Onus on India to engage with Myanmar government
ON April 10, Myanmar’s military junta carried out its most savage air attack against civilian supporters of resistance forces in Sagaing region, killing around 100 people and injuring several more.
Over two years after the military coup, a peaceful resolution of the civil war in Myanmar appears unlikely. The ASEAN Five-Point Consensus is also a remote possibility. The 2008 Constitution drafted by the military has been violated by extending emergency beyond two years. The election promised in August is unlikely though Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) has been dissolved for not registering in time. The Ukraine war has hogged the limelight, pushing Myanmar below the radar. As in Ukraine, India is playing a difficult balancing act in Myanmar too, pitted against China that has Russia and Pakistan as its accomplices. No happy ending is in sight.
The civil war or the resistance has reached a stalemate, with the military having the upper hand. Unlike conventional coups, this one has not succeeded and plunged the country into violence and humanitarian disaster. Some statistics will be instructive.
According to Lowy Institute, Australia, the military controls 17 per cent of the territory, ethnic armed organisations (EAOs)/People’s Defence Forces (PDF) control 52 per cent and 23 per cent of the territory is contested. As many as 42 of 330 townships are under martial law. Austrian lawyer Volker Turk of the United Nations Human Rights Council on March 6 reported increase in airstrikes by 141 per cent, shelling by 100 per cent and houses set ablaze by 380 per cent in the second year of the military takeover. At least 2,947 civilians, including 244 children, were massacred and soldiers looted freely. The first public execution of four political activists was carried out on July 5, 2022. In other violent incidents, nearly 3,000 political activists and civilians were killed; 14,000 were imprisoned, including 90 lawmakers; 4,00,000 persons left the country (excluding 1 million Rohingyas); and 1.2 million are internally displaced persons. Twelve media houses were closed and 142 journalists arrested, with 57 still detained.
The Army’s 3,80,000 personnel and 80,000 policemen are fighting against an estimated 70,000 PDF and unknown number of EAOs. Around 6,000 policemen and 2,000 Army personnel are believed to have joined the PDF. Up to June 2022, unconfirmed casualty figures were 15,000 military and 1,200 PDF. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing appears to be firmly in control of his field commanders and is fighting not to lose and will likely hold out even if the resistance is not defeated. Al Jazeera’s Zaheena Rasheed said in November 2022 that the military might not last out 2023. But unless it implodes, such foreboding is wishful thinking.
The ASEAN is split over method of conflict resolution though ‘compromise’ is the buzz word. On March 13, Bangkok Post reported that Track 1.5 Dialogue was held between ASEAN members, including Myanmar (which has been boycotted from ASEAN meetings and summits), and dialogue partners, which includes Myanmar’s neighbours. Also attending were the US, Japan and the UK. Thailand, a country the junta wants to emulate, attempted, unsuccessfully for 15 months, to start a peace process. But the junta started a dialogue with seven EAOs and declared a unilateral ceasefire with them. It was not clear whether the National Unity Government (NUG) representing resistance was invited for talks.
The economy is in a shambles, with the kyat in freefall. The GDP shrunk 1.5 times in 2021 and inflation fuelled, which reached almost 20 per cent in mid-2022. Liberalisation, started in 2000, stopped with the coup. Limits imposed on ATM withdrawals and suspension of investment have affected the economy. Jet fuel ban by the US will cripple trade and the nascent defence industry started with the help of Russia and China. New electoral laws and increased reservation for the military are designed to ensure that civilian political parties do not outvote military.
The junta, which shares a love-hate relationship with China, was forced to look north even as anti-China sentiment grew further when President Xi Jinping visited Naypyidaw in 2019. He signed 30 agreements with the then NLD government. Most of the projects were on hold during Covid and later the civil war revived; critical among them being the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) from Yunnan to deep-sea port Kyaukphyu to bypass the Strait of Malacca through which 80 per cent of China’s energy passes.
Rail, gas and oil pipelines are to connect the CMEC. The Institute for Strategy and Policy, Myanmar, has reported that 83 per cent of those surveyed said the CMEC would benefit China more than Myanmar. Russia is helping in a big way, including setting up of a nuclear power plant and supplying defence equipment. Pakistan has sold it JF-17 jets that are non-operational, but China remains the junta’s mainstay.
Where does India, which shares a 1,642-km border with Myanmar, figure in the strategic matrix? Its five main concerns are balancing China, Act East policy, Indian insurgent sanctuaries across border, democracy and refugees. Former Chief of the Army Staff Gen MM Naravane, who was Defence Advisor in Myanmar, said last month at a seminar, ‘Myanmar: Two Years after the Coup’, that India should deal with any government of the day rather than waiting for the elected government to come to power “We have to ramp up our efforts to engage with the government and the people,” he added. When the then Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla paid a visit in December 2021, he met Suu Kyi, while expressing hope of return of democracy and an end to violence. When Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra went there in November 2022, he made no mention of democracy, Suu Kyi and release of prisoners. Realpolitik is India’s game.
The Act East policy is disrupted due to the civil war. Connectivity projects such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway and Kaladan multimodal project are in a mess. Insurgency is fading and sanctuaries are not a serious concern. The junta is using the People’s Liberation Army, Manipur, insurgents based inside Myanmar to fight the PDF. On January 11-12, the Myanmar Air Force bombed Camp Victoria, headquarters of the NUG allied with Chin National Front, which is 3-5 km from the Indian border.
Nearly 1,00,000 refugees, mostly Chin, including a few lawmakers, have crossed over to Manipur and Mizoram. If violence exacerbates, many more refugees could be expected. China marches ahead of India in Myanmar, but Beijing does not have free rein. India must not keep all its eggs in the junta’s basket, but have channels open with the NUG.
