Bihar is hungry & angry
TO be or not to be is the basic question for the average citizen of Bihar today.
The plunging rupee
LIKE in the case of much else in the country — politics for instance — there is nothing certain or stable about the rupee, except that it is heading downward in value.

Towards a strategy
for rural housing
by Dhurjati Mukherjee
WITH 76.37 per cent of the country’s population living in the rural areas, housing development for the rural poor assumes great significance.

Success fosters nationalism
by Hari Jaisingh
AMIDST the growing fissiparous tendencies and regional pulls and counter-pulls on the federal polity, doubts are often raised about India's ability to hold together.

. US-China dispensation in offing? By M.S.N. Menon THE American and Chinese peoples hold the destiny of the world in their hands. This was how President Richard Nixon proclaimed the US-China reconciliation in 1972. And the inscrutable Mao nodded in appreciation. Here was naked pursuit of power. To hell with democracy! Apple orchard lodge by O.P. Bhagat THE drive is long but thrilling. The car goes up and down and up again the serpentine mountain road. As I am seated near a window, I look like all the time like a child.

75 Years Ago

Gandharva Mahavidyalaya

ON Saturday, the 23rd anniversary of the Gandharva Mahavidyalaya, Lahore, was celebrated with much pomp in the S.P.S.K. Hall outside Mori Gate.

Bihar is hungry & angry

TO be or not to be is the basic question for the average citizen of Bihar today. The floods in Sitamarhi district have taken a heavy toll of life. From the Ganga to the Baghmati, there are numerous rivers which originate from the Himalayas. The whole state is a large pocket of poverty and an immense area of darkness. The final casualty figure of this year's rainy season will not be less than a thousand if the whole belt is properly surveyed. Most of the dead will not be the victims of the floods. Many will have died of preventable diseases and starvation. The misrule by the husband-wife team will go down in the recent history of Bihar as one of the darkest chapters. We have been cautioning the Union Government repeatedly about the deteriorating law and order situation there. Sitamarhi, which until recently was a part of the large district called Muzaffarpur, has been a tranquil area before the upsurge of warlordism and Naxalism. Private "armies" of rich landlords, for whom the tag of caste is the most prestigious thing, have been pitted against one another. Innocent people have been murdered in large numbers. Belchhi, Barbigha, Siwan, Lakshmanpur Bathe, Samastipur and Gaya are symbols of a society truncated by violent forces unleashed by reactionary elements. There is no government in Bihar in the sense of systematic governance. The bureaucracy rules and reigns with the support of politicians with ill-gotten money and communal muscle power. What happened outside the Sitamarhi Collectorate on Tuesday can happen anywhere in the state. People are being driven to savagery from civilisation by feudal lords and scheming political manipulators. A hungry man is an angry man. When his number multiplies and anger shoots up, blood is shed. The police is the agency of violence and when it fires to kill, only luck can save the hapless. The Collector and his subordinates in Sitamarhi should be given exemplary punishment without delay.

Political murders are taking place everyday in Bihar and those who can give a healing touch to the hurt people are usually found politicking outside the state. It will be difficult for a sane and sensible person to believe that when villagers are perishing in floods and violence is ravaging large areas, Mr Laloo Yadav and his wife are busy organising rallies in Patna and Lucknow against the"Centre's misrule". The situation is worsening fast. One has to go back to the days of Dr Shri Krishna Sinha to imagine what Bihar's intrinsic values and potential are. Governor Sunder Singh Bhandari has been doing his best to inform the Centre periodically about the growing anarchy in the vast region which has common borders with unquiet UP, Orissa and West Bengal. Nepal, where the fugitives get easy shelter, is just beyond Raxaul. The socio-economic change has been very slow in numerous districts, including Sitamarhi, which should have remained a sub-division of Muzaffarpur in view of its appalling impoverishment and proneness to violence. There is scope for the growth of technology and agriculture can be boosted with little effort. The evolution of urbanisation has corrupted the process of the agrarian revolution and large-scale industrialisation has not become a possibility yet. The classes are still tradition-bound and caste-bound and it may require social catastrophes—and not floods and quakes —before signs of socio-economic changes emerge from blood and gore. At the moment, it is necessary to provide the calamity-stricken people with adequate supplies of food, cloth and medicines. It will be proper for Mr Laloo Yadav, the de facto Chief Minister, to ask his wife to quit the "gaddi". If he does not do so, the President's agent should repeat his demand for Central rule in Lalooland. By the way, does Mr George Fernandes have any responsibility towards the suffering people who have acclaimed him as their leader? He and other representatives of the masses from Bihar now in Parliament should be present in their constituencies to provide succour to the unfortunate millions. If they have tears, they should shed them now. If they have a conscience, they should allow it to act for the good of the public.

The plunging rupee

LIKE in the case of much else in the country — politics for instance — there is nothing certain or stable about the rupee, except that it is heading downward in value. From a political skirmish to a fall in industrial production, from the Pokhran blasts to a distant thunder (say, in Tokyo), anything can make the rupee nervous. These days there is an unusual combination of all these factors and, no doubt, the Indian currency is in panic. On three days running it has shed much value — from Rs 42.66 to a dollar on Tuesday to 43.27 on Thursday (noon). With this, the rupee has shed nearly 12 per cent in value during the past year. From the looks of it, more trouble is in store for the beleaguered rupee. Take politics, it can only get murkier in the days to come, casting its shadow across the currency market. Exports are set to lose ground and industrial output can at best remain sluggish. There is much turbulence in all South-East Asian countries and Japan’s yen is wobbling between 147 to a dollar and 145. At this level it is a menace to neighbouring exporting countries and at least two of them may initiate evasive action to protect their flank. If China devalues its yuan and Hong Kong its dollar to regain the competitive edge they are losing in view of the market-led depreciation of regional currencies, the rupee will develop severe cramps. And the green-horn brokers in the Mumbai currency market will go crazy and pull down the rupee to something like 50 to a dollar. That is the magical level touted by exporters and reform advocates and gleefully endorsed by the champions of export-led growth.

The volatility of the currency market is mainly due to the immature hands trading there. One half of them have graduated from the extinct hawala market and the other half are products of foreign business schools. The first set, long accustomed to operating from the other side of the law, have well honed feline virtues necessary to be one step ahead of danger. The others suffer from the herd mentality. Both lack expert knowledge of the Indian conditions but spring to action the moment sentiment turns negative. For instance, on Wednesday the rupee started gaining the moment the RBI injected $ 100 million, peanuts when compared to the $ 6 billion which Japan and the USA pumped in last month to stabilise the yen around 140 to a dollar. Similarly when the SBI entered the market to buy dollars on behalf of public sector units, the rupee began its slide. The yen is now trading at 145 to a dollar, a vast improvement from 147 to a dollar on Tuesday. It may still lose against the dollar, keeping alive the threat of Chinese devaluation of its currency. That will be the biggest test for the rupee and it should come in the next few days, if not weeks.

Success fosters nationalism
Modern India's new heroes

by Hari Jaisingh

AMIDST the growing fissiparous tendencies and regional pulls and counter-pulls on the federal polity, doubts are often raised about India's ability to hold together. A number of foreign commentators have expressed reservations on the country's ability to survive as one nation. I pooh-pooh such apprehensions by the prophets of doom as misplaced overreaction to certain aberrations because of the failure of the leadership and the system.

True, the country has gone through the worst possible turbulent periods during the past 50 years. It has faced four wars and proxy wars from across the border. Pockets of discontent exist in almost every segment of society. Parts of the North-East are in the grip of insurgency. In Jammu and Kashmir, militancy poses a formidable threat to Indian secularism.The large-scale infiltration of foreign mercenaries in the valley and beyond has made the situation complex and explosive.

Punjab has gone through a long period of terrorism, the undercurrents of which are visible even now. Tamil Nadu has its own areas of restlessness. So is the case with Andhra Pradesh, especially the Telengana region. In Bihar, lawlessness and the gun cult are very much part of life. The country, for all practical purposes, has become ungovernable, because of the growing nexus between criminals and the powers that be. Indeed, gangsterism at all levels is destroying the basic fabric of Indian society.

One feels disheartened at the way the nation's affairs have been mismanaged by the ruling class, both at the Centre and in the states. Their failure has been total. And this failure is not confined to the political arena alone. It is very much pronounced in social and economic spheres as well.

Tribals have their own grievances. The havenots continue to nurse wounds of deprivation. The poor have become poorer because the ruling clique has not done enough to uplift them socially and economically.

Still, amidst all these dark signs the nation has managed to hold together under one flag, one Constitution and common emotional and cultural bonds. The inherent inner strength keeps the nation going. There is something vibrant, positive and forward-looking in Indian spirit.

Of course, it is difficult to understand Indian spirit that sustains national feelings irrespective of caste, creed, sex and religion. In fact, India has developed a multi-lingual, multi-religious and multi-racial nationalism, notwithstanding the opposition that such national ethos has faced, time and again, from the regional, linguistic and parochial forces. But the development and ascendancy of this secular, composite national spirit has been dealt with hostility that is sometimes encountered from some extremist Hindus and Muslims alike.

To me the Indian spirit is the feeling of oneness that surfaces in the face of grave provocations. The Indian spirit is invisible and yet indomitable. It is half cultural and half religious in its overtones. It carries within it some of the finer instincts of humanity. It is an invisible force that links the past with the present and keeps the nation going. Call it subdued nationalism, if you so desire. And there are several symbols of nationalism that hold the country in the silken threads of unity.

Be that as it may. The country in recent years has been witnessing new symbols of nationalism which are different from old theories and concepts. Interestingly, these new symbols float on the wings of globalisation and commercialisation.

These symbols of nationalism revolve around successful Indians in different facets of national life. Take the case of Dr A.P.J. Abdul Kalam. He represents India's new national ethos based on missile power. Who cares if he happens to be a Muslim? The millions of Indians see in him a new messiah of nuclear India. The increasing popularity of the Bhabha Atomic Centre among young Indians seeking a job there tells its own story of modern India.

In fact, Dr Abdul Kalam along with Dr R. Chidambaram and a host of other scientists represent India's new secular nationalism which is above caste, creed and community. They represent New Society that is in the making. They also represent India's new swadeshi spirit of self-reliance and indigenous power.

What is remarkable about Dr Abdul Kalam is his educational background. A Tamil Muslim, he was educated in a Christian college. A grassroots product, he never had education overseas. This fact has come as a total surprise to a number of foreign journalists and experts. He had gone abroad only once — that too for a brief period. This should give new confidence to young Indians about the future of India.

Dr R. Chidambaram, again, is yet another symbol of modern India. A Brahmin by birth, he too studied in a Christian college. Today he and Dr Abdul Kalam represent India's missile-cum-nuclear-propelled nationalism. I am sure, consciously or sub-consciously, the achievements of these two Indian scientists will inspire thousands of young technocrats and scientists who would like to follow in their footsteps in taking the country forward.

This is, of course, not a new phenomenon. Earlier, we had persons like Dr Homi Bhabha and Dr Vikram Sarabhai who also symbolised India's new power as a modern state. These scientists had given to Indian nationalism a new meaning, a new focus— something which once got projected culturally and spiritually by great souls like Swami Vivekananda, Rabindranath Tagore and Sri Aurobindo and a host of other eminent Indians who dominated the national scene during the freedom struggle.

These signposts apart, the sport area too has thrown up new symbols of Indian nationalism. The most amazing feat in this respect has been achieved by cricket stars such as Kapil Dev, Sunil Gavaskar, Mohammed Azharuddin, Sachin Tendulkar, Saurav Ganguly, Anil Kumble, Srinath, etc. Their victory in the international arena brings the country together in hailing their heroes. A defeat instantly lowers the spirit of young Indians throughout the length and breadth of the country irrespective of their caste, religion and community affiliations.

Interestingly, nationalism seen on the cricket field has sponsors in multinationals. Both Pepsi Cola and Coca Cola have done a lot in promoting these new cricket stars. Of course, their goal is commercial and giving boost to their products. But, wittingly or unwittingly, they have been riding high on the crest of new nationalism on and off the field.

There have been similar success stories in other sport events in tennis and snooker. Even P.T. Usha and Milkha Singh's earlier feats had given the countrymen a sense of pride. At one time hockey was at the centrestage of Indian nationalism with Major Dhyan Chand, Balbir Singh and a host of others dominating the scene.

Interestingly, how fierce could nationalism become on and off field was seen recently during the World Cup soccer tournament. Joy and tears went with the ups and downs of the teams. Even French nationalism has found a new meaning with their success in the World Cup soccer. The most impressive display of nationalism was seen with the success of the young nation of Croatia.

The message is clear. Nationalism is getting redefined. Indian nationalism too is looking for new symbols, beyond the narrow parameters of mandir and masjid. No questions are asked about Azharuddin's captaincy. For millions of Hindus, he represents modern India's secular march. The same is true of successful Hindus, Sikhs and even Parsees who have excelled and brought glory to the country and the people.

Indeed, we ought to acknowledge the emergence of an enlightened elite in Indian society with rational commitment to nationalism. Here the main problem before the leadership is how to widen the commitment not only among the Hindus but also among the minorities, especially the Muslims and the Sikhs. This is the real challenge the quintessence of which has got diluted because politics and politicking have created new mental barriers and suspicions between the majority and minority communities.

At the inauguration of the Bhakra Dam, Jawaharlal Nehru hailed dams and factories as new temples of modern India. Today's successful Indians are new symbols of Indian nationalism, be they cricketers or scientists or entrepreneurs. I believe that today's nationalism has, by and large, retained its secular quality. And this secular nationalism will stand the test which has been set for it by adverse circumstances. This depends on the new generation that has grown up in independent India and does not know much about the controversies and problems of earlier phases of nationalism. Interestingly, India's new nationalism has become more and more economic and cultural. India must be economically strong to safeguard its freedom against the US sanctions and pressures.

The challenge before the country today is to enlarge these areas of success and consolidate the gains. The new Indian is here. He is the hope of a resurgent India in the 21st century. All that is required is to turn this country into a land of opportunity, free it from the clutches of bureaucrats and the corrupt practices of politicians and middlemen. Equally vital is the need for Indians to have "firm faith that India must rise and be great."

Towards a strategy for
rural housing
by Dhurjati Mukherjee

WITH 76.37 per cent of the country’s population living in the rural areas, housing development for the rural poor assumes great significance. Traditionally, the state, public agencies and the formal private sector have played a marginal role in the supply of rural housing. Unlike cities, neither a master plan to control the development nor building byelaws to guide construction exists. Houses in a typical Indian village are self-built (or self-managed) using locally available materials and skilled and unskilled labour meant mainly for family use and financed through family savings and informal credit. Rural housing in India is still primarily a people’s process.

The recent National Housing Policy assesses the rural housing situation to be qualitatively different from the urban. An owner controlled rural house is typically incremental in nature, built within means and suitable to the family’s functional needs, socio-cultural aspirations and aesthetic taste. But the role of the state sector is very important in social housing, specially in encouraging and subsidising low-cost building materials and make them available to the rural population.

An effective role by the state-sponsored social housing programme aimed at delivering land sites and constructed houses to the rural poor on a subsidised basis, on the one hand, and encouraging construction to meet the housing demand of the better off sections on a commercial basis, on the other, are relatively new features of the rural housing scenario. It is important here to mention that an improvement in the quality of living of rural poor has to be steadily achieved, and for this the state has an important role to play.

The Indira Avas Yojana has been building houses but much below the required levels. Even then the Yojana and other social housing schemes have greatly helped to generate employment, provide skill training, integrate the provision of basic services and organise communities. However, these schemes suffer from poor site selection, poor design and construction, faulty beneficiary selection, corruption and inadequate services and deficient facilities on new sites. It is pertinent here to mention that NGOs could be considered as potentially capable intermediaries though their activities haven’t made the required impact either on policy or programmes.

The essential part of rural housing challenges in India is developing a self-sustaining delivery system. Lack of an effective demand, which is a function of static income and savings and absence of a housing credit system are the major constraints to its development. Rural economic growth, therefore, is a pre-condition to developing a sustainable housing delivery system. If more attention is given to agriculture and agro-based and cottage industries, the rural economy is bound to prosper which, in turn, would lead to proper housing. Moreover, if NGOs take the initiative, the quality of the houses would also change for the better.

It needs to be pointed out that a dual system, where one set of villagers repay (in full or in part) the cost of a house and the other gets it free, through state subsidy, is evidently not workable. Though subsidised housing schemes continue to be introduced periodically, experience suggests that in the long run they are not sustainable, specially when the required investment is massive, as a large number of homeless are to be covered.

Regarding the question of housing finance, the reference that is frequently given nowadays is the Grameen Bank of Bangladesh. Unconventional in approach and spirit, the rural credit programme of the bank is worth emulating. Its spread covers 35,000 villages and it has over two million borrowers, 90 per cent of whom are women. The interest rate is around 18 per cent and the average loan recovery is a remarkable 99 per cent on a loan portfolio of approximately $ 1.75 billion.

Not many expected similar results when Grameen Bank launched its rural housing activity. However, on a programme covering over 300,000 houses in six to seven years, loan recovery performance is a comparable 98 per cent. Compared to this, HUDCO’s loan recovery is a dismal 30 per cent though the books of accounts show 100 per cent recovery because of state government guarantee.

The success of the bank has been achieved because of its faith in the poor people and in their resolve to help themselves solve their problems. Collective self-interest is the collateral, and the community has been made to realise to act responsibly against irresponsible/defaulting behaviour of an individual. Faced with a daunting task of housing millions of inadequately sheltered villagers, developing such a system in India is critically important. In fact, the entire rural housing finance and delivery system — resource mobilisation, role of housing finance agencies and housing intermediaries, delivery mechanism and the recovery system — needs to be geared up.

The housing shortage in the country has been estimated at around 22 million units, out of which 13.66 are in the rural areas. As such, the problem is indeed enormous entailing an expenditure of over Rs 120,000 crore for the entire country. As such, an effective rural housing strategy has to be evolved. — INFA

75 YEARS AGO
Gandharva Mahavidyalaya

ON Saturday, the 23rd anniversary of the Gandharva Mahavidyalaya, Lahore, was celebrated with much pomp in the S.P.S.K. Hall outside Mori Gate.

The celebration took place under the chairmanship of Pandit K. Santanam. The assembly consisted of about 400 persons, including a number of ladies.

The meeting was opened with a benedictory prayer by the Principal and the staff of the college. This was followed by a short musical programme.

Then the annual progress report of the college was read in English, which described in detail the work done during the year by the college. This was followed by a cultural programme, including songs by several students of the institution, which reflected a great credit on the institution.

Then followed a short speech on the subject of music by Pandit Kedar Nathji Shastri. The President then delivered a speech in English to the audience in which he eloquently dwelt at great length on the lamentable state of this art in the Punjab. He showed the necessity of the maintenance of such an institution in this province, where it was greatly required for the continuance of music.

Concluding, he made a stirring appeal to the public for funds for the college building which is the first desideratum for the healthy growth of the institution.

Apple orchard lodge
by O.P. Bhagat

THE drive is long but thrilling. The car goes up and down and up again the serpentine mountain road. As I am seated near a window, I look like all the time like a child.

Tall, the hills are green — monsoon wet and green. So are the terraced fields and the valleys below. On the hillsides and the level ground stand isolated houses. They look like odd, overlarge boxes placed there.

At one turn a cloud comes before the windscreen. At the next it is all gone. Here a valley is wrapped up in vapours. There a big chunk of cloud rests on a hill or, like smoke, it seems to be rising from among the trees.

Many more turns and twists in the road. Then the car stops near a gate. We — four in all — have reached our destination, Mountain Trail, at Mukteshwar.

Actually, the small town is some distance away. About 45 km from Nainital it is on a higher altitude. But it has not been developed into a hill station yet.

There is more in favour of the place. As Jim Corbett writes, “It is the most beautiful spot in Kumaon”. On a clear day you can see a whole panorama of the valleys and snowy peaks around.

It was near this town that the famous shikari shot the infamous tigress that had killed 24 men and women.

Long before that a demon had been a terror there. Shiva rid the place of the evil-doer. This meant “mukti” for the demon and peace for the people.

The resort, Mountain Trail, is built in an apple garden. As the summer holiday season is over, we are the sole guests there. The trees and birds are our only company.

The orchard had already been there. In building the resort, the owner took care not to cut down any tree. The fruit trees grow as in a thick grove. All the rooms are on a higher bank on one side.

Green, golden, blushing red, apples of all these colours cluster the branches. Some of the trees carry more apples than you can count.

Some pear, plum and apricot trees are there as well. Besides, a lot of flowering and ornamental plants grow along the paths. Dahlias, nasturtiums and calendules, which grow in the plains in early spring, are in bloom here these days.

At dawn, as you lie in bed, you hear the birds chirping outside. In the daytime you can spot some familiar and unfamiliar birds on the trees. Insects like beetles and mayflies are also there. But no flies or mosquitoes buzz around.

Unless the clouds are low or it rains heavily, you see the green of the garden trees merge with the green of the trees across it. It goes further to join the green of the trees on the hills, right up to their stately tops.

It is so soothing to the eye. And the solitude soothes the mind too. You are amidst the beauty of unspoilt, unpolluted nature. You may not find it at a bustling hill station, much less in a busy, bustling town or city.

Those who want fun and frolic need not worry. From the rooms steps lead down to the garden. Half-hidden by the trees is a hall. It is used for parties and small conventions. If necessary, it is turned into a discotheque. A huge fireplace in a corner speaks of the winter and Christmas glow and cheer.

Then there is a club where you can play cards and indoor games. For the old and young who want to read, there is a library. Also a small kids’ park. During the season the guests are taken to the nearby streams and waterfalls.

You may be in a thick. out-of-the-way grove of a garden. And yet you have all the fun, all the music, all the family talk and laughter.

US-China dispensation in offing?
By M.S.N. Menon

THE American and Chinese peoples hold the destiny of the world in their hands. This was how President Richard Nixon proclaimed the US-China reconciliation in 1972. And the inscrutable Mao nodded in appreciation. Here was naked pursuit of power. To hell with democracy!

Today the dream of the condominium, that of the USA and China, is taking shape, with Japan in tow. This is not inspired by the future destiny of Asia, but by thoughts of turning Asia into a US-China fief. The architect of this policy of US-China entente was, of course, Dr Henry Kissinger, a devotee of Clauswitz. But Mao was no less enthusiastic about the condominium.

Presidents have no hand in the making of US foreign policy. At best, they are conductors of an orchestra of its national interests, in which what takes precedence is the axiom that the business of America is business. These national interests have their own priorities. For example, the interest of the military-industrial complex comes first.

But in a world of competing business interests, power is what ultimately matters. “Power is everything, says Machiavelli. All means are justified for this end, and the attainment of power is itself a proof of virtue, according to him.

Americans are children of the Roman legacy, and if they have swerved from the path of Jefferson and Dewey and found comfort with Machiavelli, it is because power, unlike virtue, has greater rewards to offer. The pursuit of truth and justice is much more difficult and hazardous as Plato discovered to his cost, and not much rewarding in the end. And yet this immigrant society is compelled to conform to a social norm to be recognised as Americans. Herein lies the root of its great hypocrisies and deceptions.

To be virtuous and ethical, these are goals the Americans gave up long ago. Power will no doubt make it feared or hated, but, as wisdom has it, men are not likely to remember slights and injuries. Vietnam has almost forgotten its war with America! Nationalism can hardly survive amidst the clashes of ‘varna’ and castes, and now of ethnic groups.

One of the first Americans to advocate containment (of Tsarist power, in this case) was Admiral A. Mahan, a geopolitician, who was fascinated by the idea of organising an anti-Russian alliance of Britain, Germany, Japan and the USA. His strategy was to use the Japanese and the Germans against the Russians and remain the “third rejoicing party.” Here was the doctrine of the balance of power in its most naked form — that the USA should enjoy the imperium at the cost of other nations.

That is how the USA remained the “third rejoicing party” in both world wars, and emerged as leader of the Western world by improving its position in the meantime. In the post-war years, it tried to stampede the newly independent nations into US military alliances.

America’s post-war policies were influenced by such theoreticians like Prof Nicholas Spykman, who called for an “equilibrium” between the Soviet Union and the outlying countries and suggested Germany and Japan as formidable counterweights to the Soviet Union. What was good for Europe and Asia, Spykman said, was a state of “unstable equilibrium” between states. NATO was created to provide this “equilibrium” in the West. But the East remained “vulnerable” till the Soviet-Chinese ideological conflict opened up new possibilities for the USA to build up an Eastern “equilibrium”. But the Eastern “equilibrium” is far more difficult and complex to maintain.

In essence, the present US policy in Asia expects China and Japan to promote US global interests. In return, it is prepared to give both a freer hand to dominate Asia. China has already become a close US ally. In fact, in this scheme, the Chinese are more likely to be adventurous, being more self-reliant, whereas the Japanese, being heavily dependent on the world for resources and trade, are likely to be more cautious.

What is the Chinese game? Obviously, by aligning itself with the USA, it hopes to build up a mighty China both in economic and military terms. In turn, the USA wants to make China a willing partner in shaping the world which will largely remain under Western dominance.

For this China will exact a heavy price from the USA. The US aggression against Vietnam was a glaring example. Here lies the danger to Asia and to India.

What does this portend for India? Above all, it would imply that the USA would be of no help to India against Chinese excesses in Asia or even in checking China’s interference in South Asia. In fact, India has never been a significant factor in American geopolitical calculations in Asia, even against China in the earlier years owing to India’s refusal to play the American game. But, at the same time, India cannot be ignored because of its size, resources and strength, and, may I say, because it remains the most unpredictable entity among nations.

In any case, the USA knows that it would make a substantial difference if India throws its weight on either side of the great divide — whatever be that divide, and that divide will not take long to emerge. Hence there is a convergence of interests in the case of both China and the USA to weaken and, if possible, balkanise India. They cannot countenance the emergence of a powerful India. Conversely, anti-American forces will look to India for support. (But India is unlikely to lead an anti-US alliance this time.)

Already efforts are on by China in the northern border of India and in the eastern parts to stir up revolts and disaffection against India. The South Asian nations are under strong pressure to toe the Chinese line. The USA is in full sympathy with these Chinese objectives. The extent of its own involvement in this game is not clear.

If there is a concert of nations to bring about a new world order, there is no evidence of it yet. Instead, there is a clear effort to bring about a new order under the US-China dispensation.

But all these calculations of Washington and Beijing can go awry. Today Western Europe is going its own way. Russia is no more enamoured of American patronage. And Japan is concerned over the US build-up of China. But, above all, is there a conflict of civilisations in the making? Is Islam up in arms against the Western world? Will it concentrate its attack on the “great Satan”? On which side is India’s sympathy going to be?

Perhaps the answer is obvious. India wants to see the end of US dominance in the world. It cannot support a power which has been consistently hostile to our interest ever since Independence.