Ukraine crisis tilting balance of global power

RUSSIA’S ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine, now two weeks old, is taking a heavy toll in terms of human casualties and suffering with the destruction of several cities and displacement of more than 1.3 million people. Due to their eight years of combat experience and knowledge of the local terrain, the Ukrainians have put up an impressive fight. The Russians have had difficulties in fighting in deeper areas, maintaining supply lines, dominating the sky and blocking Ukraine’s supply routes from the West.

Russia is now resorting to heavy bombardment to force Ukraine’s capitulation as it has refused to accept her terms, mainly a neutral status, ‘demilitarisation and denazification’ (change of regime) and Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea.

Despite its strong resistance so far, the Ukrainian army is unlikely to prevent the advance of the superior Russian army for long. While the USA and NATO countries have refused to join the war, they are providing steady support to Ukraine through the supply of weapons, training, fuel and money and hitting Russia with waves of sanctions.

Some scholars have called this war as a continuing clash between Russia’s desire for the consolidation of its empire and Ukrainian nationalism and separatism, stretching back three centuries. The Ukrainians now firmly reject any identification with Russia and want a closer association with Europe and other western organisations.

There are doubts whether either side will achieve its desired objectives through this war. The more likely scenario is of Russia capturing some parts of the country, setting up a new regime and the Ukrainians mounting a prolonged insurgency with the support of the West.

Russia’s invasion has reinvigorated the moribund NATO and rallied the European countries against Moscow, prompting even bystanders like Germany to increase its defence spending. Even historically neutral countries such as Finland, Sweden and Switzerland are now taking a tougher stance against Moscow. Ukraine’s application for membership of the European Union (EU) was approved with an overwhelming majority by the European Parliament. If Ukraine eventually gets the EU membership, a western democracy would come next door, challenging Putin’s Russia, a scenario he would abhor.

Russia has been hit by a large number of sanctions by the West against its major banks, including its expulsion from SWIFT (biggest financial network to facilitate payments among 200 countries), import of dual use technologies, denial of certification to the Nord stream 2 pipeline for the export of gas to Europe, sanctions on President Putin, several oligarchs and parliamentarians and closure of the airspace of several countries to Russian flights.

Russia’s oil and gas sectors, which account for 50 per cent of its foreign trade and 40 per cent of its fiscal revenues and some banks, remain outside the scope of these sanctions. Also, some of Russia’s foreign reserves are held in the Chinese yuan and gold. The last time the West put sanctions on Russia for its takeover of Crimea in 2014, its average economic growth declined to less than 1 per cent from 2015-20; wider sanctions this time will hit its economy harder.

The USA is working on imposing an ‘iron curtain’ on Russia by declining access to new investments and technologies, constricting trade, encouraging western companies to leave and isolating her globally. Ukraine has become a battleground for a sustained USA-Russia rivalry as the USA would not like to see Russia (and China) succeed in challenging its global supremacy and security architecture.

China has balanced its support to Russia, declining to term its military action as ‘invasion’. It has also conveyed its concern for “respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine.” It has dangled the carrot of collaborating with the USA, including joining the G-7 Build Back Better World, and her own Belt and Road initiatives, if the latter abandons its ‘competitive-collaborative-adversarial’ approach and respects China’s core interests, including dropping its support for Taiwan’s independence.

While China will continue to buy Russian oil, gas, wheat and other items as these are in its own interests, it would not provide unlimited support to Russia as that could disrupt its economic ties with the West. China’s prime interest will be to safeguard its economy from the adverse impact of sanctions. A weak and pliant Russia suits China fine in responding against the USA and containing a rising India.

The conflict has complicated India’s position. India has to be mindful of its traditional military dependence on Russia when China has amassed 50,000 troops with high-tech weaponry on its northern borders. It also needs the political support of the USA, France, Japan and others, much more than in the past, for getting foreign investment, emerging technologies and new generations of weapon systems to resist China’s aggression in its neighbourhood. An important concern for India is if an attenuated Russia emerging from this war would be able to resist China’s pressures in the future against the supply of new generations of weaponry to India, such as the S-400 air defence system and others.

In recent years, India’s strategic dependence on the USA and its allies is growing (e.g., purchases of new weapons systems and emerging technologies) and that on Russia declining. These countries dominate the present international order, including the global financial system. During the faceoff between Indian and Chinese troops in Ladakh in May-June 2020, the USA provided useful political, intelligence and military support to India; closer ties with the USA has been an important countervailing factor to resist China’s hegemony.

The Modi government has shown the necessary dexterity in balancing our interests with India’s traditional and new strategic partners and asking the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine to talk directly to resolve this conflict.

As the war progresses, India will have to be more mindful of the shifting balance of global power, new equations emerging among major powers and our increasing dependence on the USA and its allies and juggle its position carefully to secure our long-term interests and play a positive role in resolving the Ukraine conflict.