What led to Hasina’s fall & flight

REGIONAL stability in South Asia saw a marked improvement after Sheikh Hasina assumed power in Bangladesh in January 2009. Her cooperation with New Delhi in addressing insurgent and terrorist threats in India’s northeastern states and the decisive action she took against Islamists in Bangladesh significantly enhanced the security situation in the region. Hasina’s uninterrupted 15-year rule was largely marked by peace and tranquillity, which, in turn, spurred economic development in Bangladesh and bolstered regional cooperation.

The Bangladeshi army is unlikely to remain at the helm for long, as it is a major beneficiary of UN peacekeeping operations.

Several long-standing issues between India and Bangladesh were amicably resolved during her tenure, facilitating increased sub-regional collaboration, particularly as the regional organisation SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) remained largely ineffective. However, the dramatic collapse of law and order on August 4, which led to Hasina’s ouster, can undermine these achievements and set back the progress made in both national and regional contexts.

The trigger for the deterioration in the security situation was the resurfacing of student protests, resulting in around 100 deaths and injuries to hundreds. The police used tear gas and rubber bullets on protesters demanding Hasina’s resignation. The government imposed an indefinite nationwide curfew and banned access to the Internet to quell the protests.

These demonstrations began in June, with student activists at Dhaka University agitating against a controversial quota system in government jobs that reserved 30 per cent of the positions for the family members of war veterans who had participated in the 1971 Liberation War. The protesters argued that the system was discriminatory and favoured Hasina’s Awami League party; they demanded a merit-based system instead. The quota system, established in 1972, was briefly abolished in 2018 but later reinstated. It was abolished once again after nearly 200 students were killed by the security forces in July. The protests paused for a while after the Supreme Court scrapped/slashed quotas but resumed over the demand for justice for those killed.

The stir evolved from being focused on the quota issue to a broader anti-government movement that witnessed the participation of people from diverse sections of society, including celebrities and garment manufacturers. Support for the protests also grew among former military figures, including ex-army chief Gen Iqbal Karim Bhuiyan, who turned his Facebook profile picture red as a gesture of solidarity. This was significant as a large number of former army officers in Bangladesh have backgrounds in the Pakistani army. There were also allegations that the protesters were being used by the Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami for their own political goals. Amid the unrest, the army intervened to restore order. Army chief Gen Waker-Uz-Zaman had first directed officers to ensure peace. However, as the situation threatened to spiral out of control, the army took an ambiguous stance.

On August 3, the army chief had addressed officers at the military headquarters in Dhaka, emphasising that “the Bangladesh army is the symbol of trust of the people.” He assured them that the army would stand by the people and the state in times of need, but he did not clarify if the army supported the protests.

Though the peace and tranquillity during Hasina’s rule brought economic prosperity to Bangladesh, she was accused of entrenching power by using state institutions and suppressing dissent. It was alleged that the Awami League, supposedly the people’s party, had lost touch with the populace. These clashes were among the deadliest in the country’s history of civil unrest. The Awami League attempted to use its student wing, the Bangladesh Chhatra League, against the protesters, forgetting that the student wing was not an auxiliary police force and should not attack fellow students. It was actually the forces aligned with the ruling party that initially caused the protests to degenerate into civil disorder.

The worsening situation in Bangladesh drew the attention of the United Nations (UN), which called for a cessation of violence, the release of detainees, the restoration of access to the Internet and a meaningful dialogue. India, concerned about the situation but limited in its ability to intervene as it is an internal matter of Bangladesh, has advised its nationals to avoid travel within that country. New Delhi is also worried about the spillover of the unrest in Bangladesh, particularly in the states bordering the neighbouring country.

The crisis has brought to the forefront the cumulative grievances of the citizens: rising prices of daily necessities, the pernicious influence of syndicates and unchecked corruption permeating almost every branch of the government. The people were also frustrated with the government’s determination to suppress political opposition.

The Bangladeshi economy has faced significant challenges of late, particularly a crisis of foreign currency. While the economy was performing well, citizens paid less attention to the democratic political space available to them. However, as the economic situation began to deteriorate, concerns over jobs, employment and political freedom became increasingly important. The Hasina government exacerbated the crisis by mishandling the student protest movement, treating the agitators as political adversaries. The army chief announced that an interim government would take charge, promising that the military would stand down and investigate the deadly crackdown on protesters.

The Bangladeshi army is unlikely to remain at the helm for long, as it is a major beneficiary of the UN peacekeeping operations, and the UN does not encourage such an arrangement. As seen during the time of the caretaker government in 2007, the army prefers backseat driving, similar to the situation in Pakistan. However, for India, the bilateral relations will now depend on the new regime that emerges once the dust raised by the protests settles.