Quantum warfare poses threat to national security

AS we find ourselves amid the fourth industrial revolution, with quantum technologies spearheading progress, nations worldwide acknowledge the critical necessity of quantum readiness. India has now joined these frontrunners, having launched the National Quantum Mission in April with a substantial budget allocation of Rs 6,000 crore. While the objectives of the mission are commendable, as we step into this new era, we must also consider the looming threat to our national security from quantum warfare.

The second quantum revolution, as it is known, could completely reshape technologies related to computing, communication, cryptography and sensing. Notably, many countries have recognised this shift, dedicating considerable resources to quantum research.

In 2018, the US passed the National Quantum Initiative Act ‘to accelerate quantum research and development for the economic and national security of the country.’ Russia, Germany, the UK, France and Canada have affirmed their commitment to quantum technologies, earmarking substantial funds for research projects.

China is emerging as a leader in quantum technology, launching the first-ever satellite dedicated to quantum communication, Micius, in 2016. The nation has reported breakthroughs such as the quantum teleportation of a two-particle system, creation of the world’s inaugural quantum router and the establishment of the first-ever quantum-encrypted government network. China’s ambitious plans include setting up a satellite-based quantum communication system and launching a solid-state quantum chip project.

While quantum technology holds immense promise for the advancement of humankind, it also has a dark side its potential weaponisation for military use. Quantum warfare will become a reality within the next 10 years. Quantum sensors would detect objects that are invisible to traditional sensors, such as stealth aircraft and submarines. The employment of quantum technology will potentially create new military capabilities that could disrupt current military systems, necessitating significant investments in upgrading defence capabilities and developing new offensive technologies. This potential could trigger a global quantum arms race, escalating tensions between nations and raising the risk of conflicts over strategic resources.

Quantum technology is today in an early stage of development, but the preparation for quantum warfare must begin now. The speed at which new technologies have evolved and have been adopted has surprised most experts. Within six months of the launch of ChatGPT, there are limitless ways in which users are utilising its potential. Similarly, a breakthrough in quantum technology could suddenly be upon us, and if we are not fully ready, it could have serious implications for our national security.

The most imminent threat posed by quantum technologies is in the field of encryption. Current encryption algorithms use a 128-bit or 256-bit key to encrypt data, and the fastest supercomputer available today would take billions of years to test every possible key and crack the encryption. As quantum computers mature, their formidable processing capacity could render current cryptographic systems obsolete. South China Morning Post recently reported that a Chinese quantum computer, Jiuzhang, can process artificial intelligence-related tasks 180 million times faster than the fastest supercomputer available today.

Although there are claims and counterclaims on how vulnerable the current encryption algorithms are to quantum computers and how quickly this technology would become available, there is a clear danger. Data harvesting (storing encrypted data for later decryption with quantum computers) has already commenced in several countries. In a 2022 poll conducted by Deloitte, more than half the respondents believed that their organisations were at risk of ‘harvest-now, decrypt-later’ attacks.

Recognising this imminent threat, President Joe Biden signed the Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Preparedness Act into law in January. This act encourages all government agencies to prioritise transitioning to post-quantum encryption solutions in light of the potential dangers posed by quantum computers.

The technology for the implementation of quantum-resistant communication is already with us. Post-quantum encryption refers to cryptographic algorithms that are secure against attacks by future quantum computers. There is a pressing need to implement these new encryption and signature schemes on our critical infrastructure assets.

Currently, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is conducting an international competition to select the ‘post-quantum cryptography’ algorithms to be standardised and adopted across the globe. The process started in 2016, and in 2022 the NIST identified four promising post-quantum algorithms. These could form industry and government-standard encryption and identity authentication schemes.

India has set ambitious targets in its National Quantum Mission to develop quantum computers, satellite-based secure quantum communications and multi-node quantum networks with quantum memories.

Our national and academic institutions Defence Research and Development Organisation, Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, Indian Institutes of Technology and International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad, to name a few already have some of the groundwork in place.

The need now is to craft a cohesive post-quantum security strategy. India has formidable economic power and abundance of talent, but often falls short in the formulation of a strategy the most notable absence being that of a national security strategy. The lack of a strategy generally leads to sub-optimal employment of resources. An essential element of India’s strategy must be securing of our infrastructure in three most critical sectors defence, energy and banking. Any breach in these systems, any weakness that exposes them to quantum-level threats, could have grave consequences.

In setting up the National Quantum Mission, the government acknowledges the urgency to adopt next-generation transformative technologies on a war footing. Just as ‘Digital India’ has been a tremendous success, we must now confront the challenges of the quantum age with an equal measure of urgency and determination.

(Lt Gen DS Hooda (Retd) is the former Northern Army Commander while Jay Oberoi is the founder of Synergy Quantum)