruption, red tape, political shortsightedness, religious bigotry and an unending list of other maladies? The government is, in fact, caught in a cleft stick due to conflicting political ideologies and expediencies of the NDA constituents and vested interests operating from within and outside the coalition. When it comes to making hard choices the Indian “soft state” dithers! Two recent examples are the postponement of the value-added tax system again, and the indecision concerning Enron’s Dabhol.

What is the extent to which organisations like the UNDP, the World Bank and WTO will be able to do what they preach? The empirical evidence of what happens at the international stage when it comes to the core issues of development raises doubts about the ability of the world organisations to do the needful. One recent example is the Doha Ministerial Conference held from November 9 to 14 last year, where the only positive outcome for the developing countries was “postponement” of the decisions that India and other developing countries did not like.

It is not even clearly defined what the “second generation reforms” are. Academic polemics contained in articles written by experts and discussions in seminars apart, in practice whatever changes the government will constitute the second-generation reforms! Reportedly Sebastian Edwards coined the term “second generation reforms” in an unpublished note in 1996 to mean (i) central bank independence; (ii) budgetary constraint on all levels of the government; (iii) creation of an efficient civil service; (iv) improvement in citizens security; and (v) judicial reforms to strengthen the rule of law. That is a tall order, in the age of self-centered politics devoid of long-term interests of society and even of political parties!

It is expected that the government will try to follow, within the socio-political constraints, the recommendations of the UNDP, the World Bank, the IMF and other international agencies. Building effective institutions that will facilitate the working of the reform process should form the main plank of the SGR. The Finance Minister may propose bold initiatives in the coming Budget. The pre-Budget reforms being announced by the government, repositioning of Gail, acquisition of VSNL by Tatas and IBP by Indian Oil, etc, are pointers to the winds of change. At the same time, the government will take direct action to rev up the real sectors with dismal performance in recent years, like manufacturing, agriculture and infrastructure. This may appease the anti-LPG lobby within the NDA and outside the government.

The dialectic of the development strategy has followed a strange course. People saw salvation in government intervention, then in market mechanism and, now in effective institutions (read the government)! The wheel of change will continue to move but probably with deceleration. This shall be particularly so if the results of the coming elections in the four states do not give a boost to the present government. In any case, the struggle to find an optimum balance between the market and the government is sure to hot up.

The writer is Professor, University Business School, Panjab University, Chandigarh.

REALPOLITIK

Polls deepen BJP’s tactical crisis
P. Raman

WHAT is rather curious about the present series of assembly polls has been that everyone seemed to know the results even before the polling. What polsters uniformly predicted for months have been further confirmed by the exit polls. Officially, the BJP leaders did make the routine poll-eve claims. But in private its political managers do concede the serious setback awaiting the main ruling party and its NDA allies in the current elections.

Delhi's power corridors have suddenly become hyper active. Every one is busy with speculating the immediate political changes in the three mainstream states without waiting for the official figures. Incidentally, need for a reassessment of the long-term political strategies are heard more into BJP. Many of them come out with their own "I-told-yous". A few neglected ones verily predict further jolts if the party goes ahead with its present policy of sattavad (obsession with power).

The rest of the political crowd in the drawingrooms is content with wild guesses on purely transient issues. Complexities of the ministry formation and the brightening stars of the incumbents are the main topics. Since the Akalis are presumably out in Punjab, whom will the Congress high command bless? Will it be able to satisfy other claimants, especially when it does not have powers to distribute favours at the Centre?

For UP, the guess work is no more on who will emerge as the party with largest number of seats. That seems to have already been settled. The question is who will form the government in a dangerously hung assembly. It need not necessarily be the largest single party or group. According to some observers, lust for power is so irresistible among sections of the MLAs that the first to get the invitation from the governor can form the government — presumably through horsetrading. This is more true of smaller groups who are in a better position to get over the anti-defection law.

From all accounts, the BSP, smallest of the three contenders, will have a better chance of wresting the chief ministership. If the results go by what psephologists and political pundits presume, this seems to be the only option other than keeping the house in suspended animation for some time. Mulayam Singh Yadav is not likely to lend support to Mayawati given the long enmity between them. Both the suspended animation of the assembly and BJP-backed Mayawati government have been tried earlier.

Since both the main rivals — BJP and Samajwadi Party — will strive hard to frustrate each other taking the mantle, the option clearly rests on Mayawati. Her firm grip on her ranks — but not so much on her MLAs — may induce her to repeat the disaster for a third time. BJP circles are already talking about what they call a 'Rajnath plan' to retain UP. Accordingly, Mayawati and her friends will be offered some lucrative cabinet posts at the centre in exchange for her support to the Rajnath Singh government.

Apart from adding another party to the list of the NDA, the 'Rajnath plan' will enable the BJP use the 'dalit card' to woo these sections. The party had tried it earlier. Let's don't forget that it was Rajnath Singh as the state BJP chief, and not Kalyan Singh, who had engineered a series of defections from the BSP and Congress. Once back to power, same game could be repeated in a different manner to acquire a permanent majority. Will Kanshi Ram support such fatal moves that are bound to restrict the BSP's activities elsewhere? We will have an answer only after the declaration of the results.

The damning electoral mandate is going to be an eye opener for the BJP. The party had resorted to all worn out tricks borrowed from the Congress to retain power. Like the change of chief ministers midway to give a youthful look. The 'carpet bombardment' under which an array of senior leaders launched a last-minute high pitch campaign throughout the state to create a 'wave' had little effect. Similar has been the fate of the most backward card and the much programmed Ayodhya agitation.

Too much reliance on the Pakistani threat and terrorism seems to have failed to catch the voters' imagination for different reasons. Terrorism becomes a common man's concern only when it directly affect him locally. Incidentally, Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav repeatedly made the point that if terrorism had increased, it has been due to the government's own failure to check it. Patriotism is an emotion that could be ignited only in situations like war.

Two aspects of the BJP campaign stood out — awful lack of fresh ideas and a pathetically defensive posture. Those who have witnessed the BJP's enthusiastic campaigns with provocative themes in 1998 and 1999 were surprised to see the tired faces who have nothing new to offer or claim as achievement. More than UP, the decline in Uttaranchal should cause more worry to the BJP. Here is a state where it had a steamrolling majority. At the time of its formation, it looked unbeatable in Uttaranchal.

The party's continuing stagnation has encouraged a section of the stalwarts to renew the debate on the very efficacy of the BJP's power-based expansion plan. It has two components — horizontal expansion by using the coalition at the Centre and moulding Vajpayee into Indira-style crowd puller and vote catcher. Now both seem to have floundered. Vajpayee's election tours this time failed even to energise the BJP's own election machinery in many places.

Hardliners in the BJP, though in a minority, argue that power at the Centre had forced the party abandon all its cherished values that had given it the necessary endurance during every crisis. Now they feel the government itself has become a burden. Its dependence on others restricts it from expanding in the regions held by the coalition partners. It has been losing its traditional strongholds one by one. If the polsters are indeed right, UP and Uttaranchal are going to be the latest to suffer the jolt.

There is erosion even in Gujarat, one of the last outposts. In spite of this serious political dilemma, the dominant leadership of the BJP is not likely to review its present strategy. A major consolation for the BJP will be that after every such electoral defeat, its NDA allies tended to back it with more determination. This has been due to their own compulsions at the provincial level.

While rapidly regaining the lost ground, two realities should dawn on the Congress. First, its struggle for a recovery has been effective in states where the BJP or its ideological allies are the main rivals. The party finds it formidable to take on the non-BJP adversaries like the TDP, Mulayam, Left, Laloo and DMK/AIADMK.

Second, its own splinter parties cannot hold on against it for a longer period. In the recent past, Mamata Banerjee has been the lone exception. This was due to her ability to fill a vacuum in West Bengal politics. But like Bansi Lal, she too would not be able to sustain it longer. Sharad Pawar’s rout and and the relatively better showing by the Congress in Maharashtra civic polls highlight the basic fact that the parent gene will eventually overpower the splinter.

TRENDS & POINTERS

A unique contest for writing love letters

"YOU are my 'Horlicks' that gives me energy to live, you're my 'Dairy Milk chocolate' that sweetens up the bitterness in my life, you're my 'Nescafe' that melts away the coldness of my life, you're a chilled 'Pepsi' that cools me when things heat up around me, you're 'Rin Supreme' which cleans up the mess in my life...".

Don't get zapped. The above is an excerpt from a love letter written by a young girl to his boyfriend. The love letter is one of the thousands of entries which were received from across the world for a lovers-contest being organised by the website www.loversrupak.com.

The aim of organisers of the contest is to generate feelings of love and bonhomie among the people especially when everyone talked about war and hatred.

The contest was a part of LOVE's (Lovers Organisation for Voluntary Exhibition) Valentine week celebrations. The competition opened on 14 February and will go on till 28th of this month.

Entries can be sent free of cost. The contest has two categories-terrorism, and natural love between two persons of opposite sex.

President of LOVE Rupak Manush said, "I along with some of my friends founded the organisation with a mission to start a sociopsychological movement".

The organisation began its work on 1 November, 2001, as an attempt to enhance the power of expression of love through letters, Rupak said.

A person in London wrote a letter to Osama bin Laden saying: “Hi Osama! What are you so angry about? I would like to forget the darkest hours of 11 September and request to spread peace and brotherhood...”.

Reacting to this letter, Manush said terrorists are also human beings and have a right to love. "We must hate terrorism and not terrorists...they are very much a part of society", he further said.

About the response generated for the contest, he said it is tremendous. "We are receiving entries from across the world", he added.

Eminent poet and writer Sunil Gangopadhyay, who is one of the members of the jury, said, "I want to see how good is the younger generation in expressing love to their loved ones. It reminded me of my youth when writing love letters had a norm. I used to quote poetry of well known poets in the letters".

He said the letters addressed to terrorists proved that the people loved them as individuals even as they abhorred terrorism. Actress Munmun Sen and singer-dancer Usha Uthup are the other members of the jury to assess the entries received for competition. ANI

American scientists find Alzheimer’s link 

American scientists have discovered a link between the chances of developing Alzheimer’s disease and a common substance found in the bloodstream.

The discovery that people with high blood levels of an amino acid called homocysteine are at a greater risk of developing Alzheimer’s could lead to a test to identify people most likely to become sufferers.

The team of scientists from Boston University and Tufts University announced their discovery in the New England Journal of Medicine and said they could not show homocysteine is a cause of Alzheimer’s.

But they said it was plausible that it could be, as the amino acid has been found to be able to damage blood vessels and nerves, and has already been linked to a higher risk of heart attacks and strokes. DPA

Grandma’s cod liver oil remedy is no myth

THE age-old belief in cod liver oil being good for joints has been proved right by researchers. Cardiff-based researchers say taking the supplement could delay or even reverse the destruction of joint cartilage and inflammatory pain associated with arthritic disease. It could even delay joint replacement surgery, says a report in BBC.

Although it is traditionally associated with old age, one in 1,000 children suffers from arthritis. Severe arthritis causes significant disability for over three million people. The condition can be life-threatening through its effect on other organs in the body and increased susceptibility to infection.

In the Cardiff research, Prof Bruce Caterson, School of Biomedicine, Cardiff University, looked at the effect of Omega-3 fatty acids (the main component of cod liver oil) on the discarded arthritic knees of people undergoing knee replacement surgery.

“We’ve been able to show that we can slow down or remove the activities of the enzymes that degrade cartilage in arthritis, and as well, we can keep inflammation down to a lower level,” he said. ANI

SPIRITUAL NUGGETS

The conception of a guru, as a spiritual teacher in the heart of a disciple, can only be there when he surrenders himself unconditionally, has humility and gives love and service without any barter. To achieve the grace of guru, the devotee has to be completely egoless, which is the main factor of a Spiritual life. With the extinction of his ego, all his objectives are fulfilled, attains pure bliss and flows with the rhythm of life rather than struggling against it. A disciple that has abandoned himself to his master with complete reverence and devotion, will never be deluded and experiences salvation.

— Dr Anand Swamiji, Himalayas

***

The mind is darkened by ignorance.

And qualities like friendliness and joy

Are not in evidence.

— The Ramayana

***

A compassionate glance is the eye’s true ornament.

Without such kindness, eyes become unsightly sores.

— The Tirukural

***

Death is like a bend in a continuous river of becoming.

— S. N. Goenka, Sayagyi U Ba Khin Journal

***

Laugh your way to God.

I don’t say:

Pray your way to God.

If you laugh you will be able to love.

If you can laugh, you will be able to relax.

***

Laughter... needs no talent, no learning, no discipline unless you are a born donkey.... The society has stopped you from going totally into it. If you go into a total laughter, people think it is hysterical. It is not; it is historical.

— Osho, The Wild Geese and the Water; Come, Come, yet again come; The Resolution.

***

The Memories of Vinoba Bhave

Remember,

Small is sweet

Much is mischief.

A stomachful of food and a cloth to cover the body, that is all we need.

Give ear to nothing save the words of the wise, of gods and saints.

— From Vichar Pothi (Random Reflections)