US voters quest for ‘change’

ABOUT 400 years ago, a band of 104 pilgrims set foot at Plymouth in Boston in an attempt to ‘change’ their lives and seek a new future. In the process, they evolved into a country — the United States of America — which eventually became the most powerful economy in the world and arguably the most robust democracy. The people of that democracy once again seek ‘change’ as they prepare to vote in a few days from now.

The swing factor could be influenced by occasional voters — not only those who are undecided but also those who generally don’t vote.

On display in the democratic marketplace are two products; the one tried and tested, the other on trial and yet to be tested. There are billboards exhorting people to vote in a democracy that doesn’t boast of a very high percentage of voting. The polling percentage in 2020 was around 66 per cent; it steadily climbed from 58.6 per cent in 2012 to 60 per cent in 2016. Although a little higher at 61.6 per cent in 2008, it has generally been below 60 per cent for the last four decades. With about 100 countries representing half the world’s population going to the polls in 2024, the US would, perhaps, be the last major country democratically electing its head of government in an era where democracy itself faces serious challenges globally.

What is the ‘change’ that people in the US seek? What are the issues concerning the voter? What does it forebode for democracy?

The sense that one gets is that people are undecided as yet about who is capable of bringing about ‘change’ as Trump and Harris are locked in a bitter battle. According to opinion polls, immigration and the southern border are the top issues for the voters. Trump seems to be persuading workers to vote as they form a large part of his support base. He is hoping to count on their support amidst the overwhelming feeling that household wealth for college graduates has increased by 95 per cent since 1989, while remaining stagnant for non-college graduates.

The average household wealth index, when plotted from 1989, shows a disturbing trend of an increasing gap between those who have gone to college and those with a high school background or none. The average real wealth by education, as of 2021, for those with a college background was $18,32,000 in comparison to $4,52,000 with a high school background and $1,85,000 with no high school education.

Although the official data doesn’t talk of an alarming level of unemployment, it is generally felt that the infusion of artificial intelligence in all spheres of business has created redundancies, causing retrenchment and layoffs. The unemployment rate in September 2024 was 4.10 per cent, marginally lower than the 4.20 per cent of the previous month but higher than the 3.80 per cent of September 2023. The long-term average unemployment rate is around 5.69 per cent as per the Bureau of Labour Statistics. This economic issue of the widening income gap and unemployment has inexorably got mixed with the political issue of immigration, which has polarised Americans.

Harris, on the other hand, is banking on the support of the large chunk of the immigrant population and women voters, besides traditional Democrat voters. Data indicates that the percentage of women voting far exceeds that of men, with almost a 10 per cent gap between the two.

Reproductive healthcare has been an issue of major concern for women, especially after the US Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion by a 6-3 verdict in its decision in June 2022 in the Dobbs vs Jackson Women’s Health Organization case, setting aside the right recognised by the landmark verdict in Roe vs Wade (1973) and Planned Parenthood vs Casey (1992). Even as women have outnumbered men in voting, the million-dollar question is whether a country that swears by equal opportunity and liberal thinking is ready for a woman President.

According to poll watchers, the swing factor could be influenced by occasional voters — not only those who are undecided but also those who generally don’t vote. Recent polls show that while Harris’ supporters are high on enthusiasm as compared to Trump’s, the latter outdo the former in their belief that their candidate is more capable to deal with the economic issues facing the country, including inflation. It is a strange irony that the working-class population has found a champion in Trump, an unabashed capitalist. An expert at the Harvard Kennedy School left me with the impression that while voters don’t want to vote for Trump, they are not yet convinced about Harris’ ability to bring about the ‘change’ they are looking for. There is also a feeling that while Harris is not doing enough work in the field, Trump is seen as a ‘happy warrior’.

Amid this cliffhanger, the one depressing feature is the dilution of decency in public discourse, that has a striking similarity with the Indian election campaigning. The frequent use of coarse language, making unsubstantiated statements and hurling disparaging abuses have become par for the course. While such instances in India are behind us, it is depressing to see Harris being called ‘mentally impaired’ and ‘mentally disabled’.

Trump was particularly harsh against illegal immigrants, calling them ‘monsters’, ‘stone-cold killers’ and ‘vile animals’ and accusing some migrants of wanting to “rape, pillage, thieve, plunder and kill the people of the United States of America”. JD Vance, Trump’s vice-presidential pick, has been criticised for his comments about “childless cat ladies” running the world. Harris has faced racist and misogynistic attacks, being called a ‘DEI hire’ (a disparaging term that refers to quotas or targets for hiring racial and ethnic minorities, women and people with disabilities for positions of authority and/or power). Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, has been accused of stolen valour due to his military record being challenged. Trump has been rather liberal with profanities during his campaign speeches, including using terms like ‘loser’, ‘jerks’ and ‘morons’.

Here, too, people feel that the use of abusive language in politics contributes to a toxic political climate and is deleterious to democratic traditions, with or without a model code. There is also a view that the US poll, like elections in other countries this year, is an ‘issueless’ election, which means that democracy itself is undergoing a stress test.

The author is a former Election Commissioner of India