9 states will poll in 2023 before PM Narendra Modi seeks another term in 2024. What these Assembly elections mean for political players

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, January 17

Nine  states—Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram—will poll before the 2024 general election and four—Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim—around the time Prime Minister Narendra Modi will seek another mandate.

It is possible that elections are also held in these two years in Jammu and Kashmir—the first one since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.

The ruling BJP on Monday sounded the poll bugle with PM Modi’s roadshow and the mega strategy-building exercise—the National Executive meeting. The Congress, too, is building ranks with its Bharat Jodo Yatra. Key regional players and other opposition parties are also gearing up for the nine-state battle in 2023—seen as the semi-final to the big one in 2024.

Among the states (barring in the northeast) going to the polls in 2023, four—Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan—are a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress.

Meanwhile, the Congress does not have a government in any of the states in northeast India.

In those terms these two years—2023 and 2024—are a do-or-die for all parties.

Here is a look at states due for polls in 2023

Rajasthan (200 seats)

Congress’s Ashok Gehlot is the chief minister of the state which his party won in a tough fight with the BJP. Other parties like the Bahujan Samajwadi Party, Bhartiya Tribal Party, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party and RLD are also in the fray but the main contest will be between the incumbent Congress and the opposition BJP—both struggling with deep factionalism and internal strife. In those terms, it is an equal battle for both.

Madhya Pradesh (230 seats)   

BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan is the chief minister of the state that originally saw a government led by Congress’s Kamal Nath following a neck-and-neck contest between the two parties in 2018. However, just before the country locked down for the covid-19 pandemic, the BJP and Chouhan managed to engineer a coup with the help of Kamal Nath’s former colleague Jyotiraditya Scindia, who is now in the BJP.

Madhya Pradesh, too, is a direct contest between the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress. Other parties in the fray include the BSP and Samajwadi Party. Though, like in Rajasthan, a power struggle is also going on in the BJP in MP, making the situation somewhat better for the Congress.

Chhattisgarh (90 seats)

Congress’s Bhupesh Bhagel managed to hold on ever since he wrested the state from the BJP with a convincing margin in 2018, winning 68 seats, leaving 15 for the BJP. It will be a direct fight between the Congress and the BJP. The other parties in the contest are Janta Congress Chhattisgarh which won five seats in the last elections, and BSP.

Karnataka (224 seats)

BJP’s Basavaraj Bommai is heading Karnataka which initially saw a government led by the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition in 2018. The coalition was overthrown in a way quite similar to the political turn of events in Madhya Pradesh.

The Congress-JD (S) government collapsed following the resignation by several members of the coalition. Subsequently, the BJP formed the government headed by senior leader BS Yediyurappa, who later resigned facilitating the way for Basavaraj Bommai in July 2021. However, both the BJP and its main challenger Congress are witnessing a fierce power battle. Karnataka, incidentally, is the first and the only BJP-ruled state in south India.

Telangana (119 seats)

An interesting state to watch out for in 2023, Bharat Rashtra Samithi, formerly known as Telangana Rashtra Samithi, is in power in Telangana, which the BJP is eyeing following a good run in the 2019 general election despite winning only one seat in the 2018 Assembly election. Meanwhile TRS/BRS founder K Chandrashekar Rao, who led the agenda of creating a separate Telangana state, is also eyeing a national role for himself and his party in 2024. Others in the fight include TRS ally AIMIM, Congress, BSP and the left parties.

Tripura (60 seats)

BJP’s Manik Saha became the chief minister in May 2022 after Biplab Kumar Deb, who was apparently replaced to beat the anti-incumbency factor by the party. While the Communist Party of India (Marxist) should be called its main rival, observers are keeping a close watch on the Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance which thrashed both the BJP and the CPM in the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council election in April 2021. TIPRA and the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Twipra won 18 of the 28 elected council seats. Others in the fray include Mamata Banerjee-led TMC, RSP, All India Forward Bloc and the CPI

Meghalaya (60 seats)

Conrad Sangma of the National People’s party is the Chief Minister, though his party, the NPP, came second after the Congress in 2018. NPP allied with regional parties, including United Democratic Party, People’s Democratic Front, Hill State People’s Democratic Party, BJP and an independent to form the government. Subsequently, Conrad also contested the by-election

Nagaland (60 seats)

The BJP is in alliance with the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party led by Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio.

Mizoram (40 seats)

Chief Minister Zoramthanga heads the government in the Christian-majority state. He is also the president of Mizo National Front, the party in power. Congress and Zoram People’s Movement are among the other players in the state. For 2023, the saffron party has set its sights in the state where it has limited presence.