Reading tea leaves of Biden’s China policy

Former Ambassador

US President Joe Biden’s telephone conversation with China’s President Xi Jinping on February 10, according to the US media reports, was “a sharp confrontation in a polite and civil manner”. While Xi spoke in a conciliatory tone underlining the importance of a healthy bilateral relationship, Biden raised “fundamental concerns” about China’s coercive and unfair economic practices, the crackdown in Hong Kong, human rights abuses in Xinjiang and its assertive actions in the region, including Taiwan.

The two leaders also exchanged views on preventing proliferation of nuclear weapons (reference to seeking China’s cooperation in

constricting North Korea’s and Iran’s nuclear weapon programmes) and cooperation on climate change and global pandemics.

China had been eager to start a dialogue with the Biden administration early on to repair the bilateral ties, which had reached its lowest point during the Trump administration. Xi Jinping had thought of sending his Politburo member and senior diplomat, Yang Jiechi to Washington to interact with Biden’s team, but the latter’s response was cold as President Biden first wanted to consult the US allies and partners.

In his statement at the Department of State earlier, Biden had warned that while “we need not have a conflict with China, there would be extreme competition”. The competition, it was elaborated, would be comprehensive to ramp up all round pressure on Beijing. The Biden administration would hold China to account for its political persecution and human rights abuses; on the economic side, it would escalate pressure on Beijing to reform its economy which President Trump tried but failed; tariffs on China’s exports and sanctions on export of sensitive US technologies to China would continue for the present.

On the military side, the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and the visit of warships to Taiwan Strait have been expanded and the US army has resumed ‘Yudh Abhyas’ exercise with the Indian Army in Rajasthan. The Biden administration has made it clear that it would stand up for its allies and partners which face China’s bullying.

Unlike Trump, Biden is proceeding in a systematic and consistent manner to consult US allies and partners, important members of the Republican and his own party and various government departments on the contours of his new China policy. During a visit to Pentagon last week, Biden announced the setting up of an interagency China task force headed by Ely Ratner, one of the best China specialists in Washington to coordinate the work of various departments dealing with political, economic, technology and military issues and formulate a coherent policy to win the competition against China.

It will also examine the current deployment of the US intelligence and military assets globally and how these should be reconfigured on ground on the basis of its new foreign policy and security priorities. The new policy will be based on consultation with and spell out the role of US allies and partners. It will submit a report in four months on a set of recommendations on key priorities and decisions to delineate a way forward on China-related issues.

Earlier, in a telephone conversation on February 8, President Biden and Prime Minister Modi had agreed to work together for a rule-based international order and a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific (IP). Biden had told PM Modi that the US would build “a stronger regional architecture through the Quad” (US, Japan, India and Australia), ostensibly to counter China’s influence in the region. A virtual meeting of the Quad Foreign Ministers on February 18 is the first after the Biden administration assumed office.

It is believed that President Biden’s remark about the transformation of Quad as a security framework to confront China spurred rethinking in Beijing on its immediate disengagement of military forces in Ladakh. President Xi who has been working for dividing the US-led transatlantic alliance for sometime by entering into trade and investment agreements with several Asian and European Union states before Biden’s taking over, took this initiative in the hope that India would not agree to the US proposal of transfiguration of Quad as a security framework directed against Beijing and would distance itself from the US. A thaw in China’s relations with India would permit Beijing to focus its attention exclusively on its competition with the US, Xi thought.

The checkmating of China’s deceptive advance into the Indian territories in Pangong Tso, Galwan valley, Hot Springs and Gogra Post by our armed forces, our efforts to modernise the border infrastructure, augment the force and armour strength in the region and firm stand taken by our leadership sent a clear message to China that its deceptive forays would not yield much dividend.

Xi is trying to reduce tensions with countries against which it had provoked conflicts earlier. Besides statements, China will be carefully watching the actual moves of the US, its allies and partners on the ground. China is happy at Biden’s statement that he would not be pursuing a military conflict with her.

The competition between the US and China will be long term and depend on whether the US and its allies can undertake much-needed economic, technological and military renewal to stay ahead of China, whether they can put enough pressure on Beijing to reform its unfair economic practices and thwart the latter’s aggression in the region. They will need to take new initiatives (other than China’s Belt and Road Initiative) to expand cooperation in economic, technological and strategic fields with countries in the region as China would punish those which would side with the US.

China would continue to buttress its economic, technological and military capacities in the hope that it would outmatch those of the US in course of time as it thinks time is on its side. Also, that many allies and partners of the US would not agree to sacrifice their economic interests with Beijing for supporting the US to protect its global supremacy.