China could match nuke prowess of Russia, US in decade: SIPRI

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, June 13

While India and Pakistan have all added to their nuclear arsenal in the past one year, China, over the next decade, is set for “significant modernisation” and expansion of its weaponry to match that of Russia and the US.

Projections suggest China will deploy as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either Russia or the USA in a decade, said Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in its annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament and international security.

The report said as of January, China maintained an estimated total stockpile of about 410 nuclear warheads — around 60 more than estimated for the previous year. The US has 5,244 warheads and Russia 5,889. “The number of Chinese intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) is likely to reach or even exceed the numbers held by Russia or the United States,” the report said.

Since China has never declared the size of its nuclear arsenal, the assessments here rely on the data from the US Department of Defense.

“Chinese posture is changing significantly, with hundreds of missile silos being built, additional submarines under construction and new nuclear bombers being added to the force,” SIPRI said. This includes an ‘early warning counterstrike’ strategy, akin to a ‘launch-on-warning’ posture, using ground and space-based sensors to enable rapid launch of missiles. China had deployed at least three early warning satellites to facilitate this posture.

SIPRI said India was estimated to have a growing stockpile of 164 nuclear weapons — a small increase from the previous year. “These weapons were assigned to a maturing nuclear triad of aircraft, land-based missiles and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines,” it said.

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