Sonia prefers to wait
From Shubhabrata Bhattacharya
Tribune News Service

NEW DELHI, Nov 29 — Buoyed by the poll outcome, the Congress leadership has a difficult task at hand: partymen want the BJP-led coalition government at the Centre toppled. Mrs Sonia Gandhi, in her typical, cool and calculated style, prefers to wait. She would rather see the Atal Behari Vajpayee applecart disturbed from within than rocked from outside.

The winter session of Parliament, which begins tomorrow, will see not only mounting pressures on the BJP from its allies, but also signs of infighting within the BJP. Mrs Sonia Gandhi is watching the situation perhaps with a bit of amusement — the November 25 poll has consolidated her position not only within the Congress but even among its potential allies. For Mr Vajpayee, the situation ironically has been the reverse.

As the outgoing Delhi Chief Minister, Mrs Sushma Swaraj, put it, the elections were not fought between the Congress and the BJP but were an occasion for the BJP to fight the BJP. Differences between Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee and his Home Minister, Mr Lal Krishan Advani, have been the talk of the town. Yesterday, a senior journalist even described it as being a duel between North Block (Home Minister’s office) and South Block (Prime Minister’s office).

A section of modern thinking BJP leaders are also likely to question the primacy of the Rashtriya Swyamsevak Sangh in the party. This will add another aspect to the inner contradictions within the ruling coalition.

Five years ago, when elections were held in five states including Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi (the other two were Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh) in November 1993, the BJP had given a slogan which it soon thereafter preferred to forget — "Ram Rajya ki ore, Is baar Paanch Pradesh phir saara Desh". The slogan did not work.

This time the Congress had not given any similar slogan, but in effect the victory of the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan signals the comeback of the Congress to the mainstream.

Apart from Mrs Sonia Gandhi, another leader who has emerged stronger within the Congress is Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister, Digvijay Singh. Having retained his state in spite of fierce infighting within the party, Mr Singh who began his political career as Chairman of his local municipality has shown promise for the future. If he remains equally popular during his tenure as Chief Minister then the Congress certainly has a young leader waiting in the wings.

The triumph of Mr Digvijay Singh can also be seen as a tribute to the farsightedness of the late Rajiv Gandhi who had appointed him as the PCC chief in the mid-eighties. Along with him the late Rajiv Gandhi had projected Mr Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan (he too could be heading the government in his state now), Mr Ahmed Patel in Gujarat, Mr Tariq Anwar in Bihar and Mr Oscar Fernandes in Karnataka. While the first two have succeeded in their respective states, the other three are important AICC functionaries today. Under Mrs Sonia Gandhi, therefore, seasoned Congressmen can see the dream of late Rajiv Gandhi unfolding, slowly but surely.

Test lies ahead for Mrs Sonia Gandhi. In Madhya Pradesh, the mantle is bound to fall on the incumbent Chief Minister. However, the choice in both Rajasthan and Delhi will be tough. The respective PCC chiefs, Mr Ashok Gehlot and Mrs Sheila Dikshit, are contenders for the top job. The difficulty is that in both Delhi and Rajasthan, the party has recorded its best ever performance and there are far too many legislators who are going to seek adjustment into the not too many slots.

Mrs Sonia Gandhi knows that general elections may be round the corner. And that makes her job, of choosing the right persons for the right slots in the three states where Congress governments have been formed, much tougher.

Tohra blames it on Hindutva
Tribune News Service

NEW DELHI, Nov 29 — Even as the BJP began to take stock of the political situation after severe drubbing at the Assembly elections in the three Hindi-speaking states, the Shiromani Gurdwara Prabandhak Committee (SGPC) today held the Vajpayee government’s open pursuit of Hinduatva agenda responsible for reverses in the Assembly poll.

While addressing the BJP Parliamentary Party executive meeting the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, informed members that the alliance was intact as he had been assured by alliance partners that this would not make any difference to the Central Government, the SGPC Chief, Mr Gurcharan Singh Tohra, said the "BJP took the allies for granted and never took them into confidence while taking major economic and political decisions".

Blowing hot and cold, Mr Tohra, who is said to be nursing several grievances against the BJP leadership for ostensibly ignoring him and playing favourites with the Punjab Chief Minister, Mr Parkash Singh Badal, however, maintained that the Akali Dal would not withdraw support to the Vajpayee government.

Earlier, Mr Vajpayee told the party’s executive committee meeting that there will be demands for the Central Government to step down and stressed that the ruling alliance was ready to prove its majority on the floor of the Lok Sabha.

Briefing newspersons on the meeting, the Parliamentary Affairs Minister, Mr Madan Lal Khurana, tried to underplay the BJP’s defeat saying that the dismal performance was because of the price rise and to an extent to the law and order situation.

"But it is clear, it is the defeat of the BJP and not a victory of the Congress" Mr Khurana said in an attempt to defend his party.

Mr Vajpayee told the meeting that the BJP would work as a responsible opposition in the states where it had been defeated and assured that a strategy had been worked out for facing a likely opposition onslaught in the winter session of Parliament beginning tomorrow.

Mr Khurana said the rise in the prices of onions swayed the Delhi voter who failed to see developmental activities and positive achievements of the party in the Capital. He said he had forecast a week before the elections that the voter was expected to be moved by the price rise.

Denying that party indiscipline and rifts were the cause of the defeat since these had always been there in the BJP as in other parties, Mr Khurana, however, admitted that while rebel candidates in previous elections stepped down bowing to the party’s dictates, it did not happen this time.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister, who held informal discussions with some leaders of the alliance partners, is to address the general body meeting of the BJP and its allies in the Central Hall of Parliament tomorrow in the morning.

Sources said Mr Tohra’s attack was a tactical move to increase his bargaining power vis-a-vis the BJP leadership. Mr Tohra, who would like his supporters to be included in the Union Council of Ministers, would exert pressure on the Vajpayee government through the Indian National Lok Dal leader, Mr Om Prakash Chautala.

Mr Chautala, whose party failed to win a single seat in the Delhi Assembly, has been stressing that the INLD failed to win a seat because the former Delhi Chief Minister, Mr Sahib Singh Verma worked against the INLD candidates.

With the covert support of the Akali Dal led by Mr Tohra, Mr Chautala is expected to demand the dismissal of the Bansi Lal government in Haryana which was promised to him by the Prime Minister after the Jind rally. It may be recalled here that Mr Chautala had declared at the Jind rally that the INLD would withdraw support to the BJP led-government. Subsequently, the BJP high command had given an understanding to Mr Chautala that Haryana would be dealt with in accordance to his wishes, the sources said.

Both Mr Tohra and Mr Badal would also like to ensure that Udham Singh Nagar in Uttar Pradesh is kept out of the proposed Uttarakhand Bill.

Mr Tohra, in a strong indictment of the Vajpayee government immediately after the defeat in the Assembly elections, said that the results were on the expected lines since the BJP had failed to give good governance to the people. The prices of essential commodities had skyrocketed but the Government was chary to crack down on hoarders and blackmarketeers. He said adding that now some BJP stalwarts had themselves admitted that they should have acted earlier on this front.

The government had left a strong impression with the people that it was in league with the unscrupulous traders who were first responsible for edible oil adulteration leading to dropsy deaths in Delhi itself and later created a sort of scarcity psychosis causing a steep rise in the prices of onions and other vegetables.

On the Hindutva agenda, Mr Tohra said the BJP attempted to push through "Saraswati Vandana and Vande Matram" in schools and college education that, too, on the eve of the Assembly poll.

Ignoring the sentiments of the minorities, the BJP also tried to annul constitutional provisions, ensuring special educational rights to the minority communities, the SGPC chief said firmly stating that India was a pluralistic society with diverse cultural and religious traditions.

Mr Tohra said the BJP indirectly tried to implement the RSS agenda of the uniform civil code, the introduction of Sanskrit in educational institutions curriculum and the revival of "Manuvad" as part of its political weaponry.

The BJP seemed to have forgotten that it alone did not have the mandate to run the government on its own agenda, he said adding that the coordination committee of coalition allies had only remained on the paper.

Nemesis catches up with Badal
From A.S. Prashar
Tribune News Service

JALANDHAR, Nov 29 — Nemesis has finally caught up with the ruling SAD-BJP combine. The humiliating defeat suffered by the alliance may not mean much in the numbers game; the ruling combine commands a three-fourth majority in the 117-member Punjab Vidhan Sabha. But it is a definite indicator that things can no longer be taken for granted. The Badal government will have to perform better or face further reverses and alienation from the masses. The threat from a resurgent Congress is no longer a distant prospect.

The SAD-BJP alliance has had a string of electoral successes ever since the Badal government assumed office in February, 1997. The Tarn Taran Lok Sabha seat and Qila Raipur and Sham Chaurasi Assembly seats were retained by it. Therefore, there was a certain amount of complacency and overconfidence in the SAD ranks in to the latest electoral battle in Adampur.

"How can you expect the people to vote against the ruling combine when they know that one seat more or less will make no difference to the Badal government?" was a common refrain among Akali ministers camping in the constituency during electioneering. "They have to approach the government for getting everything done and therefore, will not annoy it...."

The result of the Adampur byelection has, therefore, come as a great shock to them. For the dominant Badal group in the Akali Dal, it is the second setback within a week. The first was the resignation of Mr Barjinder Singh Hamdard, MP, as chairman of the executive body of the Anandpur Sahib Foundation in the face of relentless criticism from the SGPC chief, Mr Gurcharan Singh Tohra and the jathedar of Akali Takht, Bhai Ranjit Singh. The defeat is bound to further embolden Mr Tohra and increase his sniping at the Badal government.

Mr Badal himself had campaigned tirelessly from morning till evening, pressing even his wife and son into the election campaign. Most of his ministerial colleagues also camped in the constituency for nearly a month. But it did not prove good enough. Issues like spiralling prices of essential commodities like onions and potatoes, shortage of DAP and a general feeling of lacklustre governance swayed the people more than the emotional appeals of "teaching the Congress a lesson for past misdeeds like Operation Bluestar and the anti-Sikh riots".

For Capt Amarinder Singh, the Congress victory in Adampur is a personal feather in his cap. It was his first election as President of the Punjab Congress and he knew that he was on trial. Mrs Rajinder Kaur Bhattal, whom he had replaced as the party chief, was waiting in the wings and watching closely along with several other detractors. The erstwhile maharaja of Patiala, therefore, left nothing to chance. He campaigned so vigorously that it surprised even the Akalis. He too drafted his wife and son in the campaign. Sensing victory, the Congress party's rank and file too galvanised itself and functioned like a well-oiled machine. Support from the CPI and CPM proved to be invaluable. This holds an important lesson for the Congress: the route to future electoral victories lies through poll alliances.

Adampur is a predominantly rural constituency with an electorate of 1.19 lakh. Although nestling in the shadow of Jalandhar city, which is the heart of the pro-Congress Doaba region of Punjab, Adampur had not returned a Congress candidate to the Vidhan Sabha for the past three decades. The last Congressman to be elected from here was Chaudhary Darshan Singh in 1967. Mr Kanwaljit Singh Lalli becomes the second Congressman in 31 years to find favour with the voters of Adampur. An earlier attempt by Mr Lalli to enter the Vidhan Sabha from Adampur last year failed when he lost to Mr Saroop Singh of the SAD by more than 16,000 votes. The byelection was caused by the death of Mr Saroop Singh.

An analysis of the voting pattern of the byelection shows that there has been a substantial shift in the preference of the electorate during the past one year and nine months. The SAD which polled 40,578 votes in February, 1997, showed a substantial fall of more than 5,000 votes. The Congress, on the other hand which secured 24,274 votes last year, gained by nearly 11,000 votes, bagging the seat in the process.

The BSP's fall was precipitous. It polled more than 17,000 votes last year but could manage only 8,365 this time, clearly indicating Dalits voted heavily in favour of the Congress. Mr Kanshi Ram, who has always regarded Dalits as his own vote bank, has a lot to think about in Adampur.

As regards the Akali Dal (A) headed by Mr Simranjit Singh Mann, its performance has been along expected lines. Mr Mann can however draw cold comfort from the fact that his candidate, Mr Anoop Singh Minhas, by polling 1,859 votes denied victory to the SAD.