All eyes on whether BJP will retain UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and make an impact in Punjab

Vibha Sharma

New Delhi, March 9

In just about 24 hours, it will be clear if the “double-engine-led development” poll post of the ruling BJP helped it retain the states it rules–Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur–and made some impact in Punjab where it contested as a senior partner for the first time.

A lot is riding for BJP on these elections, especially the 403-member UP Assembly, apart from prestige of the party and that of incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath who faced a tough challenge from Akhilesh Yadav-led coalition who managed to turn these elections almost into “presidential”, relegating others like BSP’s Mayawati and Congress’s Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to the sidelines.

Notably, apart from the future prospects of leaders like Adityanath, Akhilesh and his allies, the results from UP will also impact the Presidential elections due in July when President Ramnath Kovind completes his term.

The President of India is elected by an electoral college formed by 776 parliamentarians and around 4,120 legislators.

The total strength of the electoral college is around 10,98,903 votes.

The value of the vote of an MP is around 708 while that of an MLA depends upon the population of the state according to the Census and the number of elected members of the House.

The value is highest for a UP legislator (208) and lowest for Sikkim (7).

To win the elections, a candidate requires ‘50% of valid votes polled +1’ of the first preference votes casted.

In the last elections, the BJP plus allies managed around 325 seats from UP.

This apart, for Samajwadi Party and the rainbow alliance, including Rashtriya Lok Dal, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, Mahan Dal, Pragatisheel Samaj Party (Lohia) and Janvadi Party (Socialist), it is make or break, and likewise for the Congress in Uttarakhand and Goa.

While there are no permanent friends or foes in politics, RLD’s Jayant Chowdhary mocking BJP’s offer publicly and Om Prakash Rajbhar of the SBSP dumping the NDA in favour of Akhilesh Yadav is unlikely to go unnoticed. For them and OBC leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya, Dara Singh Chauhan and others, who switched sides on the eve of the elections, causing embarrassment to Adityanath and BJP, it will be a setback if the BJP wins tomorrow.

Likewise, if the Akhilesh Yadav-led coalition does well, it would be counted as a setback for Adityanath and not Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who gave these elections his very best, as he always does, leading from the front.

Just like the BJP, Akhilesh Yadav also received good support in these elections, including from urban population.

For example, an architect in Lucknow was all praise for the BJP, including the development works like roads, clearing congested areas in places like Rae Bareli, law and order, toilets for women, free rations for poor etc. Still, she voted for the Samajwadi Party as “protest against Hindu-Muslim politics of the BJP”.

A clear verdict for the BJP will prove wrong political concepts of many such floating voters who are otherwise the supporters of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies.  A win for the BJP will be counted as “pro-incumbency, support for the development works” and the fact that whether an OBC or a Jat inside the polling booth he or she is a “Hindu”.

Several Muslim voters in the Peeli Kothi area of PM Modi’s Varanasi constituency appreciated the development but also pointed the “change in attitude, including in police” in the past five years. “For example, now if an accident involving vehicles of a Hindu and a Muslim takes place, the police invariably support the former. This is not good for the social fabric of the society. There is also fear that if the BJP returns to power, there will be changes in power tariff,” said a Muslim shopkeeper in the area, predicting “losses for the BJP, including in PM’s constituency”.

Meanwhile, the wait is on for tomorrow.