Jalandhar, January 29
Delay in fulfilment of the long-standing promise of waiving octroi, infighting in parties, especially in the SAD-BJP combine and its arch rival Congress, and leanings of Dalit and urban voters are the major factors which can affect the poll prospects of parties and their candidates in fray in the Doaba region.
While it is the presence of the Bahujan Samaj Party and rebels which is disturbing the Congress, it is delay in the abolition of the octroi system and disenchantment of urban voters which is worrying the BJP leadership. The BJP has been proud of its vote bank in Doaba and particularly Jalandhar, known as a birthplace of Jan Sangh and the DAV movement in Punjab.
For the Congress, the major headache is created by rebels and heavyweights who are working against the official nominees at some places like Malvinder Singh Chahal, former minister Gulzar Singh ( Kapurthala), Jaikishan Saini (Jalandhar) (Central), Jagdish Kumar Dakoha, Jalandhar (Cantt), and former Punjab minister Jagtar Singh Multani (Bholath) on one hand. The other factor is the strong presence of BSP and Dalit votes in Jalandhar (South), Phillaur, Nakodar, Hoshiarpur, Garhshankar, Mahilpur and Banga.
Similarly, though there is open rebellion in the BJP, fissures are visible in case of some seats. In Jalandhar (North), Mr Naval Kishore Kamboh and his supporters opposed the candidature of Mayor Suresh and in Hoshiarpur a number of senior party leaders like state executive member Capt Vikramjit Singh resigned over the “inaction” of the party leadership against two senior BJP leaders, including official nominee Tikshan Sood, who is also the State Minister for Excise and Taxation.
Mr Bharat Bhusan Handa, another executive committee member, has announced that he will contest as an Independent candidate against Mr Sood.
Factors like delay in the abolition of octroi and the poor state of industry, particularly in Jalandhar, which is known as an industrial hub after Ludhiana, and the failure of the government to bail out industry, are likely to cause damage to the SAD-BJP combine in general and the BJP in particular. The urbanities, particularly businessmen and industrialists, are of the view that though the BJP had promised in its manifesto before the 1997 poll that octroi would be abolished soon after it came to power, it did nothing in this direction for about four-and-a-half years. They also see no logic in the statement of the Punjab Chief Minister, Mr Parkash Singh Badal, that the delay in the extension of the facility was caused as the state coffers were empty.
The general sentiment is that the government had done little for urban segment while facilities like free power and water were extended to the farming class.
The swing of Dalit voters, who constitute about 25 per cent of the voters of the Doaba region, holds the key in case of some segments like Kartarpur, Hoshiarpur, Mahilpur, Garhshankar, Jalandhar (South) and Banga. In the midst of caste factor, the Kartarpur (reserve) constituency will witness a keen contest between two stalwarts — Chaudhary Jagjit Singh, vice-president of the Punjab Congress, and Mr Charanjit Singh Atwal, Punjab Assembly Speaker. Chaudhary Jagjit Singh had retained the seat during the 1997 poll.
Banga, which also has a strong presence of Dalits, is to see a direct fight between the SAD-BJP and Bahujan Samaj Morcha candidate Satnam Kainth and Mr Mohan Lal of the BSP.
Caste factor is important in Bholath, too, where the Congress has pitted a Jat Sikh in Sukhpal Singh Khaira against SAD stalwart Bibi Jagir Kaur, who belongs to the Lobana community. There are about 35,000 votes of Lobanas and about 45,000 of Jat Sikhs in the constituency.
