Return to RJD fold will test Nitish’s acumen
Recent political movements — more precisely operations — have impacted national politics because the epicentres are Maharashtra and Bihar, two of the five electorally high-yield states that potentially shape the course the country traverses closer to 2024. Maharashtra brings 48 seats to the Lok Sabha and Bihar, 40. The other big league states are Uttar Pradesh (80 seats), West Bengal (42 seats) and Tamil Nadu (39). The BJP-helmed coalition, the NDA, did remarkably well in Bihar and Maharashtra in the 2019 parliamentary polls and decimated the Opposition.
With a difference! In Maharashtra, where the NDA won 41 seats, the BJP was in alliance with the Shiv Sena, led by Uddhav Thackeray. Bihar brought a bounty to the BJP. The NDA won 39 of the 40 seats, but not on the BJP’s terms. Here too, it had the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) as partners, the result being that the JD(U), led by Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister, was just one seat behind the BJP.
Look at the developments post the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra and Bihar which offer a mixed bag to the BJP. After the 2019 assembly elections, Uddhav Thackeray snapped ties with the BJP and took the help of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress to install himself as the CM — a post the BJP was unwilling to yield. This year, the “secular” Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government was toppled when a large faction of the Sena ditched Uddhav and struck a deal with the BJP to form a government, headed by the Sena’s rebel leader Eknath Shinde. With these manoeuvres, the BJP felled an opponent in the crucial western state and raised the stakes for itself before the Lok Sabha polls. It seems unlikely that the tattered MVA will hang together and take on the BJP and the breakaway Sena.
On the other hand, Bihar will not be a cinch. Last week, Nitish’s JD(U) did a Maharashtra-like coup that apparently caught the BJP off-guard. Except that the feat was pulled off without leaving a mess. There was no resort politics, no allegations of money change and quid pro quo and more importantly, no effort to split the Opposition. Nitish returned to the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), comprising Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, CPI (M), CPI, the CPI (M-L) and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM). The entire Opposition, disparate as its politics are, coalesced into an anti-BJP front with Nitish as the spearhead.
The MGB represents a formidable social coalition of the major backward castes such as the Yadavs and Kurmis, the more backward castes and the extremely backward castes. The CPI (M-L) and HAM bring in the Dalit votes while unlike in the 2020 state elections — when the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) took away a chunk of the minority votes — this time the MGB presents a clear-cut option. Provided it hangs together before the Lok Sabha and the next assembly election.
Unlike its neighbour Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP amalgamated the upper castes, backward castes and Dalits by creating a “Hindutva” identity, Bihar is not yet swamped by communalism. Nitish’s somersault doubtless left the opposition space wide open to the BJP which will use Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s persona and use the arrows in its quiver to confront the MGB. Memories of the RJD’s “jungle raj”, its alleged corruption and a “secular gang-up” against Hindus will form the components of the BJP’s offensive. At the end of the day, caste dynamics and social equations constitute the fulcrum of Bihar politics in an election. The BJP has its task cut out because right now sans the JD(U) and HAM and saddled with a truncated LJP, it can only count on the support of the upper castes which does not add substantively.
What does Nitish’s ricochet to the MGB presage for the Opposition and national politics? For one, he cannot afford to do another back flip before 2024, even if he senses that the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are on a high. Tactically, the BJP has not hit out as hard on Nitish as on Uddhav because it wants to keep a door open for his return. The BJP needs a strong backward caste leader to collaborate before the Lok Sabha polls. A senior leader I spoke to wondered what was there for Nitish to gain in the MGB when the RJD would harvest the benefits. It seemed as though the BJP could stoke Nitish’s apprehensions of being reduced to an RJD underling.
Second, the JD(U) exists as the RJD’s junior partner. The RJD has a larger social base. Doubtless, after his incarceration and health setbacks, the party patriarch Lalu Prasad seemed considerably chastened. It is believed he counselled his son and the deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav to be appropriately deferential to Nitish and keep the government going. However, Lalu is crucial if Nitish is to realise his national aspirations. The first test will lie in the distribution of Lok Sabha seats and if the JD(U) gets a larger share than the RJD.
The Opposition has already thrown up two ambitious leaders with their gaze set on Delhi: Mamata Banerjee and K Chandrasekhar Rao, the West Bengal and Telangana CMs. Both face problems at home. Mamata is dogged by the noose thrown around the necks of her colleagues by Central agencies in hot pursuit of corruption charges. Rao has a pro-active BJP to contend with.
Nitish has enough challenges. The leader, known as “Sushasan Babu” (man of good governance), will have to consolidate his position and deliver on promises before he transforms into a pan Indian leader. It’s a long haul for Nitish.
