Prospect of CAATSA waiver reveals US designs

Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) is a US security law that has been like the sword of Damocles for India’s policy-makers after India signed a $5.43-billion deal with Russia in 2018 to buy five units of S-400 Triumf missile systems. These are considered effective and advanced air defence mechanisms against aerial threats such as drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, rockets and of course fighter aircraft. NATO code-named SA-21 Growler and developed by Russia’s Almaz Design Bureau, the S-400 is an A2 AD (Anti Access Area Denial) asset meant to protect military, political and economic targets from aerial attacks. Designed to target 72 targets in

400-km range, it can track 160 targets up to 600-km range. It is comparable to the American PAC-3 Patriot system and the Israeli “Iron Dome”, statedly exceeding their performance.

Whilst India for sure needs such a missile to address the Chinese and Pakistani air threats, the S-400 has the capability to constrain the adversary’s air capability even within their own air space. At $500 billion per battery cost, the S-400 is half as cheap as the Patriot missile system. Deliveries which are now underway are expected to be completed by April 2023. Incidentally, CAATSA was invoked against Turkey last December by the US and is primarily targeted at Russia, Iran, North Korea and their arms suppliers.

With the passage of a legislative amendment by the US Congress, CAATSA waiver is now considered a done deal. The US President is expected to decide in its favour, once the Bill moved by Democratic Senator Ro Khanna passes through the Senate. Republican Senator Ted Cruz had told the President earlier this year that the US would be “extraordinarily foolish” to invoke CAATSA sanctions on India, hinting at the potential damage to the Quad arrangement in the Pacific against China. Ro Khanna, of course, has called his CAATSA amendment initiative “the most significant since the Indo-US nuclear deal.”

What is being seen as a diplomatic victory for India is the fact that CAATSA was invoked against NATO ally Turkey for buying the same S-400 system from Russia and against the Chinese Defence Ministry earlier, for seeking to purchase 10 SU-35 aircraft to probably reverse-engineer them for the Chinese Air Force. The US feels that a strong defence partnership with India, rooted in shared democratic values, is crucial for its Pacific policy. The Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (ICET) is another recent deal, expected to promote tie-ups between the governments, academia and industry. The ICET mainly relates to research in Artifical Intelligence (AI), quantum computing and biotech to achieve advancements in these fields beyond that done by nations such as China and Russia. This is a worthwhile proposition from the viewpoint of boosting India’s capabilities in kinetic, informational and cognitive elements in modern warfare.

Why is the US now cosying up to India in this manner? Clearly, it seeks to move India from overdependence on Russian technology to that offered by them. Ro Khanna mentioned some specifics during a recent TV interview wherein he said that India could possibly consider buying the F-35 fighters in lieu of the Russian SU-57s. So, the game is clearly one of monies and the core interests of the military-industrial complex in that country. It may be recalled that Turkey had been taken off from the F-35 programme for antagonising the US establishment earlier and is now being courted again by America with offers of an F-16 deal instead to promote the industry back home, which has political implications for the US government. So, India has to weigh its options carefully. Russia is a defence partner that has stood us in good stead in trying security situations earlier, when India desperately needed arms which were not forthcoming from the West, and that goodwill cannot be frittered away. Any option for additional American hardware, such as the possible acquisition of FA-18 Super Hornet by the Indian Navy, has to be seen in this light. We should not forget the US sanctions imposed after India’s nuclear tests in 1998 which impacted our LCA (light combat aircraft programme). India should concentrate on reliable imported technologies or better still, viable indigenous high-tech options via the Atmanirbharta route to meet the requirements of all three services.

While a cutting-edge technological veneer is the order of the day, it is the overall military capability, including manpower quality, that counts. There is no gainsaying the fact that the recent aircraft inductions into the IAF, such as the AH-64, C-17, Chinook and the Super Hercules, have transformed operational thinking. Likewise, participation in Red Flag, Cope Thunder, Malabar and other international exercises have helped us evolve from the moribund Warsaw Pact operational doctrinal moorings to modern Western-oriented air power doctrinal mindset. This needs to be honed further, adapting to local conditions to lead us to a viable military force structure. Weak areas such as indigenous aero engine manufacture need addressing so that world-class aerial platforms could be developed in the country.

The Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) should be made more accountable for developing contemporary technologies so that over the next few years, India could meet most of its defence equipment wherewithal from indigenous resources and brain power. Alongside, the services need to step up their Professional Military Education ambit through appropriate focus and exposure to high-value professional training courses with our Western allies. A strong military no doubt forms the bedrock of a strong nation.