This general election, it's down to the wire in waveless Malwa

As the curtains are drawn on the high-decibel campaign in Punjab, The Tribune reporters sum up the mood of voters in the 13 Lok Sabha constituencies in the Malwa, Doaba and Majha belts of the state. Essentially, it is a four-cornered contest between the Congress, AAP, BJP and the Akali Dal, with radicals like Amritpal Singh throwing a spanner in the electoral works in some segments

Ruchika M Khanna

As the high-octane campaign in the politically significant Malwa region concluded today, the fortunes of 210 candidates hang in the balance in its eight constituencies of Bathinda, Patiala, Sangrur, Ludhiana, Ferozepur, Faridkot, Fatehgarh Sahib and Anandpur Sahib (parts of it in Doaba). The election in Malwa is largely waveless. It seems, therefore, that a win at the hustings will be the result of good strategising and manoeuvring by politicians, rather than an addressing of the issues that dominate the electorate.

Issues that matter

• Women are vociferously raising the issue of drug addiction
• Increasing unemployment is a cause for concern in the region
• Farmers are unhappy over the Central Govt’s unkept promises

In a multi-cornered contest, predicting the outcome can be a psephologist’s nightmare, as each of the four mainstream parties — Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — have a strong presence. Could there be a replay of Haryana’s Assandh Assembly constituency when the winner finally won with a mere 15.80 per cent share.

While AAP appears to be comfortable, drawing strength from the delivery of its promises, including 300 units of free power to domestic consumers and the advantage of having two and a half years of term in the state, rallies and roadshows by Opposition leaders also drew huge crowds. The Congress now appears to be on the rebound, mainly because it has put its top brass in the fight; the BJP appears to gain because of the blurring of caste and religious lines; while the SAD is hoping to consolidate the Panthic vote and recall the development works undertaken during its regime from 2007-17.

Illicit drug abuse, large-scale unemployment, sand mining or even age-old issues like the sharing of river waters and the return of Punjabi-speaking areas or control over Chandigarh find no mention by the candidates. The only issue that remained “on the face” was the farmer issue, raised by their unions, accusing the BJP of not fulfilling promises made in the aftermath of the 2020-21 farm agitation.

They even went to the extent of refusing to allow BJP candidates to campaign in villages — which largely meant that these candidates were only entertained by Dalit families in the village. As a consequence, the BJP’s strategy in Punjab this time has focused on reverse polarisation, by consolidating non-Jat votes, which include the nearly 45 per cent Hindus and Dalit Hindus.

The region is aflame with nail-biting fights being fought by top candidates vying for the label of the “Sardari” of the state — the constituencies of Ludhiana, Bathinda, Sangrur and Patiala are at the heart of the Punjab battle. Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, the face of the AAP campaign, BJP’s new favourite Ludhiana candidate Ravneet Singh Bittu, state Congress chief Amrinder Singh Raja Warring, also in Ludhiana; Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Singh Badal’s wife Harsimrat Badal, as well as the wife of Capt Amarinder Singh, BJP candidate Preneet Kaur — the political lives of these upstanding men and women are at stake.

No wonder then that this election is being regarded by many as a “personality-oriented” election rather than a “party-oriented” fight. Through the last leg of the campaign, from May 26 onwards, the big guns came all charged up here to drum up support for their party candidates — from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah to UP CM Yogi Adityanath; from AAP, Chief Minister Mann and party supremo Arvind Kejriwal.

While the Congress fired its salute by featuring Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, Akali Dal supremo Sukhbir Singh Badal led his party’s campaign from the front. As the D-day dawns, most contests in Malwa are veering towards either direct fights or triangular contests. Constituencies like Faridkot, Patiala and Anandpur Sahib are expected to see a four-cornered fight.

The other, rather disturbing, factor emerging in Malwa is the tacit support for Sikh hardliners, especially in Faridkot (in favour of Sarabjit Singh Khalsa, son of Indira Gandhi’s assassin Beant Singh), and in Sangrur for sitting MP and Akali Dal (Amritsar) president Simranjit Singh Mann.

The Dera Sacha Sauda can exert its influence in the Ferozepur, Bathinda, Sangrur and Patiala constituencies. This time, say the Dera leaders, they have disbanded the political wing of the Sangat and decided to remain apolitical.