J&K elections break the political stalemate

THE Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) swept the polls in the 2024 Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Of the 49 seats in the Kashmir Valley, the National Conference (NC) won 42, the Congress six and the CPI(M) one. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Independent candidates scored a duck in the Valley. In the Assembly elections held in 2014, when Jammu and Kashmir was still a state, the NC had won only 15 seats.

The BJP fared poorly in this election despite the bifurcation of the erstwhile state, the gerrymandering of legislative seats to increase the political weightage of Jammu and the provision of nominated seats given by the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act in Parliament. As per the latest delimitation of the Assembly seats, six seats were added to Jammu and only one to the Valley.

But none of these tactics has worked as there is acute unhappiness with the downsizing of the state, loss of jobs and removal of Article 35A, allowing outsiders to purchase land and invest in large projects in Jammu and Kashmir.

All this has heightened the perception of political dispossession, compounded by economic dispossession, leading to severe local dissension. The local economy and livelihoods have also continued to suffer under pressure of militancy and turmoil in the region.

Elections held this autumn signal the first sign of political change after the loss of statehood on August 5, 2019. Elections, even with the restricted powers of a union territory, have been widely welcomed as an elected government is obviously better than a rule by the Centre and an appointed Lieutenant-Governor, given the administrative dispossession it entails.

Kashmiri voters took an active part in the polls as boycotting them might have given the BJP a political advantage. They chose to participate in the electoral process because they saw it as their first chance to voice their dissatisfaction with the removal of Article 370. But the restoration of Article 370 is not really a big issue for now. Both the parties and people are focused on the restoration of statehood, which is more attainable than the restoration of Article 370.

There is serious discontent with the BJP despite the Central government having managed to bring about a semblance of normalcy to the state. During a recent visit to Kashmir, we did see signs of normalcy even though it was impossible to ignore the widespread perception that “normalcy is enforced” by suppressing dissent and protest. Schools and colleges are open; shops, stores and cafes are doing brisk business; shikaras are in full swing; tourists are milling around the Residency Road, Polo View, Dal Lake and the magnificent Mughal Gardens — Nishat, Chasma Shahi, Pari Mahal, etc. All this, however, has not added up to a tourist boom, as claimed by official spokesman. But there are enough tourists to sustain trade and business, and there is hope that more would come in the winter months.

It was clear from our conversations in Srinagar that the most striking feature of this election was the rejection of the BJP’s ‘Kashmir project’. The vote was against the BJP, and not necessarily for the NC. Voters supported the NC because it was the only viable option to prevent the BJP from coming to power. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was not a worthy option because it had aligned with the BJP to form a government in the state in 2014-15. But if the NC fails to deliver on its poll promises, the PDP remains a default option.

Hopeful of sweeping Jammu, the BJP’s strategy was to bank on some ‘Independent’ candidates to reach the majority to form a government. The Kashmiris saw through these machinations and united behind the NC to avoid a situation in which smaller players could be used to downsize the dominant political formations. This time, they were determined to not fall victim to these tactical divisions through the creation of new political factions and Independent candidates seen to be proxies of the ruling dispensation. For them, it was important to have a government which they could regard as their own and one that better represented their concerns.

This election took place in the backdrop of the region’s ongoing struggle to regain statehood, but it is noteworthy that religion does not form the basis of this demand. It is animated by a common history shared by Jammu and Kashmir. But there’s no denying that this issue has occupied the hearts and minds of Kashmiris. The reading down of Articles 370 and 35A and downgrading of the state was seen as a denial of their identity, dignity and self-respect and a hallmark of their political subjugation.

So, in this election, the voters rallied behind parties and candidates who promised the restoration of statehood. The NC and the Congress have promised to restore statehood and stated their readiness to pursue legal action in the Supreme Court, if required. The NC leadership has stressed that this issue is a cornerstone of its political agenda. That was a major reason for its success in marshalling support in this election. However, the long-term success of the NC is contingent on its ability to deliver on its poll promise to undo the changes made five years ago.

The Kashmiris have voted unequivocally to reject the demotion of their state into a union territory. As expected, the Jammu and Kashmir Cabinet passed a resolution for statehood at its very first meeting. The resolution was immediately approved by the LG, indicating significant changes in the region’s complex political landscape impelled by an assertion of democratic rights.

The autumn election (when the chinars begin to change colour) has broken the political stalemate in Kashmir, symbolising a narrative of change and hope. The way forward is to sustain the political process by balancing demands for restoring statehood with the need for reconciliation and development and an acceptance of the region’s historically unique identity of Kashmiriyat — a culture where all religions mingle.

However, only Parliament can restore statehood. It will have to amend or repeal the 2019 Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, which divided the state into two and demoted the successors as union territories. This should be done at the earliest to build trust — trust in democracy, humanism and equal rights.