Pak beset with economic and border woes

While living in Karachi as India's Consul-General four decades ago, one could not help but notice that there was a quality in the lives of its people that kept them well fed, relaxed and humorous. There were little signs that the country was heading for difficult times, economically.

A decade later, in the late 1990s and in the first years of the 21st century, it became increasingly clear that with a consistently low rate of savings and growing debt, Pakistan was heading towards becoming a tottering economy en route to virtually falling apart. Pakistan's people, however, still retained the ability to laugh at themselves. When asked how they reached this situation, the answer was: "We depend on the three almighties: 'Allah, Army and America' to protect us."

Such situations were, however, of a short duration, during which western financial institutions, the US and rich Arab Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, financially bailed out Pakistan. Its donors were, however, soon finding it far more difficult to open their pockets to pay for Pakistan's bailouts.

The net result has been a continuing precarious economic situation in Pakistan and of it being unable to raise adequate foreign exchange resources to meet its needs. London has, meanwhile, remained the Mecca of Pakistan's elite. Its leaders like Nawaz Sharif and the late General Pervez Musharraf owned large properties in the UK, while the poor and middle classes in Pakistan struggled to make both ends meet.

Amidst this evolving situation, people like the wealthy Sharif family, with money stashed away in houses and bank accounts in London and elsewhere, still call the shots in today's Pakistan. They, meanwhile, continue playing second fiddle to the army, now led by General Asim Munir. The worthy General Munir, who is now loathed by civilian politicians, rules the country by using coercion. While former cricket hero-turned-politician Imran Khan, undoubtedly, enjoys public support, the army leadership loathes him and resents his popularity.

India must carefully watch these developments and deal firmly with any challenges posed by the present regime, controlled by General Munir, whose rash talk and behaviour are very different from those of his mentor and predecessor, General Bajwa.

The country's Prime Minister, Shahbaz Sharif, functions under pitiable conditions. He has to silently listen to the diktats of his elder brother and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on the one hand and General Asim Munir on the other.

According to a recent study by the University of Utah, Pakistan remains today a "country plagued with high inflation rates, trade deficits and debt." Adding to its problems, the study notes, Pakistan also still imports a lot of its urban requirements, defence and fuel, leading to constantly rising trade deficits. Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves have dwindled to just around $4 billion in June this year. This is not enough to meet the cost of even a month's imports.

There is nothing to suggest that Pakistan can overcome these challenges anytime soon. The country appears set to remain an "international basket case", constantly looking for foreign doles to balance its monthly accounts, while simultaneously seeking to repay its ever-increasing debts.

This situation will prevail. While living within available means requires an effort, there is nothing to suggest that Pakistan's serious problems in repaying its foreign debts will end in the foreseeable future. Constantly boasting about its China-designed nuclear weapons and missile arsenals, amidst the continuing need for foreign doles, does not really meet the immediate needs of Pakistan's people, or add to Pakistan's international stature.

Pakistan's woes are not confined to its economy. The biggest setback it has received is in its relations with Afghanistan, with whom it shares a 2,600-km border. The border has been marked by shootouts and tensions in recent years. According to Afghanistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, these skirmishes have involved the Baluchistan Liberation Army and the Pakistani Taliban. There have also been clashes between the two countries. The Afghanistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted recently: "The 2024 Afghanistan-Pakistan skirmishes were a series of armed clashes, consisting of cross-border airstrikes and exchanges of gunfire between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The conflict also separately included the Baluchistan Liberation Army and the Pakistani Taliban."

It is clear that Pakistan is facing a situation where its security is being challenged across its northern borders with Afghanistan. The display of bravado on its borders with India, with continuing infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir, could well lead to Pakistan ending up with a "two-front situation."

With President Trump assuming power in the US, any possibility of Pakistan escalating tensions in relations with India can be ruled out. The US, more than others, knows well about the Chinese content in Pakistan's nuclear weapons and missile programmes. President Trump is, moreover, not a "panda lover", ready to look the other way at China's policies and strategic ambitions.

India's relations with the Trump administration will most likely be better than those with the Biden administration, which was critical of what it felt were human rights violations in India.

That both China and Pakistan will face a tough time with the incoming Trump administration is now clear. Trump has voiced his views on China, with whom he intends to act firmly. Meanwhile, despite his problems, Pakistan's Army Chief, General Asif Munir, appears determined to infiltrate well-armed terrorists into Jammu and Kashmir.

The time has, perhaps, come to respond to General Munir's adventurism, especially given the advantage of having several options available to India. It is no secret that the Punjabi-dominated Pakistan army is not exactly popular in the provinces other than Punjab.

New Delhi also needs to take a closer look at the challenges the less-than popular General Munir faces from opposition leader Imran Khan, who has been having a hard time since Munir took over. Imran Khan is, however, no friend of India, since the days he played cricket against India in the early 1980s. Pakistan would have, meanwhile, no doubt, taken note of India's improving ties with Afghanistan.