Trump’s conviction thickens the plot

THE United States appeared even more divided following the conviction of former President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump on 34 counts of falsifying business records. By itself, the case was a minor one, but the Trump team’s decision to contest it in the manner it did — by deriding the process, attacking the prosecutors and even the judge — made it toxic.

India’s ties with Trump were fine, but they lacked the systematic effort that has been put into building the bilateral relationship in the past three years.

Trump will now appeal, but this will take months, if not years, to be processed. If he loses and the case is overturned later, it will confirm the views of his supporters that the US judicial system is broken. On the other hand, if he wins despite everything, it will reveal just what a bad state that system is in.

Trump has trashed the judicial process and said “we’re living in a fascist state.” The trial of “a very innocent man”, as Trump described himself, is being described as a sham and he is being characterised as a ‘political prisoner’. His party has warned that the US is entering a phase where all its opponents could also find themselves facing indictments when the opportunity arises.

The verdict has introduced a volatile and dramatic element into what was indeed a strange race between two candidates who have not been particularly popular among the voters. In old America, a conviction of a candidate would have put paid to his or her chances. But this is Trump’s America and things are panning out differently. The verdict has actually strengthened the Republican Party support for him, manifested by the $52.8 million or so his campaign received immediately after the verdict.

The Democrats are celebrating the conviction of the man who is their opponent and currently the frontrunner. President Biden has been careful in commenting on the issue, but he has defended the judicial system and declared it is “reckless… dangerous and irresponsible” for anyone to question the verdict because they don’t like it.

This was no sham trial, even if the issues were somewhat trivial. The evidence presented established the crimes committed and also gave us a glimpse of the sleazy world Trump lives in. Whatever his supporters may say, he was judged by a jury of his peers who unanimously and fairly quickly convicted him on all 34 counts. And this is only one of the charges he confronts; there are three more serious ones. But in the minds of the Republicans, the cases are an outcome of “weaponising of the judicial system”.

Two of the cases relate to his role in subverting the 2020 elections and the third says that he deliberately withheld classified documents after he left the White House. The New York verdict showed that while a part of the US legal system is still working, the partisanship of the other parts, including the US Supreme Court, has ensured that the other cases will not be tried before the elections. The only ‘court’ that matters now is the polling booth.

Trump has a fanatical voter base, which has been galvanised by the verdict, but it alone cannot win him the election. He needs the support of people who are less fervent and could be possibly put off by the conviction. Indeed, the trial itself has underlined Trump’s weakness — his erratic behaviour, his scandals and vulgarity.

A YouGov poll conducted immediately after the verdict found that while 27 per cent said they were less likely to vote for Trump, 26 per cent said they were more likely to do so, while 39 per cent said the verdict would not affect the way they voted. However, the manner in which the election is shaping up, even small shifts in support could make a difference.

These are grim signs of the depth of decay of the US political system, which is totally divided. With one half of the country not willing to tolerate the views of the other, we may well see a large number of Americans vote for third parties, or even stay away from the polls.

It should be clear by now that Trump is totally unfit for office. Yet, if he is re-elected, there will be enormous consequences, not just for his country, but also the world, and, of course, India. With the world being buffeted by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and in danger of one in Taiwan, the leadership role of the US is very significant. For India, which confronts China, the American partnership is important for our security.

Under President Biden, the US has enormously strengthened its Indo-Pacific posture by firming up alliances not only with South Korea and Japan, but also with the Philippines and India. In north-east Asia, he has importantly built up a trilateral relationship involving the US, Japan and South Korea. Under Trump, the relationship between the US and these two countries was under severe strain.

Importantly, he has also taken the initiative to create the AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) military alliance, which is distinct from the Quad initiative of which India is a member and which now focuses mainly on health security, supply chain resiliency, climate change, critical and emerging technology, cybersecurity, maritime security and so on.

In June 2023, Biden joined PM Narendra Modi in a major elevation of the US-India defence and security relationship at the other end of the Indo-Pacific. India’s ties with Trump were fine, but they lacked the systematic effort that has been put into building the bilateral relationship in the past three years.