Mahayuti, MVA shift focus to wooing rebels in Maha battle
The stage is set for a tough battle in Maharashtra where opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) featuring the Congress-NCP(SP) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) is seeking to upstage ruling Mahayuti coalition comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP.
Both parties are now actively focused on placating rebels who have the potential to disturb the applecart on both sides. In an election where the two rivals appear evenly pitched ahead of the last date of withdrawal of candidates on November 4, the number of dissidents in the fray could turn the tables for either side.
As of today, there are a whopping 7,995 candidates who have filed nominations for the November 20 elections to the 288-member state Assembly. The last date of filing of nominations was October 29.
An interesting facet of this year’s Maharashtra election is, while the BJP is contesting the highest number of seats (148) among all parties as expected, the Congress, under pressure from allies to concede electoral space, is fighting on only 103 segments — a historic low for the grand old party in Maharashtra.
Post Haryana, the Congress has lost significant bargaining power, as was evident in prolonged parleys with coalition partners Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP).
So far, on the ruling Mahayuti side, the BJP is contesting 148; Shiv Sena 80; NCP 53; other allies 5 and the rest are undecided.
On the opposition MVA side, the Congress is fighting on 103 seats. Uddhav Sena on 89, NCP (SP) on 87; allies 6 (SP 2, PWP 2, CPM 2) and three are undecided.
In the 2019 Maharashtra elections, the Congress had fought on 147 segments, winning just 44. The undivided Shiv Sena at that time fought 126, and won 56 while the undivided NCP fought 121 and won 54.
The BJP had, in 2019, posted the highest strike rate in Maharashtra, winning 105 seats of the 164 segments it contested. Shock defeat in Haryana this year undermined the Congress’ bargaining power leading to the party having to give away seats its cadres wanted to contest.
For instance, in the Mumbai region alone, nearly 10 of the 36 seats are being contested by Uddhav’s party, causing a rebellion within the Congress. “The rebel factor will be a problem on both sides,” said a Congress functionary, adding that the BJP would also face rebel trouble.
BJP sources, however, said they were in a better position to manage dissidence.
The Tribune has, meanwhile, learnt that the BJP would be on a special watch for 43 Maharashtra constituencies, where Muslim vote is the deciding factor and could pose a challenge for the ruling combine. Here the saffron forces would hope for counter consolidation, as was seen in Haryana against the heavy dominance of one community in the Congress’ poll narrative. BJP’s IT head Amit Malviya on Wednesday said the MVA would suffer as it had conceded too many seats to the NCP (SP), whose influence was confined to Pune, Satara and parts of Solapur districts.
