Normal monsoon likely this year: IMD
New Delhi, April 14
Sending a positive signal to the agriculture sector, especially for India’s large tracts of unirrigated fields, the IMD today said the southwest monsoon for this year will be in the “normal” range and also fairly well-distributed over most parts.
Marginal decline in rains over the years
- 96-104% rains of LPA of 87 cm likely
- 40% probability of normal rains
- 15% chance of above normal
- 5% likelihood of excess rains
- 60% overall chance of good rains
Overall, the seasonal rains will be 96 per cent to 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 87 cm of the 1971-2020 period during the June-September period.
Monsoon is considered normal if it falls under 96 to 104 per cent of the LPA.
However, this year onwards, the weather office has also introduced a new rainfall normal figure based on the 1971-2020 data, showing a marginal decline in monsoon rainfall and overall annual rainfall in the country over the long period.
The new rainfall normal, rounded off at 87 cm for the southwest monsoon season, is a marginal decline from the previous “normal” of 88 cm which was calculated on the basis of rainfall data from 1961-2010, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said here. Quantitatively, rains are likely to be 99 per cent of the LPA with a model error of +/- 5%. Northeast, some parts of northwest and southern parts of the South Peninsula will receive “below normal” rainfall.
“Spatial distribution suggests normal to above normal rains over many areas of northern parts of Peninsular India and adjoining Central India, over foothills of the Himalayas and some parts of northwest. Northeastern states, northern parts of northwest India and southern parts of Peninsular India are likely to get below normal rainfall,” Mohapatra said. But this will not affect the agriculture operations as rainfed parts will get “normal to above” rains. There is a 40 per cent probability of “normal” rains, 15 per cent of “above normal” and 5 per cent of “excess” rains. In other words, there is 60 per cent probability of good rains in the country.
Currently, La Niña conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region, which are likely to continue during the season. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean are neutral, which will continue until the beginning of the season. Thereafter, there is an enhanced probability for negative IOD conditions.
The new rainfall normal has been computed using rainfall data 4132 raingauge stations distributed across 703 districts of the country.
