With DMK-led alliance leading, real battle for 2nd spot in TN
WITH Tamil Nadu set to vote on April 19 in the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections, candidates and campaigners of political parties are braving the heat to win over voters. Elections in the state are often likened to a carnival, but this time, they have sparked a curious buzz. Alongside the usual contenders, the BJP is positioning itself as a formidable force. The party’s state chief, K Annamalai, who is contesting from the Coimbatore constituency, is hopeful that the party will secure more than 20 per cent of the votes.
Even as opinion polls predict an easy victory for the DMK-led ruling alliance, the real contest appears to be about securing the second place. However, even this perception could be a narrative crafted by the BJP. The AIADMK-led alliance and Tamil nationalist party Naam Thamizhar are also in the fray, making it a four-cornered contest.
The DMK has retained its alliance with the Left, the Congress, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, MDMK, and several smaller parties, while the AIADMK and the BJP parted ways in September last year. This rupture occurred after Annamalai allegedly made disparaging remarks about DMK founder CN Annadurai and AIADMK’s former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. When MG Ramachandran (MGR) chose to leave the DMK and establish his own party, he decided to name it after his mentor, Anna. Thus, Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam was born. The name was later changed to the AIADMK — All India (Anaithu Indhiya) Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. Given this legacy, the party could not afford to be indifferent to remarks that disparaged Anna. In response, the AIADMK demanded Annamalai’s replacement for the alliance to continue. However, with the BJP high command refusing to yield, the AIADMK ultimately walked out.
Following the split, both AIADMK and BJP made concerted efforts to build strong alliances. The AIADMK has aligned with DMDK (Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam), Puthiya Thamizhagam and SDPI (Social Democratic Party of India). On the other hand, the BJP has formed an alliance with Pattali Makkal Katchi, Tamil Maanila Congress, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (a splinter group of the AIADMK, formed by TTV Dhinakaran, nephew of VK Sasikala, who was a close associate of Jayalalithaa), and a few other parties. O Panneerselvam, another AIADMK dissident leader, will be contesting as an independent candidate backed by the BJP-led front.
Since the formation of these alliances, both fronts have been aggressively targeting each other, in addition to taking on the DMK-led front. Annamalai has claimed that the AIADMK will cease to exist after June 4 and that the party’s cadres will rally around Dhinakaran. In response, AIADMK leaders have issued sharp statements, with former Chief Minister and AIADMK general secretary Edappadi Palaniswami even advising Annamalai to mind his language.
While at the national level, this election is about the BJP’s bid to retain power, the focus in Tamil Nadu is on the tussle between the AIADMK and the BJP. “The perception that there is a fight for the second place between the AIADMK and the BJP is primarily due to the splintering within the former,” says AS Panneerselvan, the author of Karunanidhi: A Life. He explains: “There were two crucial transition points in the DMK. One was in 1969 after Annadurai’s death, when there was uncertainty about whether Nedunchezhiyan or Karunanidhi would lead the party. This was resolved within 15 days. The second was after Karunanidhi’s death, which again saw a smooth transition. In contrast, the AIADMK has had two painful transition points. One was after MGR’s death; it took almost two years to resolve the succession issue. The other was after Jayalalithaa’s death, and it’s unclear what the consolidation will be like.”
In the aftermath of Jayalalithaa’s death, Palaniswami, who successfully took control of the party, expelled three prominent leaders — Sasikala, Dhinakaran and Panneerselvam — from the AIADMK. The trio hails from the powerful Thevar community. Under Palaniswami’s leadership, there appears to have been a consolidation of support from the Gounder community, to which he belongs.
“There are doubts about Palaniswami’s leadership. No one knows how this is going to play out,” says Panneerselvan. “If there is a perception of a fight for the second place, it’s because of the AIADMK’s internal contradictions and infighting. The challenge for the AIADMK could possibly be how it is going to reinvent itself,” he adds.
Durai Karuna, a senior journalist who has extensively covered AIADMK affairs, acknowledges that the party may undergo consolidation in the event of an electoral setback, but he does not believe that the AIADMK will cease to exist, as Annamalai claims. According to him, the AIADMK’s organisational setup and cadre base — which the BJP cannot match — will stand it in good stead.
The BJP is indeed pulling out all the stops to step up its narrative and presence in Tamil Nadu. For now, the party is aiming to turn perception into reality, converting the buzz about it into votes through a variety of strategies. These include fielding prominent figures in the elections and having Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaign in the state over half a dozen times, besides other national leaders. Whether these strategies will be successful remains to be seen, and the answer will be revealed on June 4.
