Killing of Haniyeh, Shukr can trigger wider war in West Asia
Former Ambassador
THE recent assassinations of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut, reportedly by Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, have upset US President Joe Biden. He was not expecting one of America’s closest allies, Israel, to create a geopolitical crisis entangling the US armed forces into a full-blown war less than 100 days before the presidential election. This was confirmed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken when he said on July 31 that Israel had not even informed the US about its plan to kill Haniyeh.
The Hamas leader’s slaying came at a time when the US was actively involved in negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza, the release of hostages (including some Americans) from the Hamas’ custody and preventing a regional conflict. It showed that there was no agreement between Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and the Biden administration on the objectives of the war and the terms for stopping it. Netanyahu seems to be in no mood to bring an end to the Gaza war — which has resulted in more than 40,000 civilian deaths and injuries to about one lakh people — until his aim of destroying the Hamas is achieved to regain the ‘strategic deterrence’.
The US, on the other hand, believes that a fight to the finish would do more harm than good, radicalise more Palestinians and provoke a wider war, alienating other allies and resulting in huge human casualties and losses to the global economy, trade and environment. Also, Israel does not have the capability to win such a regional war and would perforce drag the US into this conflict, which Washington does not want. America is also worried that even if its closest ally shows such little faith in it, how would it convince Iran, the Arabs and the other allies of its cause? But the pressure on President Biden from the Jewish lobby at home is such that he still can’t abandon Israel in this war, and Netanyahu knows it.
The Islamic regime in Iran is livid with Israel’s audacious behaviour. Haniyeh’s killing reveals gaping holes in the security of the Iranian state and its inability to protect its guests at the time of the inauguration of its new President, Masoud Pezeshkian, when there was the highest level of security. And Israel’s ability to take out numerous Iranian nuclear scientists and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders in and outside Iran with relative ease conveys a message that no one in Iran is outside its reach.
According to one estimate, Israel has killed about 40 commanders or senior members of the Iranian security services, including its proxies, since October 7 last year.
The Iranian leadership feels humiliated. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has vowed to avenge Haniyeh’s death and ordered ‘harsh’ punishment for Israel. Tehran’s response would have to be much bigger this time than that in April if it is to retain its credibility. According to Iranian sources, it would lead the initial attack with the involvement of Iraqi, Yemeni and Syrian proxies, targeting Israeli military objectives. It will be followed by a second wave of attacks by the Hezbollah in Lebanon. Areas deep inside Israel, such as Tel Aviv and Haifa, will be attacked. The residences of Israeli officials and the US forces in Iraq and Syria will also be targeted. The Israelis are expecting the attacks by or after August 17. The US has urged its allies, like Jordan, to talk to the Iranians to calm their anger. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also asked the Supreme Leader of Iran to restrain his response against Israel and avoid attacking Israeli civilians to prevent a wider war in West Asia.
Comfortable with political, economic and military support from the US, the Netanyahu government remains undeterred. It is willing to take risks. Netanyahu is adamant about destroying the Hamas and dealing a crushing blow to Iran and its proxies. The war strengthens Netanyahu’s otherwise weak position at home, as he is seen as a strong leader who can stand up to Israel’s enemies as well as the US. If an opportunity arises, Netanyahu would be happy to order a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, which have become anathema to Israel and others. He thinks the Americans are not doing enough about it. The governments of several countries intervening between Iran and Israel have informed Tehran that they would shoot down any incoming Iranian missile for their own security.
So far, Iran’s proxies in Iraq and Lebanon have launched limited rocket and drone strikes against Israel and American targets in the Golan Heights and the US base in Iraq, causing some fatalities and injuries. Israel has struck some Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon, mainly in border areas.
Since Iran cannot take on the US military, it is expected to continue a prolonged but controlled conflict (some kind of guerrilla war) that hurts its adversaries but does not escalate into a full-blown regional war. The ceasefire agreement that the US was trying to broker to secure the release of hostages or bring peace in the region appears elusive now. The assassinations ordered by Israel have brought the region closer to the brink of a wider war with devastating consequences for West Asia and the world at large. It is bad news for America to get ensnarled in this conflict when its priority is the Indo-Pacific and it is already supporting a full-scale war in Ukraine. It remains to be seen if the US will be able to prevail upon a recalcitrant Netanyahu to agree to its peace terms.
