JAMMU, Aug 11 — Over the years, the Kashmir valley has witnessed the ebb and flow of the security situation. Yesterday’s two major explosions, in which 13 persons, including several security personnel, were killed and 23 wounded, were part of a major plan to kick up violence in the state prior to the Independence Day celebrations.

Success has many fathers and failure has none. For yesterday’s blasts Lashkar-e-Toiba has owned responsibility. The Director-General of Police, Mr Gurbachan Jagat, too has said that it was Lashkar-e-Toiba, game. However, the Hizbul Mujahideen top brass has also claimed responsibility for the explosions to convey to the government that when it had ordered a unilateral ceasefire, its activists had desisted from acts of violence and now that the ceasefire has been called off, Hizb activists were free to demonstrate their strength.

But even after the declaration of the ceasefire there were a series of massacres in Jammu and Kashmir in which at last 100 people were killed. Besides, there were a number of encounters between militants and the security forces and there was no indication of peace having returned to Kashmir.

The plan to kill people and security personnel was formulated not many days ago. Highly placed informed sources said three rebels held the driver of a Jammu and Kashmir Bank car hostage. They took the car from Basant Bag to the Residency Road with high-grade IED. After the IED was carried up to the targeted place, the driver was allowed to go but only after the blast.

The rebels first exploded a grenade to invite large groups of journalists, press photographers and security personnel. As the police reached the spot, the IED fitted with a remote-controlled device, was triggered to cause maximum destruction.

If one takes into account the developments during the past three weeks, one finds that Pakistan-aided militants have extended their network to various areas of the state. On August 1 and 2 militants attacked Amarnath pilgrims and labourers from outside the state at two places. Their efforts were supplemented by armed attacks on members of the village defence committees in Dechan in Kishtwar.

The incident was preceded by a bid to blow up the yatra registration centre in Jammu.

And when these incidents did not set the state on fire, a group of youths slaughtered a cow in a village in R.S. Pora which incited communal passions. However, the situation was defused by placing the town under curfew restrictions. Later, in Rajouri troops were fired upon by a group of militants from the house of a local resident. In the retaliatory fire, a civilian was killed and 18 were injured. The authorities had to impose curfew restrictions for three days.

These incidents indicate that the anti-India campaign by the Pakistan-trained militants has been diversified. Reports indicate that whether the Hizbul Mujahideen suspends its armed operations or not, there will be no major transformation in the security scenario because at least four powerful rebel outfits dominated by foreign mercenaries have been operating in Jammu and Kashmir.

A senior police officer said: “If Pakistan stops aiding militants, insurgency may not survive for more than three weeks.” He said the increase in the rate of infiltration and arms smuggling from across the border in recent months had given teeth to the militants who had been able to strike at will.

He made it clear that it was not possible for any security agency to check the activities of the militants on a large scale when more were keen on joining the rebel outfits and not many prepared to give information to the police.

He said at one stage many local people would voluntarily give specific information on the hideouts of the militants. But after scores of informers were killed, a scare among the people was evident.

Other senior government functionaries, who are worried over the turn of events, said though people and political leaders, including the Hurriyat Conference, had condemned the massacre of Amarnath pilgrims, they did not have the guts to give a call for a general bandh in protest against the carnage.

A group of renegade militants with the help of the police forced a bandh in Srinagar today in protest against yesterday’s killings. In fact, between 1994 and 1996 renegade militants played a vital role in sanitising several areas.

After the renegade militants were disowned by the government and the security agencies, they faced the wrath of the militants. Some were killed some forced to rejoin rebel outfits. Others fled Kashmir for good.

It is in this context that the Chief Minister, Dr Farooq Abdullah, has favoured strong steps for checking infiltration and arms smuggling from across the border.