Maharashtra political upheaval: Advantage BJP, a 'weakened' NCP and 'weakened' Shinde in one stroke?

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, July 2

Around mid-April, NCP supremo Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule famously predicted something “big” in political circles in the coming 15 days. “There will be two big political explosions in the next 15 days, one in Delhi and the other in Maharashtra,” she had said. Well, something “big” did happen but more than two months down the line and within her own party-the Nationalist Congress Party.

Marking a shocking vertical split in the party founded by uncle Sharad Pawar, nephew Ajit Pawar today signed documents to take oath as Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister for the third time in the past three years, this time joining the Eknath Shinde-led Maharashtra Government.

As on date, Ajit Pawar has taken oath as deputy CM three times since November 2019, twice as part of NDA and once with the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

Speculations were rife that Ajit Pawar would break away and switch over to the BJP-led NDA. Therefore, even though his move wasnot completely unexpected, it has led to a host of interestingpossibilities in the state ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

Maharashtra sends as many as 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha, the second highest after Uttar Pradesh.

Speculations are also that some senior NCP leaders may be accommodated in the next Cabinet reshuffle at the Centre.

Not the first revolt by Ajit Pawar

However, this is not the first time Ajit Pawar has “revolted” against his uncle.

In 2009, he openly criticised Sharad Pawar’s leadership style and decision-making process.

Then in 2019, after the Shiv Sena walked out of the alliance with BJP, he went on toform the government with Devendra Fadnavis claiming the support of several NCP MLAs.

Though he also claimed that Sharad Pawar was part of the deliberations with the BJP, the government collapsed and he returned to the NCP. Next he took oath as the deputy CM, this time as a part of the MVA government under Uddhav Thackeray.

Rumours that he will switch sides continued to create political buzz since the collapse of the MVA government last year, especially around the time when the Supreme Court was to pronounce a verdict on the Eknath Shinde and other Shiv Sena MLAs who had revolted against Uddhav Thackeray.

Speculations were rife that he may join the BJP to bail out the Maharashtra government in the event of an adverse ruling.

Though a split was also said to have been prevented after Sharad Pawar stepped away as the party chief, a couple of days backhe was seen openly seen criticising NCP leadership at the party forum.

Ajit Pawar is claiming the support of almost all legislators from his uncle’s party. But whether his revolt will dent NCP in the light of Sharad Pawar, for now it is advantage BJP.

Will Ajit Pawar help “cut Shinde to size”

While the writing that Ajit Pawar was inching closer to the BJP was on the wall for long; it is the timing that may interest those following the politics in the state.

There have been reports of “serious differences” between CM Eknath Shinde and his deputy, BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis. Observers in fact say BJP’s ‘Operation Lotus’ has “alsoweakened” Shinde’s position. While its future/long-term implications may be debatable, the fact is Shinde no longer has the bargaining chip he had till Saturday.

Speculations have been rife about “trust deficit” between Shinde and Fadnavis the two top men in the Sena-BJP Government that completed one year on June 30.

While Fadnavis was said to be wary of Shinde’s growing closeness to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, the real undoing was said to be an advertisement published on front pages of leading newspapers quoting a survey that pegged Shinde’s popularity “higher” than that of Fadnavis.

The animosity between thetwo was in full display at a function in Palghar when they sat next to each other without exchanging a word

Kalyan Dombivli Parliamentary seat

Sources say not just Fadnavis, several BJP leaders are angry with Shinde and one of thereasons is the Kalyan Dombivli Lok Sabha constituency represented by the CM’s son Dr Shrikant Shinde.

The Kalyan Dombivli Parliamentary seat was an issue even when the Shiv Sena was united.

Then a couple of weeks ago when Amrutha Fadnavis, wife of the deputy CM, was caught in a controversy, neither Shinde nor any leader of his faction defended them

How NCP’s voters will react to the two different factions in the party remains to be seen but a dividedparty will help BJP. Just like the fight over bow and arrow in the Shiv Sena, the confusion and fight for the NCP election symbol-an alarm clock placed on the Indian flag-will only help itsrivals.