Jammu, May 20
The ruling National Conference, headed by Dr Farooq Abdullah, is said to have started the preliminary exercise of securing from the state Intelligence Department a report on the victory prospects of its sitting MLAs and those of the organisation itself.
Informed sources said the state intelligence agency had been asked to carry out a survey in all 87 constituencies and prepare an assessment report on the poll prospects of each National Conference sitting MLA.
The agency has been also asked to include the names of those party men who could also be considered for the party ticket if they stand a better chance of winning than the sitting MLAs.
According to the sources, the exercise has been started as part of the Chief Minister’s plan to go in for early Assembly poll to ensure another six-year term for his party.
Before his demise, the then Law Minister, P.L. Handoo, had suggested to the Chief Minister to go in for byelections to four seats that had fallen vacant. Handoo wanted the National Conference (NC) leadership to test its strength but neither the Chief Minister showed any keen interest nor the Centre was willing to oblige the party. The Centre’s cold feet on the matter was the result of its plan to have a deal with the separatists so that they could also participate in the Assembly elections.
With the demise of Handoo, there are now four seats vacant in the House, namely Vachi, Dooru, Tral and Habba Kadal. Habba Kadal in Srinagar was represented by Handoo, the Tral seat fell vacant after Mr Ali Mohammad Naik was elected to the Lok Sabha, Dooru was represented by Ghulam Hassan Bhat, who was killed when his car was blown up in a grenade blast, and Vachi fell vacant after the death of its representative, Abdul Jabbar.
The Chief Minister was under pressure from several quarters for filling these four seats. Latest reports said that Dr Abdullah did not want to go in for byelections.
The Chief Minister had already announced that the Assembly poll would be held early and advised all political parties to get ready. He has, at the same time, avoided disclosing any tentative period. Earlier, he had plans of holding the poll in June next year instead of October, 2002, when the elections are due in the state.
National Conference sources said the Chief Minister had not made up his mind yet and had tried to discipline his legislators and ministerial colleagues so that the fear of early elections could force them to come out of their slumber and visit their constituencies for preparing the ground for the party’s victory.
Dr Abdullah wait for the report from the intelligence agency and act accordingly. He fears that the BJP-led NDA government may not last for the full term and, being a partner in the NDA, its fall could put him in a predicament. Also, he does not want to give more time to the separatists to enter into some kind of an agreement with the Centre. If an agreement gets fructified, it may make the going tough for the National Conference in the elections.
Also, the Chief Minister is aware of the ongoing tussle between the RSS and the BJP, dissensions in the state unit of the Congress and the absence of any political leader who could claim to have a towering personality. He, therefore, wants to cash in on it.
Dr Abdullah has also the habit of going by the advice of soothsayers. A number of astrologers, saints and seers have been in demand and the Chief Minister has been assured of another victory for him and his party. The soothsayers, however, have reportedly informed him that his party may not be able to win a two-thirds majority as was the case in the 1996 Assembly poll.
