Taiwan a flashpoint in growing US-China rivalry

China reacted sharply to the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan (August 2) by launching live fire combat joint exercises in the waters and airspace across the median line at six areas around Taiwan’s perimeter with participation of 41 Chinese naval vessels and 110 aircraft. Eleven ballistic missiles and drones were fired some of which flew over Taiwan and some landed in the exclusive economic zone of Japan. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force fired 11 Dongfeng medium-range missiles to showcase China’s capabilities.

Several meetings between the Chinese and American defence ministries, militaries and talks on maritime safety, repatriation of illegal immigrants, cross-border crime, narcotics and climate change were suspended. China summoned the envoys of G-7 countries to protest at their Foreign Ministers statement asking it “not to unilaterally change the status quo by force in the region”. Chinese Foreign Minister (FM) Wang Yi staged two walkouts at an ASEAN FMs gathering in Cambodia to register Beijing’s anger at criticism of its military drills.

If China’s intent was to deter the US politicians from visiting Taiwan, its actions achieved the opposite result. Pelosi’s visit was followed in less than two weeks by another group of the US Congressmen led by Senator Ed Markey and Eric Holcomb, the Governor of the US state of Indiana making it clear that the USA would now provide stronger support to Taiwan. A Bill now moving in the US Congress would designate Taiwan as a “major non-NATO ally” and commit the USA to securing increased participation of Taiwan in the international organisations.

The USA announced on August 17 that it and Taiwan would start by September 2022 negotiations for a new trade and investment pact covering trade facilitation, regulatory practices, remove trade barriers, improve labour and environmental standards. Beijing fumed asking the USA not to confer any trappings of a sovereign state on Taiwan.

Even amongst countries of Europe and Asia, there were growing concerns at the Chinese over-reaction against Taiwan. A Lithuanian delegation led by its Vice Minister for Transport and Communications Agne Vaiciukeviciute visited Taiwan immediately after Pelosi’s visit in defiance of Beijing. Some German parliamentary members intend to visit Taiwan in October 2022 and a Trade Committee of the European Parliament in December 2022 to convey their support to Taiwan and rejecting Beijing’s moves to veto the foreign policy of other countries.

An Indian official spokesman called for “avoidance of unilateral actions to change the status quo” after China mounted its aggressive military drills around Taiwan and urged “the exercise of restraint, de-escalation of tensions, maintenance of peace and stability in the region”. He avoided any comments on Beijing’s request for support to its One China policy.

In recent months, China’s President Xi Jinping has upped the ante for Taiwan’s unification with China calling it a “historic mission and an unshakable commitment of the Communist Party of China” (CPC). China’s claims to sovereignty over Taiwan are now contested given that Communist China has never ruled Taiwan. China itself has not respected the signed agreements with India on maintenance of peace and stability on the borders and with Britain on democratic freedoms and rights of the people of Hong Kong. There is no international acceptance for China’s military intervention to annex Taiwan, which would destabilise the entire East Asia including the Taiwan Strait — a vital artery for global trade. The USA and other countries reject China’s new claims to exclusive jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait given its past illegal colonisation of the South China Sea.

A recent war game at a Washington think-tank demonstrated that a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan would be catastrophic but the USA and its allies would be able to conduct a successful defence of Taiwan. The USA, Japan and China would suffer horrific losses in ships, aircraft and personnel. According to a recent RAND Corporation study, one year of fighting would reduce America’s GDP by 5 to 10% and China’s by 25 to 35% with certainty of a global depression. A full-scale invasion of Taiwan would require China to land hundreds of thousands of stroops across the turbulent Taiwan Strait which could be resisted by the USA and its allies by mining those channels and cutting off the communications of the invading forces.

Some people in China believe that by 2027, it would have enough military capabilities to deter the US forces and forcibly occupy Taiwan. This is by no means certain. USA, Japan, Australia, India and other countries have launched rapid military modernisation, including acquisition of long-range bombers, aircraft carriers, destroyers, submarines, hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, space-based and other weapons. President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan has rejected unification with China and has said that Taiwan would continue to work with the USA and other democratic countries to “defend against interference by authoritarian states”. Taiwan will now expedite stocking of mobile missile launchers, mines, radars and other smart weaponry to boost its defences.

The Biden administration is proactively working to alter the strategic environment around China to force a change in its policies. With the help of Quad, AUKUS, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and military exchanges with the ASEAN, it is trying to isolate China and push back its aggressive and expansionary activities. China’s hostile activities against Taiwan and other neighbours would draw these countries closer to the USA. The US navy has augmented its freedom of navigation visits to the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

The PLA will be operating with greater frequency and ferocity against Taiwan after Xi’s third presidential term. The best way to avoid a looming war over Taiwan is to convince Beijing that its military intervention would entail heavy economic and military costs and not succeed. The maintenance of status quo over Taiwan offers the best hope for avoidance of war, which would be long and catastrophic with unforeseen consequences for China, USA, Japan and the world.