Maharashtra battle

MAHA Vikas Aghadi (MVA) vs Mahayuti — the big battle is between two alliances in poll-bound Maharashtra, but there are some small battles being fought within both camps. The prolonged deliberations on seat-sharing among the MVA constituents — the Congress, the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) — have seen each of them vigorously seeking a bigger piece of the pie. A compromise formula of 85-85-85 for 255 of the 288 constituencies has been worked out, with some of the remaining seats set to be allocated to smaller allies such as the Samajwadi Party, AAP and Left parties. It is evident that the Congress and Uddhav’s Shiv Sena have moderated their ambitions and settled for contesting less than 100 seats each. Their climbdown has helped in resolving the stalemate days ahead of the deadline for the filing of nominations. This augurs well for the MVA, which is looking to upstage the ruling Mahayuti alliance comprising the BJP, the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) and Ajit Pawar-led NCP.

The Congress, whose impressive performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra had cemented its position as the MVA’s leading player, has lost much of its bargaining power after its shock defeat in Haryana. The lesson drawn by the MVA, which won 31 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra earlier this year, is that overconfidence can be self-destructive when the opponent is quite good at handling rebellion and factionalism. Setting aside their differences, the allies have to put up a united front against the BJP-led front in the Assembly polls.

Despite being the senior constituent of Mahayuti, the BJP has allowed the Shinde faction to have the CM’s chair. The saffron party is banking heavily on its kingmaker strategy, especially because Ajit Pawar’s NCP is considered to be the weak link of the alliance. Having played a key role in splitting both the Shiv Sena and the NCP, the challenge for the BJP now is to keep the Mahayuti flock together.