Amid differences, will COP-29 achieve ‘trillions of dollars’ commitment for climate action?

The primary goal of this year’s United Nations climate summit—COP 29—currently underway in Baku, Azerbaijan, is to build consensus for a stepped-up climate finance. The Baku COP is focused on climate finance, including the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), therefore it has also been dubbed ‘Finance COP’.

Over the coming days, representatives from across the world, developed and developing, will negotiate the difficult and tricky task of finding climate funding running into “trillions of dollars”. The goal is to combine contributions from rich/developed nations with financing from multilateral institutions and private investors.

The earlier $ 100 billion annual pledge from wealthy nations will expire soon. However, given that the target was rarely ever completely met, whether it is possible to achieve a much-higher goal to tackle the escalating costs of mitigation and adaptation only the final outcome will establish.

The fact is developed nations did not deliver on that promise until 2022. As it is, the 29th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) did not take off as smoothly as anticipated. There was a delay in adopting the agenda after China (on behalf of BASIC Group) requested for the inclusion of “climate change-related unilateral trade-restrictive measures” like CBAM in the agenda, calling it an unfair economic burden on developing nations under the pretext of climate action, according to reports. But the presiding country decided the issue would be discussed informally.

Divisions between developed and developing countries over such controversial climate-linked trade measures underline tensions between countries with different agendas and f viewpoints, said observers. Normally such delays are common only towards the end of such conferences, not on the first day, they added.

Pressure on rich nations

The High Ambition Coalition, an alliance of the world’ most climate-ambitious nations, has sought “trillions of dollars” for climate action, calling for reforming the international finance system, accelerating the transition from fossil fuels, adaptation action and much more.

According to its press statement, “every country must take forward adaptation efforts and have the means to do so, so that humanity and nature can be resilient and thrive together.

“Trillions of dollars are required. We must urgently increase the amount of financing for climate action. We must reflect the critical importance of grant-based and concessional finance, particularly for adaptation and to respond to loss and damage, while also putting in place the right conditions for green investments to thrive.

“Developed countries must continue to take the lead and live up to existing finance commitments. We also need to make innovative forms of finance a reality. Finance must be more accessible, with donors simplifying, harmonizing and speeding up procedures to approve and disburse funds. We must maintain and accelerate the progress made at COP28 in establishing the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, so that it can start meeting the urgent needs of affected countries and communities,” it said.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said biggest emitters, the countries, must lead and developed countries deliver on their promise to double adaptation finance, to ensure the Loss and Damage Fund has the resources it needs and to secure an ambitious new finance goal that mobilises the trillions of dollars developing countries need.

The HAC members said they are united in their commitment to the Paris Agreement, but if everyone is on board, that is the big question .

 The biggest of all—the US

COP29 is divided over its very basic goal—climate finance, say observers. The election of Donald Trump to the post of US President has created doubts about international commitments to climate finance and the future direction of US climate policy. The US is among major donors of climate finance.

Reassuring the world on US' commitment to climate change, John Podesta, senior advisor to the US President on international climate policy, said the President-elect can slow but not stop its climate change pledges. “…what I want to tell you today is that while the United States federal government, under Donald Trump, may put climate action on the back burner, the work to contain climate change is going to continue in the United States,” Podesta said.

He added that outgoing President Joe Biden’s climate legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) (which provides billions of dollars in subsidies for clean energy) would continue to drive investments in solar, wind, and other clean technologies. “I don’t think that any of that is reversible. Can it be slowed down? Maybe. But the direction is clear,” he said.

Trump, who had walked out of the Paris Agreement in his earlier tenure, said in his election speeches that he would withdraw from the Agreement, roll back parts of the IRA and increase fossil fuel production. "We will drill, baby, drill," Trump had said in a speech earlier this year, making clear his party’s stance on the fossil fuels and the oil industry. Given his views about climate change, the  question is will he agree to extra financial commitments for climate action.