Reshuffle of Cabinet on anvil
Tribune News Service

NEW DELHI, Oct 4 — The much-awaited reshuffle and expansion of the Union Council of Ministers may take place in the near future with the West Bengal Trinamool Congress and possibly the Haryana Vikas Party finding a place in the Atal Behari Vajpayee team. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which is the third largest party after the BJP in the block supporting the government, may not join the Ministry even in this round.

The ministerial reshuffle and expansion may be preceded by a reshuffle of the Secretaries to the government. This exercise may be used to smoothen the rough edges in those Ministries and Departments where the political executive and the bureaucracy have been working at cross purposes.

The President of India usually spends a fortnight in October-November every year at the Rashtrapati Nilayam in Hyderabad. The dates for President, Mr K.R. Narayanan’s, southern sojourn have not been fixed so far, keeping in mind the possible necessity for his presence in the capital for swearing in new members of the Council of Ministers.

The reshuffle and expansion exercise has been hanging fire since long. Every occasion in the past when Mr Vajpayee applied his mind to this subject, some hiccup or the other came in the way.

The Shiromani Akali Dal’s displeasure is latest in the series. It remains to be seen how the Prime Minister reconciles the contradictions over the Udham Singh Nagar issue. The Shiromani Akali Dal may not upset the Vajpayee applecart but its disenchantment with the BJP can affect the ruling party’s prospects in the forthcoming elections in Delhi, where the Sahib Singh Verma-led BJP regime is already on a sticky wicket, and also in the north-western parts of Rajasthan, adjoining Punjab, where the SAD can influence the outcome in some seats.

Both main players have flagged off their respective campaigns for the November poll. The BJP did so with a rally at Jodhpur in Rajasthan addressed by Mr Vajpayee on Saturday. The Congress, on the same day, held a meeting in the AICC office and finalised the Pradesh Election Committee for Madhya Pradesh. Apparently both parties chose to initiate the first steps in the states where they are respectively in power and their respective state governments vulnerable on the election front.

In his Jodhpur speech Mr Vajpayee let the cat out of the bag by challenging the Congress to bring a motion of no-confidence against his government in the Lok Sabha. He has hit the nail on its head — the issue in the November elections will not merely be the formation of governments in Bhopal, Jaipur, Delhi and Aizawl — the results may determine if the present ruling coalition will continue at the Centre or not.

From indications, available, Delhi Assembly results hold the key. If the Congress manages to wrest Delhi and possibly Rajasthan, then even its possible reverse in Madhya Pradesh will not be able to offset the process of realignment of forces in the Lok Sabha.

According to sources, while most sitting MPs would prefer the realignment to throw up a new regime, the advisers of Mrs Sonia Gandhi would prefer the Congress to return to power not by engineering realignment in the present House but by the process of fresh elections, possibly in February-March next year. The realignment, if it is achieved, will essentially be used to pull the rug from under the feet of Mr Vajpayee.

The CPM party congress which begins in Calcutta tomorrow is an important watershed. This meeting will determine whether this party, which has the largest presence in Lok Sabha after the BJP and the Congress and leads an almost stable 50-member Front in the House, will extend outside support, or even coalesce with Congress and other anti-BJP forces, at the Centre.

The coming week, therefore, is politically significant. If Mr Vajpayee finally chooses to expand his team, this exercise will have to be carried out keeping the November elections and its aftermath in mind.