Rahul’s missteps & BJP’s gains

THE outcome of the Haryana Assembly polls has enhanced Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stature and the BJP’s standing within the NDA. On the other hand, the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress will find making seat adjustments in Maharashtra and Jharkhand more challenging than before.

Both the Congress and the BJP suffered setbacks in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir, as the election results did not meet their expectations, but there is greater dismay in the grand old party.

The Congress campaign in Haryana went horribly wrong due to Rahul Gandhi’s overconfidence. He chose to travel to the USA amid electioneering, relied heavily on regional satrap Bhupinder Singh Hooda, and delegated ticket distribution to inhouse pollster Sunil Kanugolu.

Rahul Gandhi’s focus on caste census and caste-based reservation was high on rhetoric but lacked the necessary support.

Kanugolu, who enjoys Rahul’s support, overruled Bhupinder Hooda, Selja and AICC general secretary Deepak Babaria in ticket allocation. Until the last night of the campaign, Kanugolu was asserting that the party would cross the 60-seat mark. Former pollster Yogendra Yadav had also made Rahul believe the tally would reach 60 or higher.

Multiple inhouse surveys had predicted a Congress landslide in Haryana and Kanugolu micromanaged the entire communication campaign there.

For the BJP, J&K has been a setback as it failed to stop the National Conference-Congress alliance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and J&K

Lt Governor Manoj Sinha now face a demanding state government seeking full statehood and various concessions, which have the potential to strain Centre-state ties.

For the BJP, a hung Assembly with a chief minister from the Jammu region would have been ideal. However, National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah quickly understood the BJP’s strategy of fielding proxies. The NC did what it does best — working on ground, fielding Omar Abdullah in two constituencies, and performing impressively even after the Assembly segments were significantly altered during delimitation.

While the Abdullahs managed their campaign with ease and confidence, Rahul could not achieve the same in Haryana. He remained diffident and his rhetoric of “Kisan, Jawan, Pehalwan” seemed uninspired. Attacks on Modi and the Central Government did not resonate and Dalits, who united against Bhupinder Hooda. When Selja, the state PCC chief, expressed her displeasure for two weeks, Rahul did not adopt a hands-on approach. Instead, he relied on a group comprising TS Singh Deo, Ajay Makan and Mallikarjun Kharge to act as peacemakers.

The BJP, wary of Rahul’s effective campaign during the Lok Sabha elections on Dalit reservation insecurity, swung into action. The RSS cadre capitalised on Rahul’s statement that reservations would end with a 100 per cent quota based on a caste census.

This narrative of Rahul seeking to end reservations was effectively amplified on social media.

Rahul’s focus on a caste census and caste-based reservation was high on rhetoric but lacked the necessary support. In his team and the AICC secretariat, the Yadavs are dominant, while other OBC representatives are largely absent. Rahul was frequently accompanied by Ajay Yadav, Anil Yadav, Subhashini Yadav and Yogendra Yadav. This created a sense of exclusion among other OBC and Dalit leaders.

The Congress has a big problem in hand now. After Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, this is the fourth time that a regional satrap has failed and faltered. Kamal Nath was given a free hand in November 2023. As in Haryana now, many pollsters, opinion makers and inhouse surveys had predicted a Congress victory then, but the party was routed. There was a similar story in Chhattisgarh, where Bhupesh Baghel led the Congress to a defeat, and in Rajasthan, where Ashok Gehlot kept claiming that he would win.

There is an additional headache for the Congress and Rahul within the INDIA grouping. Several alliance partners — namely, Udhav Thackeray, Arvind Kejriwal and Omar Abdullah — have begun taunting the Congress, attributing the Haryana defeat to its ‘overconfidence’. Mamata Banerjee and Akhilesh Yadav are likely to join the bandwagon of restless allies.

Rahul will now be under pressure to advance the INDIA alliance story instead of focusing on his own party’s revival. Maharashtra would be a litmus test for Rahul and the grand old party.

Once specific aspect of the results would gladden hearts in the BJP — after the Lok Sabha polls, the RSS significantly backed the BJP in Haryana and the Jammu region. The RSS appears to have realised that it depends on Modi and the BJP for survival. During the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, reports suggested that the RSS and BJP had differed on some issues. BJP insiders attach significant weight to RSS Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat’s recent call for Hindu unity. If the RSS indeed supported Modi in Haryana, it is likely that similar backing will extend to Maharashtra.

In Kashmir, the National Conference benefited significantly from the anti-PDP and anti-BJP sentiment.

The NC gained largely due to the previous PDP-BJP alliance, especially after Ram Madhav was appointed as the point man. Madhav had earlier worked out the PDP-BJP alliance that had seen Mufti Mohammad Sayeed becoming chief minister.