Parties battling inner demons in Karnataka

THE Karnataka Assembly election, scheduled to take place on May 10, is expected to be a cliffhanger. It’s an existential battle for the Congress, which has lost power in one state after another in recent years. For the BJP, it’s important to hold on to the only southern state where it is at the helm. The ruling party, whose top brass has been under attack from the Opposition this year over the Adani row and the alleged misuse of Central agencies, would also be looking to reaffirm Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership a year ahead of the 2024 General Election.

Both national parties have power dynamics within their state units. The Congress can be said to have a problem of plenty in Karnataka; it can be an advantage but also a cause for dissonance. It will not be projecting a chief ministerial face during its campaign in order to retain support of all social groups it is reaching out to and not alienate any faction.

The Congress’ state leadership does project a broader social coalition than the BJP — former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah belongs to the OBC; the party’s national president Mallikarjun Kharge is a Dalit from Karnataka; and state unit president DK Shivakumar is a Vokkaliga.

The Vokkaliga community, however, is also considered to be the main vote bank of the Janata Dal (Secular), founded by former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda; the party has frequently ended up being the kingmaker (or the king) whenever both national parties fail to get the numbers.

In the 2018 Assembly elections, no party got a majority and HD Kumaraswamy (Gowda’s son) became the CM in alliance with the Congress. The government collapsed following defections from both the Congress and JD (S); in July 2019, the BJP formed the state government. What is also noteworthy about the 2018 verdict is that the BJP had more seats than the Congress, although the latter had a larger vote share. This means that the BJP had a better strike rate in specific areas and would be hoping to do an encore this year.

There are some internal issues in the party. The current national BJP is structured in such a way that it has a problem handling strong state satraps or individuals who have their own standing. In the course of PM Modi’s second term, Chief Ministers were changed in Gujarat, Uttarakhand and Karnataka. This was done with a writ from Delhi as the national BJP projects every battle as being led by Modi (an exception is Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath, who holds his own because he has created his own template within the ambit of Hindutva).

In Karnataka’s case, the national leadership of the BJP and the RSS have had to reverse their strategy regarding BS Yediyurappa, who was removed as Chief Minister in July 2021 (his fourth incomplete term as CM). At that time, BJP members indicated that they hoped to nurture other leaders in the state. This cannot be delinked from the fact that in 2019, soon after Modi’s second term began, BL Santhosh was elevated to the powerful position of national general secretary of the BJP. Santhosh worked for eight years as the organisation man in the BJP’s Karnataka unit and is believed to have differences with the old patriarchal-style politics of Yediyurappa.

Yet, as elections drew closer, there was a rethink. The BJP’s fortunes in Karnataka are, after all, inextricably linked to those of Yediyurappa. When he left the BJP following corruption charges in 2012 and contested as the spearhead of a regional force, his outfit won just a few seats but brought the BJP numbers down. He rejoined the BJP in 2014.

So, a year after he was removed as CM, in August 2022, Yediyurappa was inducted into the highest decision-making body of the BJP, the parliamentary board. It was meant to be an honour after a demotion. As things stand now, the 80-year-old has made it clear that he sees his son BY Vijayendra as his successor. As the BJP has been targeting dynastic politics, it is a piquant situation for the party.

Yet, since losing Karnataka would involve a loss of face for the PM, who has made several trips to the state, the challenge has been to manage Yediyurappa without appearing to disrespect him. Yediyurappa’s clout comes from him being perceived as the tallest Lingayat political leader in the state. Lingayats enjoy economic and socio-cultural clout. Lingayat mutts have their own

zones of influence.

The Congress is hoping that in the run-up to the voting day, the balance of power within the BJP shifts in a manner in which Yediyurappa is seen as being slighted. This is because they believe he has the strongest mass base among the state BJP leaders. The Yediyurappa style of politics operates on the traditional model of having a caste base and then building networks across social groups; he is also said to have good relations with politicians across the spectrum.

In recent years, however, the BJP has experimented with igniting Hindutva issues and conflicts across Karnataka. With the election fast approaching, it has come up with rejigging caste reservation quotas at a frenzied pace. The aim is to retain support and make inroads among specific Scheduled Caste social groups.

Ultimately, the BJP’s template comprises an all-out Modi-centric campaign and efficient booth management by cadres. For the Congress, the involvement (or lack of it) of the Gandhis in campaigning in Kharge’s home state would be keenly watched.