Sri Lanka’s once-Marxist president on 1st India trip

Unlike Nepalese PM Oli, who was not invited by India and visited China instead, Sri Lankan President Aruna Kumara Dissanayake, popularly called AKD and once a Marxist, has chosen to come to India first (December 15 to 17) before going to China next month. Which country – India or China – will a newly elected leader in India’s neighbourhood visit first has become a competitive affair.

That it would be India first was determined by geography; Delhi’s emergency assistance of $4 billion when others, including China, turned away during Sri Lanka’s worst economic crisis since its independence; and Foreign Minister Jaishankar being the first to invite him.

Conflicted by having to choose, Colombo is calling both visits as economic investment-related, though these will be largely exploratory and about getting to know one another’s interests and concerns. India is receiving a largely unknown leader from a fringe party, not the traditional United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP).

AKD is the leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna/National People’s Power (JVP/NPP): the JVP having spearheaded two insurrections, both of which Delhi helped Colombo to defeat.

The JVP, representing Sinhala nationalism, was opposed to the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord, Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) and 13A devolution to Tamils. The triumph of AKD and NPP came in the aftermath of the people’s uprising following the sovereign default of June 2021, in which the fiercely loyal to the Rajapaksa’s Sri Lankan Army did not intervene to keep the clan in power.

Not many Lankans had heard of AKD, but most knew about JVP. Still, AKD and the NPP won historic victories in presidential and parliamentary elections in September and November, ending the rule of the two parties and five families.

For the first time, a Tamil party did not win its stronghold, Jaffna. Instead, it was the NPP, which lost only Batticaloa among the country’s 25 districts. The NPP, which had just three seats, catapulted to 159 members in a 225-seat parliament.

The small new cabinet includes two upcountry Tamils, none from the north and no Muslims. Only two have been ministers earlier. Lacking experience, the government will rely heavily on the bureaucracy.

AKD has promised to root out corruption and review the existing contracts (including Adani’s), release land occupied by the army, address concerns of the minorities, including reconciliation and issues with the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), and maintain neutrality between India and China.

Till recently, government ministers would say that for security, Sri Lanka would look to India and for economy, rely on China. This was turned on its head during the economic meltdown.

After the fourth tranche of the $2.9-billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan, AKD decided not to renegotiate with the IMF to reduce hardships faced by the people. Following a debt restructuring agreement, the budget will be presented on February 17, 2025.

Bringing the economy back on track is AKD’s biggest challenge. Another challenge is to replace the 1978 constitution with a new one, which most executive presidents had pledged to do, but wavered.

A prominent visitor to Colombo was US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu, who promised “unwavering support for the government’s anti-corruption drive” and help recover funds taken from the country.

The Verite Research think tank is conducting a study on detecting corruption in procurement processes which will come in handy. During the people’s uprising, “corruption at the very top” was at the heart of the ouster of former President Gotabhaya Rajapaksa.

In India’s neighbourhood now, there is a third player: the US. No longer does Washington say India is in the lead, we will follow. Instead, it says it also has its own interests.

Sri Lanka sits astride key sea trade routes in the Indian Ocean, with the dominant Hambantota Port with China on a 99-year lease.

On his visit to India, AKD is accompanied by Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath and Deputy Finance Minister Anil Fernando. He will meet President Droupadi Murmu and hold bilateral discussions with PM Narendra Modi and other dignitaries.

He will participate in a business event for promoting investment and commercial linkages between India and Sri Lanka and later travel to Bodh Gaya, a ritual for all Buddhists.

When AKD met India’s Minister for External Affairs Jaishankar on October 4 in Colombo, he had told him: “Sri Lankan territory will never be allowed to be used in a manner inimical to India’s security interests.”

In his meeting with Modi, both leaders are likely to place their cards on the table and seek their visions about their future on bilateral relations – development projects related to connectivity and energy are expected to be reviewed.

The fate of the controversial Adani wind power project at Mannar will also likely be discussed, as AKD had said the Adani project ‘would be reconsidered’ due to lack of transparency.

Gotabhaya Rajapaksa was accused of favouring Adani following his meeting with Modi at the COP meeting in Glasgow, over which the Ceylon Electricity Board Chairman had resigned. He will assure Modi that the JVP/NPP is a changed party and no longer harbours anti-India sentiment.

Delhi’s other interests relate to a Free Trade Agreement, progress of development projects in the north, security and stability in the Indian Ocean Region and the perennial: full implementation of 13A, which, over time, was diluted to ‘meeting Tamil aspirations.’ In no joint communique was the Tamil issue absent.

Colombo will seek assistance in maintaining economic growth and stability through investment. It will reiterate its assurances on Delhi’s security imperatives.

Its Minister for Fisheries Ramalingam Chandrashekhar, an upcountry Tamil, said last week that bottom trawling by Indian fishermen must stop, reviving the unending fisheries conflict in the Palk Bay, over which a joint working group was established in 2016. This process will be re-energised.

Sri Lanka holds India’s critical southern frontier. The Chinese dominance in the north, along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), has to be neutralised in the Indian Ocean by making China’s Malacca dilemma a reality, with some help from Sri Lanka.

(The writer is a military commentator)