Pakistan at a crossroads
PAKISTAN’S young Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has an aristocratic but controversial lineage. His grandfather, former PM Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, was a firebrand in his younger days, spouting vicious anti-Indian rhetoric while he rose to become a national hero. Zulfikar’s political ambitions led to the dismemberment of Pakistan as he refused to accept the verdict of the 1970 General Election, in which his Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) won a majority in West Pakistan, while Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s Awami League won overall majority in the country. What followed was carnage by the Punjabi-dominated Pakistan army in the country’s eastern half. Bangladeshi resistance and India’s military intervention ended Jinnah’s dream of Pakistan as a politically united but geographically divided Islamic State.
Bilawal has been loose-tongued and irresponsible in the past when speaking about India and Indian leaders.
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto assumed office as President of Pakistan after the Bangladesh debacle. He became realistic after the 1971 conflict and signed the Simla Agreement with the then PM Indira Gandhi. Thereafter, his party won the national elections and he was elected Prime Minister. He was, however, arbitrarily and unceremoniously jailed and hanged by the military regime led by Pakistan’s fundamentalist army Chief, Gen Zia-ul-Haq.
His daughter and Bilawal’s mother, Benazir Bhutto, thereafter, took charge of the PPP and was elected Prime Minister. The military, however, ousted her also. Later, she was assassinated under mysterious circumstances at a political rally.
Bilawal’s father, Asif Ali Zardari, hails from the landed aristocracy in Sind. Zardari assiduously worked his way to becoming the President of Pakistan from 2008 to 2013. He now heads the PPP, whose influence is restricted primarily to rural Sind. The leadership of Pakistan’s populous Punjab province is now split between two of the biggest national parties, the Tehreek-e-Insaf led by the increasingly popular Imran Khan and the Pakistan Muslim League led by Nawaz Sharif, who now lives in forced self-exile in London. His younger brother, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and daughter Maryam Sharif currently run the government as well as the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz). Determined to force early elections, Imran had got state Assemblies in Punjab and the Pashtun-dominated Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province dissolved. There is, meanwhile, an unseemly effort by Chief Justice of Pakistan Umar Ata Bandal to get Parliament immediately dissolved and fresh parliamentary elections ordered. This has resulted in public disenchantment and disgust against the Shehbaz government and the judiciary.
The Speaker of Pakistan’s Parliament, Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, joined the fray, writing a letter to the Chief Justice on April 26, in which he urged the higher judiciary not to intrude into the domain of the democratically elected Parliament. The most important element of state power in Pakistan, the army, is now functioning under the leadership of Gen Syed Asim Munir, who had faced harsh treatment by Imran. He was arbitrarily removed as the head of the ISI and replaced by one of Imran’s loyalists. Munir was a protégé of former army Chief General Bajwa. Imran and Bajwa, however, fell apart. Bajwa, in turn, is known to have played a key role in organising Imran’s ouster. He, thereafter, became the main force for improving relations with the US. He spearheaded the quest for better relations with India, including through ‘back-channel’ discussions with India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval.
Amid these developments, Pakistan proceeded on the controversial route of providing weapons to Ukraine. Infuriated by this move, Russia denied Pakistan the supply of oil at concessional prices. Moscow has evidently been ‘persuaded’ by its closest ally, China, to make oil available to Pakistan. Beijing, in turn, stands solidly behind its ‘all-weather friend’ Pakistan. Moscow, meanwhile, needs Beijing’s support desperately for its military intervention in Ukraine. China, in turn, has now raised its profile internationally by its readiness to mediate in Ukraine. New Delhi has to carefully note these developments as it proceeds to deal with a heavily indebted Pakistan.
It is now clear that Pakistan is living from hand to mouth, with the US, the IMF and the World Bank demanding stringent austerity and economic changes before the IMF opens its purse strings and gives the go-ahead to the country for receiving assistance from international financial institutions. Amid these developments, Saudi Arabia has made its preferences in Pakistan known, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently hosting Nawaz Sharif in Riyadh with the approval of the monarch, King Salman. Moreover, it is no secret that the Saudi monarchy is not exactly fond of Imran, even as the Shehbaz government is fighting shy of holding early elections to keep Imran out of office. Imran is no friend of India. He has a hardline, adversarial approach while dealing with and speaking about relations with India.
Bilawal has been loose-tongued and irresponsible in the past when speaking about India and Indian leaders. He is, however, coming to India for the SCO meeting of Foreign Ministers in Goa instead of following the Pakistani practice of participating in such meetings in India through electronic channels. This comes at a time when his perpetually bankrupt government is in deep trouble, politically and financially. It remains to be seen if he will follow the normal diplomatic practice of seeking a meeting with S Jaishankar, his Indian counterpart. Jaishankar has recently reiterated India’s concerns about terrorism arising from infiltration across the Line of Control. One hopes that Bilawal will follow the balanced and mature path of his father and the examples set by his mother and grandfather when they interacted with India even while Pakistan was passing through difficult times.
