Joining the poll dots in Kashmir: J&K Assembly Elections

In March 2020, when three former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Ministers were under detention and a majority of political leaders in Kashmir were yet to come to terms with the abrogation of Article 370 in August the previous year, former Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leader Altaf Bukhari floated the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party. It comprised several former legislators belonging to the PDP and the Congress.

In a short time, PDP — whose chief Mehbooba Mufti was heading a coalition government with the BJP till 2018 — faced a vertical split and most of its leadership sided with Bukhari. In the Valley, the development was seen as yet another attempt to fragment votes.

Apni Party, that boasted of having over a dozen former MLAs, had the full support of the BJP, but failed to make a mark in its first electoral test — the District Development Council (DDC) elections in 2020. The results of the recent Lok Sabha elections came as another setback. Both its candidates — Zafar Iqbal Manhas from Anantnag-Rajouri and Mohammad Ashraf Mir from Srinagar — lost their deposit. They failed to get leads from any of the 36 Assembly constituencies in their parliamentary seats, not even in the home segments.

As Jammu and Kashmir braces for the three-phase Assembly elections, the first since 2014 and the abrogation of Article 370, the National Conference (NC) and the PDP appear to be the dominating forces.

Opposition leaders say that in 2019, the Centre tried to create a new political structure in the Valley, one that is at the beck and call of New Delhi or the BJP. There was also an attempt to patronise a new set of young leaders who could challenge the “dynasts” like the Abdullahs and the Muftis.

“This is not the first time the Centre has toyed with this experiment. It has always tried to put in place parties and leaders who are loyal to New Delhi. They have tried to thrust political parties and leaders on the people and that is why they have always failed,” says senior PDP leader Tahir Sayeed.

Five years down the line, the new political structure seems to be crumbling under its own weight. The “chosen ones” have failed to gain traction and the political landscape of the Valley still appears to be dominated by the NC and the PDP. The reason for this failure, according to several leaders, is the ‘BJP tag’. “The Centre hasn’t learnt any lessons from the past. In reality, it is the people who created leaders in Kashmir,” says Sayeed.

Srinagar-based political commentator Prof Noor Baba believes people are wise enough to understand who stands for what in the Valley. “There has been a certain amount of distrust between New Delhi and the people of Kashmir particularly since 2019,” he says, adding that anything the Centre does is usually viewed with suspicion. “The Apni Party’s debacle appears to explain that very clearly,” he adds.

Prof Baba argues that the same set of leaders used to win as candidates of the traditional parties, “but because they were now seen as backed (by Delhi), people did not vote for them. This also goes for the poor showing of (former Chief Minister) Ghulam Nabi Azad’s party”.

Azad formed the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) in 2022. The party faced its first defeat in the recent Lok Sabha polls and its founding leaders have been leaving the party one after the other.

Realising the damage done by the BJP tag, Bukhari is now making efforts to ensure that people do not link Apni Party with it.

Since 2019, the Centre, political observers say, has put in lots of resources, including media coverage and access to corridors of power, to forge an alternative leadership to the traditional satraps. They, however, have failed to make any distinct difference. “There are many who are seen as BJP’s blue-eyed boys. It thought they would replace the leadership here and help it come to power. People have seen through their motives,” says Sayeed.

A common refrain is that what the Centre has managed to achieve is the fragmentation of the Kashmiri vote. While Kashmir has seen the formation of new parties with much fanfare, the same cannot be said about Jammu. Prof Baba says the BJP would like to see the division of votes in Kashmir and consolidation in Jammu, especially in the Hindu belt. “They seem to have somehow succeeded in doing that to a certain extent. While you can see the emergence of a large number of political parties in the Valley, no such parties have emerged in the Jammu region,” he reasons. “The Valley vote would get further divided while the Jammu vote remains by and large consolidated.”

Now, as the new government is likely to get formed next month, Prof Baba says the BJP would try to prevent any resolution getting passed in the new Assembly “as that goes against the policies that it pursued in recent years... elected representatives passing any resolution against the 2019 decision would be significant in terms of its messaging. The BJP wouldn’t want that”.

Author and academician Radha Kumar echoes his views. She refers to how Union Home Minister Amit Shah kept saying that an “alternative” political leadership would emerge from the panchayats. But, she says, “that did not happen”.

“In any case, it is not the business of any government to create an alternative political force. That is the business of the people of the state, just as it is for the rest of India,” she argues.

Radha Kumar adds that the political parties that came after 2019 have failed because it was “obvious that these parties had the patronage of the ruling BJP”. It is unlikely, she feels, that anyone in Kashmir would take them seriously, “because at critical moments, they remained silent”.

“On the other hand, the traditional parties did oppose the draconian steps taken by the Modi administration. And, when they were in office, they retained some autonomy in decision-making in terms of governance and the peace process, especially the PDP, which played an active role in India-Pakistan confidence-building,” she says.

New dimensions

The Assembly election is witnessing new trends. The banned Jamaat Islami Jammu and Kashmir is fielding Independent candidates. It is the first time it is contesting elections since 1987. Back then, the outfit had contested under the banner of the Muslim United Front, a conglomerate of political parties, social groups and individuals. After allegations of rigging, the cadre-based outfit had decided to stay away from elections.

Also, the party led by jailed Lok Sabha MP Engineer Rashid is contesting almost all seats, and might impact some outcomes. “Unlike traditional parties, Engineer’s party has no organisational structure. For the first phase, Jamaat could not get many candidates, which indicates that they don’t enjoy good support among the cadres… so, it needs to be seen how things play out,” says a Srinagar-based political expert.

The pre-poll alliance between the NC and the Congress, the two parties feel, would dent the BJP’s electoral prospects in Jammu region, where it is going to be a direct contest between the alliance candidates and the BJP.

In the 2014 election, the BJP won 25 seats, all from the Jammu region. Apart from contesting all seats in the Jammu region this time, the BJP is contesting several seats in Kashmir. Experts say while the BJP is not expecting to win any seats, it might be focusing on increasing the vote share.

In the Valley, political activist Irfan Gull believes, people would be expressing opposition to the Centre’s policies in this election, and governance issues are likely to become a secondary concern. Gull lists his reasons: “Government policies in Jammu and Kashmir are largely aimed at disenfranchising people politically, economically, and socially... individuals who voice opposition and dissent have effectively been criminalised.”