To tackle impact of climate change on crops, experts root for forecast models

In the backdrop of climatic change and increasing vagaries of weather impacting agriculture, experts called for introducing statistical-based crop yield forecast models to assist in policy making related to prices, marketing and storage of foodgrain.

According to a study, wheat productivity in Punjab increased rapidly till 1999-2000 due to technological advancements and slowed down thereafter. Analysing climatic and wheat yield data over a 48-year period, the researchers found that while there was no discernible trend in annual or monthly rainfall, increasing rainfall and relative humidity in the morning could decrease the detrended wheat productivity.

The study, undertaken by five experts from the Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, and published by the India Meteorological Department this month, was conducted to understand the growth in area, production and productivity of wheat in Punjab and to develop a yield forecasting tool.

Punjab is a major wheat-growing state, which contributes roughly 40 per cent of wheat to the central pool.

According to researchers, if temperatures are too high, the wheat plants may experience heat stress. Cooling of nights also affects productivity. If there’s insufficient rain, plants may suffer from drought stress, while increase in the total rainfall more than the average also has a harmful effect.

Various statistical models can not only help farmers prepare and mitigate the impact of weather-related risks, but also enhance economic benefits, the study added.