Current climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius

Current national climate plans of countries would cumulatively reduce global emissions by only 2.6 per cent by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, leaving a large gap in efforts to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, according to a new UN report.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN body that evaluates climate science, said global emissions need to be reduced by 43 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035 to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The new UN report synthesises information from the 168 latest national climate plans communicated by 195 parties to the Paris Agreement, recorded in the registry of nationally determined contributions as of September 9, 2024.

Total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (excluding land use, land-use change and forestry, or LULUCF), factoring in the latest NDCs, would be around 51.5 (48.3–54.7) gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030.

“These would be 49.8 per cent higher than in 1990, 8.3 per cent higher than in 2010, and 2.6 per cent lower than in 2019, and 2.8 per cent lower than the estimated level for 2025, indicating the possibility of global emissions peaking before 2030,” the report said.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell said the report’s findings are stark but not surprising. “Current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country.”

He said the next round of national climate plans—which countries need to submit by February 2025 -- must deliver a dramatic increase in climate action and ambition.

“While these plans are not one-size-fits-all and are nationally determined, they must have ambitious new emissions targets that are economy-wide, covering all greenhouse gases, keeping 1.5 degrees alive. They must be broken down into sectors and gases. And they must be credible, backed up by substantive regulations, laws, and funding to ensure goals are met and plans implemented,” he said.

At this year’s UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November, countries are required to reach an agreement on new climate finance that developed countries need to provide developing countries, starting in 2025, to fight and adapt to climate change.

Developing and poorer countries see an ambitious new climate finance goal as crucial to increase ambition. They argue that expecting them to do more, especially when many are still struggling with poverty and inadequate infrastructure amid worsening climate impacts, undermines the principle of equity.

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adopted in 1992, high-income, industrialised nations (referred to as Annex II countries) -- who have historically benefited from industrialisation and contributed the most to greenhouse gas emissions—are responsible for providing finance and technology to help developing countries combat and adapt to climate change.

These countries include the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and EU member states such as Germany and France.