Low voter turnout in Jalandhar West byelection confuses poll pundits

Deepkamal Kaur

Jalandhar, July 11

A fall in the poll percentage of the Jalandhar West by-election by 9.3 per cent as compared to the vote per cent in the same segment in Jalandhar Lok Sabha elections last month has put everyone in a quandary about the likely outcome. Counting for the votes is slated for July 13 at 8 am at Lyallpur Khalsa College for Women.

Even psephologists are unable to decipher the likely outcome, especially since only 94,543 votes (54.98 per cent) have been cast in the election. There were 15 candidates, including three main from the Congress, AAP and the BJP, in the poll fray.

A close perusal of the voting pattern indicates that certain pockets where from these candidates hailed had a good turnout. If the Bhagat community concentrated at Bhargo Camp (backing AAP candidate Mohinder Bhagat) voted in large numbers in their area (63 to 73 per cent in eight polling booths), so was the turnout in the two booths of Jallowal Abadi from where Congress candidate Surinder Kaur hails. The vote per cent in these two booths was 60.11 and 69.53 per cent.

Bootan Mandi booth, where the voters were expected to have favoured Surinder Kaur, too recorded a 70 per cent turnout. A low for her is the fact that the three booths in Guru Ravidass Nagar polled just 48 to 51 per cent votes.

The polling remained moderate even in Basti Danishmandan from where BJP candidate Sheetal Angural hails. There were 15 booths in this vast area, where vote per cent fluctuates between 50 per cent and 68.61 per cent. The four booths in Raseela Nagar in the same area polled 60 to 69 per cent votes.

The booths where the turnout remained dismally low was Shaheed Babu Labh Singh Nagar, New Dilbagh Nagar Extension, Basti Nau, Basti Sheikh and Basti Mithu where the BJP and SAD candidate Surjit Kaur could have expected some gains. New Deol Nagar also had a dismally low turnout between 38 per cent and a maximum of 58 per cent in its five booths.

Going by the fact that just 94,000 votes were cast, the general opinion of bigwigs of all parties is that almost all three main parties would have touched the 25,000 mark and thus polled 75,000 votes.

“The key point is as to how the remaining 19,000 votes would have split among these three parties and the rest of 12 candidates,” said Ravinder Dhir, a BJP leader.