Prolonged unrest in Myanmar limits India’s choices

Myanmar has entered the fifth month after the military coup, with resistance to the coup optically resilient and bedding in. No coup led by the Commander-in-Chief (General Min Aung Hlaing) himself has met with such popular dissent and wide-scale opposition. But this coup is atypical, as the military was voluntarily sharing power with the elected National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi in a unique hybrid system where the military called the shots and the powerful NLD provided the democratic veneer.

The junta’s game plan of legally disqualifying the NLD from future elections and taking penal action for sedition and corruption against Suu Kyi is playing out to a delayed schedule due to the growing strength of resistance. A recent study reveals that while protests have visibly declined, use of explosive devices and fighting in the border regions with Kachins, Karens and Chin has risen exponentially. Detained protestors are being tortured by the Office of Military Security which has raised a vigilante group called Pyuisawhti — a Burmese warrior prince — in May for surveillance in urban areas. According to the UN Human Rights Office, 893 civilians have been killed and nearly 6,000 protestors detained.

In the military’s estimate, action of the shadow National Unity Government (NUG) with the Civil Disobedience Movement and People’s Defence Force with their alliance with four ethnic armed organisations, has been brought under control. General Hlaing has given himself an indefinite extension of service beyond July when he was to retire. He is saying elections will be held (not in one or two years) but when peace and stability are restored. The economy has collapsed (down to 3 per cent and poverty risen from 24 to 27 per cent), replaced with underground trade and business by criminal networks. A suspicion that Beijing was behind the coup has boosted anti-China sentiments, prompting Chinese Ambassador Chen Hai to say his country is playing a constructive role in bringing peace and stability. While sanctions have not worked, internally displaced numbers have reached 100,000, mainly from Kayah State while refugees have crossed over into Thailand and India. Eight weeks after the ASEAN five-point consensus to find a negotiated solution, even the search for a special envoy is proving elusive.

Government prosecutors are completing their presentation of charges this month after which Suu Kyi’s defence team will present its case. In his first interview, General Hlaing told Hong Kong Phoenix TV that transfer of power to civil administration will happen after the elections. The NUG’s first press conference on June 4 had to be aborted as the military shut down the Internet.

As the peak of resistance is probably past, so has the use of force by the elite 77 Infantry Division, infamous for deployment against protests like the CDM. General Hlaing’s political solution consists of changing the electoral system from first-past-the-post to one that ensures the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) wins a majority which will require tweaking the military-drafted Constitution and encouraging the entry of additional political parties like the National Democratic Force which split from the NLD in 2010, People’s Party founded in 2018 and People’s Pioneer Party formed in 2019. Suu Kyi neither encouraged nurturing second-rung leadership, which she kept overcentralised, nor tapped provincial talent.

General Hlaing’s plans for regime change roughly follow the Thailand model. General Hlaing reached out to former General and now Prime Minister Prayuth Chan o’cha through the effervescent and pro-military Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin. A back-channel has existed between General Chan o’cha who won the Thai elections in 2019 by leading a pro-military political party. In 2014, General Chan o’cha had reached out to General Hlaing when he staged a coup, but recently he was disinclined to be publicly associated with Hlaing. That was the reason he skipped the Jakarta ASEAN meet in April. But in 2018, Hlaing was awarded the Knight and Grand Cross of Most Exalted Order of White Elephant for his support to the Thai military.

Burmese Generals are inward looking and consider themselves as guardians of society, religion and moral values. The military is the backbone of state administration and functional order.

India’s support for restoration of democracy may not align with the Hlaing model. Its Act East policy has been jolted due to unrest on the Indian and Thai borders as insurgency has been revived. India drew flak when it ordered states bordering Myanmar to prevent refugees from entering overland into Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland. India has not signed the 1951 UN Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol. Despite bar orders from New Delhi, Mizoram and Manipur have permitted 17,000 refugees, including the Chief Minister of Chin state, fleeing fighting, to enter their states. Unless India along with Japan, creates a niche position for itself in the ASEAN peace plan, its support for the junta will hurt its democratic credentials.

This month’s UNGA resolution condemning the coup and urging an arms embargo, passed with 119 out of 193 votes, was only the fourth resolution after Haiti (1991), Burundi (1993) and Honduras (2009). India is among 36 abstentions and it must step up support for democratic resistance for an inclusive Myanmar.

The ASEAN process is beset with challenges that are contained in the military spokesperson’s statement: “Whether we can allow a special envoy of ASEAN will depend on stability. Whether we follow ASEAN’s suggestion (five-point consensus) will depend on the situation in the country.”

Civil-military cohabitation appears not to have worked for both sides. Worse, they feel they don’t need each other. Military under genuine civilian control in a democratic dispensation is a distant goal; even restoration of power-sharing is unlikely, further limiting India’s strategic choices.