Explainer: Sharad Pawar and the art of politics, is the Maharashtra strongman really losing control of NCP?

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, May 3

Around mid-April, the daughter of NCP’s now-resigned president Sharad Pawar, Supriya Sule, predicted something “big” in political circles in the coming 15 days.

“There will be two big political explosions in the next 15 days, one in Delhi and the other in Maharashtra,” she had said.

Also read: What is brewing in Maharashtra–the state with as many as 48 Lok Sabha MPs

The “explosion” in Maharashtra happened quite within a fortnight of her saying that.

On May 2, Pawar, known for his shrewd and astute style of politics, announced his resignation as Nationalist Congress Party chief, leading to some very dramatic scenes from cadres even though theMaratha strongman specified that he was not retiring from active politics.

A couple of hours later, nephew Ajit Pawar—the man who supposedly led to the decision—announced that the Maratha strongman will “rethink” the decision.

“Sharad Pawarji has agreed to rethink his decision. He needs two-three days. But he will do it only if all protesting workers go home,” Ajit told the agitated cadre camping at the Yashwantrao Chavan Pratishthan in Mumbai.

The development came at a time when Ajit Pawar was perceived to be making ambitious moves, possibly also engineering a split in the NCP and considering aligningwith the BJP with the help of some MLAs.

The buzz was that Ajit Pawar could support the Eknath Shinde-led government in Maharashtra in case the Supreme Court rules in favour of the disqualification of 16 rebel MLAs, or may also join the BJP.

Reactions said it all

While opposition leaders expressed shock, BJP national vice-president Dilip Ghosh said there will be a “bigger change” in Maharashtra politics.

“NCP’s survival is in jeopardy…. Sharad Pawar is losing his power”, he was also quoted as saying.

“Since a lot of days, there has been some turmoil in Maharashtra politics. There have been some talks going on…This is a result of it”, he said

Killing many birds with one stone

Is Sharad Pawar really losing control of the party he founded?

Pawar had said he would not let the party split and the dramatic scenes at the party meeting proved he was still in control, contrary to what the naysayers may have to say.

His decision may have left many shocked but those who know his style of politics say it was an apt example of killing many birds with one stone

Cadres’ reaction reiterated his stature and position in his party and also in the opposition camp,observers say

It also proved to his nephew that Sharad Pawar continued to be a strong pillar of the NCP he had co-founded with Tariq Anwar and late PA Sangma in 1999 after quitting the Congress over then party chief Sonia Gandhi’s foreign-origin issue.

The reaction from NCP cadres showed he was still in control, the observers said.

A section of observers believe that this could be a calculated move by the shrew politician that Pawar is to pave the way for his nephew to align with BJP without any of the blame  falling on him.

“Ajit Pawar can become the chief minister (which he wants) with the help of the BJP and Supriya Sule can be appointed the NCP. Sharad Pawar can call it the decision of party. The BJP also needs NCP to get sizable seats from Maharashtra,” they say.       

The buzz also is that he may appoint a working president, which can be anyone from his daughter to Ajit Pawar to one of the other seniorleaders and continue as the chief of the party.

A day after NCP MLA Jitendra Awhad resigned from his post as national general secretary along with several other office bearers.

In any case, after the resignation of the president, other office-bearers become irrelevant. 

A larger plan? 

It was Pawar who engineered the Maha Vikas Aghadi, the coalition of the NCP, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and the Congress, enabling Uddhav Thackeray to become the chief minister of the state for the first time.

Though Uddhav Thackeray lost power after a coup in his party led by Eknath Shinde, Sharad Pawar is one of the cornerstones for opposition unity in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The astute politician has been part of many coalitions.

Worried opposition leaders seemed relieved and so were the MVA allies when Ajit Pawar appeared to make the announcement about him re-considering the decision.

His autobiography says it all, including his feelings about Ajit Pawar’s move in 2019 to ally with BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis and also Uddhav Thackeray giving up his government without a good fight.

“We all knew that there would be desperate attempts to break this alliance. The government collapsed because Uddhav resigned without giving a fight,” Sharad Pawar wrote.

The big question therefore is will Sharad Pawar give up the party he founded without a fight or is his resignation a part of a larger political plan?

Importance of Maharashtra

Maharashtra sends the second largest number of members to the Lok Sabha after Uttar Pradesh.

With as many as 80 MPs, UP is an important state for any political party, likewise Maharashtra and the 48 members of parliament it sends to the Lok Sabha. Apart from Lok Sabha, the Assembly elections are also due in the state in 2024.