Maharashtra political theatre: Can Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray sway voters' sentiments in 2024

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, July 3

The Nationalist Congress Party split on a quiet Sunday afternoon may not have been as dramatic as the Shiv Sena split last year but its political impact on the great Maharashtra political theatre may be no less dramatic. As the NCP goes through similar parting throes—tears and indignation followed by individual show of strength—the déjà vu factor is unmissable.

Amid the gathering of strength, the two NCP groups are now expected to fight it out over the election symbol—an alarm clock placed on the Indian flag—like Shiv Sena had for its election symbol, bow and arrow. Meanwhile, there is also speculation about “similar splits” in Samajwadi Party (UP) and JD-U (Bihar)—whose leaders, like Sharad Pawar, are at the forefront of the opposition unity against the ruling BJP.

Confusion over election symbol may help BJP

How the NCP voters react to the divide in the party remains to be seen but the division and confusion over the election symbol is expected to help the BJP which seems to be in a tight spot in Maharashtra, the state that sends as many as 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha, according to some recent surveys.

Apparently, the input that Maharashtra was among most uncertain states as far as Prime Minister Narendra Modi is concerned is said to have set the BJP leadership in action.

With 48 seats, Maharashtra is the second biggest state in the Lok Sabha after Uttar Pradesh. It is a state that the BJP is also banking on after the Hindi heartland regions to give PM Modi a third term at the Centre.

According to reports, when people were asked if they think he should become the PM again, 42.1 per cent responded in the affirmative and 41.5 per cent in the negative. Meanwhile, 16.4 per cent of respondents said they “did not know or could not say”.

While Gujarat, UP, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand were overwhelmingly in favour of PM Modi, in states like Tamil Nadu, Punjab and Kerala, the sentiment was against him, according to the reports.

The Sharad Pawar factor

Observers say that Uddhav Thackeray may have become the chief minister in 2019 but it was all thanks to Sharad Pawar, the grand old man of Maharashtra politics.

Not only did he play the anchor and face of the three-party alliance, which was removed after Eknath Shinde-led revolt, the visuals of him campaigning at a poll rally in Satara under a downpour led to a major setback for the BJP. Whether he can still whip up emotions and sentiments at his age remains to be seen.

Sharad Pawar has been at the forefront of efforts to unite the Opposition. Loyalists like Praful Patel walking away may be a huge embarrassment and a loss of face for the NCP supremo, even though the BJP too may have a lot of explaining to do to voters given that many of those who have ditched Sharad Pawar are facing corruption charges/probes by central agencies.

Ajit Pawar is also an accused in an alleged cooperative bank scam and an irrigation scam and PM Modi is being reminded of his views on corruption in the NCP.

Standalone appeal: like Shinde, Ajit Pawar is also untested

The fact that Maharashtra appeared almost equally divided between pro-Modi and anti-Modi voters along with a sizable number of undecided people makes the key state difficult to predict. It is also a situation that casts a degree of uncertainty over the BJP’s prospects in 2024, both Lok Sabha and Assembly.

Another factor is that the standalone appeal of Shinde is untested. The Shiv Sena has been the BJP’s “partner” in the past. The 2024 elections will be the first time Shinde will be tested after the Sena split. So while the Shinde group may have won the battle for the party name and symbol, how Sena voters react to the Uddhav Thackeray factor remains to be seen.

Likewise is the case for Ajit Pawar.

His strength minus the Sharad Pawar factor will also be tested next year if the situation prevails. Observers say the BJP may have emerged a dominant force in Maharashtra politics but it is nowhere close to the dominance the saffron party enjoys in Gujarat and much of the Hindi belt, a reason why Ajit Pawar and Shinde are needed.