Russia, China keen on rapid BRICS expansion to counter West
AMID Russia’s chairmanship of BRICS, Beijing and Moscow are making efforts to rapidly expand the grouping and gain traction for the organisation to challenge Western domination. They aim to position BRICS as an upholder of the values of the Global South.
BRICS has traditionally tried to find better economic avenues not dependent on the West. It is also an important effort for a multipolar world.
As many as 33 countries are waiting to join BRICS. This is a huge number. Since 2010, when South Africa joined BRICS, it remained a club of five countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In 2023, during the South African chairmanship, six countries were invited to join the bloc: Argentina, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Argentina withdrew, while Saudi Arabia has not ratified its membership. The criteria-based approach was ignored in this rush.
Among Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE and Egypt, there is a mix of pro- and anti-Western countries. But the dominant theme is how to join another pole in the emerging international order and seek greater economic opportunities for themselves.
Indonesia’s reluctance to join the first expansion has left a gap in BRICS because no Southeast Asian country is a member so far. Indonesia, which was then the chair of ASEAN and had successfully helmed the G20 in 2022, was seen as an ideal partner. But it demurred. One reason was that it did not want to be a party to the international contestation between the US and China, assuming that it saw BRICS as a China-led grouping. Economically, Indonesia placed its bets on its application for the membership of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development). Hence, it did not find BRICS equally attractive.
Currently, there are three ASEAN countries seeking BRICS membership — Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia. Public pronouncements by their leadership have varied. Thailand and Malaysia are more public about their efforts, while Vietnam, which recently hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin, has been discreet. Other applicants include Venezuela, Senegal, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Bahrain and Pakistan.
Why this eagerness of ASEAN countries to join BRICS? They are not taking an ASEAN position on BRICS. Indonesia perhaps thought there should be an ASEAN point of view on BRICS before ASEAN members sought to join. On international issues like the Ukraine war and the Gaza crisis, there is minimal, if any, common ASEAN view. Various ASEAN countries see BRICS as having political and economic influence, which has been significantly higher since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis. Russia, China and India offer economic opportunities for trade and investment, which several applicants for BRICS membership think could benefit them.
Thailand and Malaysia view their applications as a Global South initiative to seek a more determined international order where they could have a bigger voice. They seek to leverage South-South cooperation, play a more proactive role through BRICS and participate in a more balanced international order. Prioritising multilateralism, strengthening the role of the countries of the South and enhancing economic opportunities are the main reasons cited.
Within Thailand and Malaysia, however, there are voices that challenge their governments’ inclination towards BRICS. They aver that ASEAN has traditionally maintained its strategic autonomy, which, in real terms, has come to mean close economic engagement with China and a security understanding with the US-led Western bloc. The discomfort that ASEAN countries had with Quad has diminished, but that this would lead to a rush to join BRICS was unanticipated.
It is not as if Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand have had similar voting patterns on the Ukraine crisis in the UN. They voted separately. Now, they are keen on BRICS membership, even though Russia and Iran are under US sanctions and China leads the anti-Western bloc.
When these countries’ push for membership is challenged domestically on the grounds of strategic autonomy, they revert to citing economic opportunities. However, this does not hold much water because Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand are closely aligned with China in economic terms. For several years, Beijing has been their largest trading partner, and they are benefiting from the Belt and Road Initiative. They are all members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, from which India withdrew in 2019. Yet, they are all members of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, which is led by Quad countries. Vietnam is also a member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, with several members from the Asia-Pacific; both China and Taiwan are among the applicants.
The changing of the guard in Indonesia will take place in October, when Gen Prabowo Subianto will take over the presidency from Joko Widodo. This is likely to see a shift in the Indonesian position as well. Indonesia may not be able to enter the BRICS fray in time for the summit in Russia in October, when Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand will be considered, but it could very well be a subsequent applicant. Prabowo has a geopolitical sense of foreign policy and is unlikely to feel the constraints that Widodo felt, even when Indonesia was a natural contender to join BRICS during the expansion in 2023.
Overall, the entry of ASEAN nations into BRICS will improve its geographical coverage and bring countries in the ambit of India’s Act East Policy into the grouping. India should have no difficulty in supporting Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand for their entry into BRICS and Indonesia whenever it seeks to join. India has close ties with these countries. And the economic and political expansion of relations with them remains a keystone of India’s Act East Policy. They are all friends of India and could benefit by balancing the composition of BRICS. However, all of them are close economic partners of China, whose heft with their inclusion into BRICS would be clearly felt. India has been comfortable with the new members who have had good relations with it but prosperous economic partnerships with China.
Of the 33 current applicants, perhaps five to 10 that are acceptable to the others will be approved. ASEAN countries, with their wider reach and support from China, Russia and India, would perhaps find it easier to enter BRICS at this stage.
